It's Christmas which, for me, means the return of NBA basketball. This past season was, for me, the best I can remember. The league is exciting to watch, the stars are great, and, while you can narrow the list of title contenders to 5 or 6 before the season begins, you can't say with 90% certainty which of 2 or 3 teams will win the title (for most of the 90's, you knew on day 1 that, unless Jordan or Pippen tore an ACL, the Bulls were gonna be champs; in the 80's, the question was whether it was gonna be the Lakers or the Celtics winning the title (with the Sixers and then the Pistons occasionally sprinkled in). Last season, you had a list of candidates, but there really wasn't a team that you KNEW was going to be on top on day 1. The Lakers were definitely a slight favorite to repeat, but the Heat were always a possibility, the Spurs (my personal pick at the start...) were in the mix, the Celtics were still a strong contender, and teams like the Mavs, the Thunder and even the Magic and Blazers (if everything went right) were a possibility.
This year, I think the picture's a little different. Brandon Roy's sad retirement puts the Blazers out of the picture in the short run (and Greg Oden's 25th straight season-ending injury throws their medium-term future into doubt), and I think the Spurs, and probably even the Celtics and Lakers (unless they pick up Dwight Howard) have been aged out of contention. I'm in a minority here (I think), but I also think losing Tyson Chandler instantly takes the Mavs out of contention to repeat. So who can I imagine winning it? Well, the Heat are obvious favorites. Another year together for the big three (I refuse to capitalize that...), and they added a really solid outside shooter/perimeter defender in Shane Battier. Also, they have Eddy Curry and Juwan Howard. While I think the Heat should be a better team, I think the biggest problem for them still hasn't been addressed-- they're pretty weak in the middle. The best candidates to beat them are teams that do have that interior presence. Their main challengers in the East are the Bulls. They've got the league's reigning MVP in Derrick Rose; they've still got one of the more intriguing frontcourts in the league with Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng backed up by Omer Asik and Taj Gibson. They've got solid three-point shooters in Deng and Kyle Korver, and they addressed what I thought was their biggest need by adding a scoring two with a solid mid-range game in Rip Hamilton (though he's definitely on the downside of his career, I think he'll thrive next to Rose). But while the Bulls have a superstar and some nice pieces, they've really only got a single star player. If Rose isn't on his game, no one else can really step up and take over. Boozer's a solid piece and a good scorer, but you don't go into a game thinking about how to stop Carlos Boozer. On a big day, he'll give you 22 and 10. On an off day, it'll be 12 and 6. But you'll never come out of a game thinking that you were killed by Carlos Boozer. Luol Deng's the wing version of Boozer. Joakim Noah's a terrific piece, but he's a defense and rebounding guy-- he's very good at those things, but I get the impression Noah is a solid individual defender, but not a dominant one in the Tyson Chandler mold-- I don't think he has Chandler's defensive communication ability and basketball IQ (though he's better on the offensive end), and I don't think he makes his teammates better on that end in the same way Chandler does. But I think their quality and depth make them a threat.
The other team I see as a threat to the Heat in the East is a dark horse-- the Knicks. This was a good team last year, but not a serious threat in May. The reason for that was obvious-- they couldn't stop anyone. They've got two of the five or six best scorers in the league in Amar'e and Melo. Each of those guys is... average at best on D. And Amar'e's also an indifferent rebounder (he'll put up the numbers there, but that's largely been just because over the course of a game someone will get boards, and the Knicks have been awful at center for a long time). Landry Fields is a nice piece (good defender, and probably the best rebounding 2 in the game) when he isn't asked to do too much on offense (and he's not in New York, with the two headliners dominating the ball on offense). Point guard is a question mark-- I never thought Chauncey Billups was the answer, but Iman Shumpert and Toney Douglas are both rotation players for me. If Baron Davis decides he wants to play ball this year and doesn't look like a beached whale on the court, I'm not entirely sure he can still turn it on anymore even if he wants to. But I think what makes the Knicks a contender is Chandler. He instantly takes a below-average defensive team and makes it potentially very good. Chandler protects the rim better than any center in the league not named Dwight Howard, is one of the best positional big men (if not THE best) in the game today, and is great at putting his perimeter guys into position. In short, he's just what the Knicks need on that end. Melo and Amar'e aren't the awful defenders some people like to paint them as, I think, but having a guy behind them who can erase their mistakes (Amar'e is a great athlete, but he's out of position frequently enough that guys like Boozer and David West, not to mention Zach Randolph, can eat him for lunch on the offensive end). With two guys who, on a given night, are capable of going off for 40, and a center who, if he stays healthy, changes the game defensively, this is a team that can be a threat. I also think they match up exceptionally well with the Heat-- Chandler made life hell for the Big Three in the Finals, and, while LeBron and DWade are terrific at closing down top scoring points and wings, neither of them, and especially not Bosh, can really match up with Stoudemire on that end. The Knicks' biggest problems are point guard and depth inside. The two bigs in their rotation after Chandler and Stoudemire are Jared Jeffries (ew) and Josh Harrellson (somehow even worse). That's BAD. They really need to shore that up to be a real contender. I also think they need at least a league-average point guard-- Douglas and Shumpert are solid combo/rotation types, but I don't think either is a starting point on a championship team. Beyond that, I think the East doesn't really have any more real contenders: the Celtics are too old, the Magic have Jameer Nelson and a bunch of garbage next to Dwight Howard, and the Hawks are a group of role players looking for a piece to build around.
In the West, I think the Thunder are the favorites. They've got a guy who I honestly think is already one of the league's greatest ever scorers in Kevin Durant (and he's getting better; today, he was finishing at the rim- scary). Russell Westbrook is dynamic off the dribble and a handful for any team (including his own when he's not in control). Serge Ibaka is an athletic shot-blocker who can hit the 18 footer. Kendrick Perkins gives them a big body who can battle inside and make life hard for traditional bigs. James Harden gives them offense off the bench, while Thabo Sefolosha and Eric Maynor are plus defenders. I think they're a complete squad, and they're another squad that matches up well with the Heat. The biggest challengers, for me, are another dark horse-- the Clippers. Lamar Odom or not, the Mavs just aren't good enough defensively without Chandler, while the Lakers, without Odom and with Kobe aging, don't have the depth to compete anymore. The Spurs aren't getting any younger, and the Nuggets don't have a superstar (and half their squad is stuck in China). Which leaves the Clips. To me, this is the most intriguing roster in the league. Chris Paul, if he's health, is the best point in the league (yes, better than Rose). No one can contain him off the dribble, and he makes guys around him better in a way that no other point in the league does (for me only Deron Williams comes close). Blake Griffin is an exciting talent who's a top-5 athlete in the league (though, watching him, it really doesn't look like he's taken his game to the next level; he still can't hit the 15 footer with any consistency, doesn't have a go-to post move, and doesn't look comfortable off the dribble if he can't jump over the guy manning him) who should look even better running the pick-and-roll with Paul and catching his alley-oops. DeAndre Jordan is a terrific shot blocker who makes life hard on driving wings (though he's a horrible free throw shooter). The rest of the roster is bizarrely constructed, though, which is what makes this such an intriguing squad. If Caron Butler is back and healthy, he's a solid wing scorer who can defend most 2/3s, while Ryan Gomes is a big body. But the quality depth is almost entirely at one position: the point. Mo Williams is an above-average starting point on a good team, but at 6-1, he can't guard the 2, and you can't really play him and the 6-0 Paul together without giving up a whole lot of size defensively, so I have a hard time imagining him giving them more than 15 quality minutes a night. Then, if that's not enough, they've also got a promising backup point prospect in Eric Bledsoe (who's injured right now) AND a good vet (who I think is best used as a backup) in Chauncey Billups. Not to mention Randy Foye is still on the roster. Which, by my count, gives the Clips four point guards... zero of whom can guard the 2. All of which makes me interested to see what their rotation looks like.
Either way, I'm excited to see how this season unwinds. Shortened or not, it's gonna be a great season.
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