I'm a little late to the party on the Lin story-- it's been a busy few weeks, but he's definitely the biggest story in sports right now, so I feel like a take is in order. First, here's what Lin isn't: he's not Tim Tebow. People are quick to draw the comparison because both are unique (Tebow for his in-your-face brand of Christianity and Lin for his ethnicity, though Lin is also apparently a rather observant Christian) stories whose bumps in playing time have coincided with turnarounds for their respective teams. But there are big differences both in expectations and in performance: Tebow was a first-round pick who won a Heisman in college: everyone and their mom knew who he was. NFL types certainly suggested that he was picked too high, but he didn't exactly come out of nowhere. Lin, on the other hand, definitely did. Those that follow basketball knew about him over the last few years. He was the best player in the Ivy League last year (averaging something like 16 points and 5 assists a game), and was a minor story in the sports blogs even then because he's Asian. But most of us that knew about him figured he'd go by the wayside: he'd get a look in the D-League, maybe be a decent player there, and probably ship off to Europe after a year or two if he decided to play ball again. And we'd never hear about him again. Frankly, I would have been a little surprised had he been drafted. For a year and a half, that's more or less the path his career took: he bounced between the D-League and the end of the Warriors' bench last year, and came to New York this year, presumably to fill out the roster. Then he got into a game and... the history's still being written there.
The biggest reason Lin isn't Tebow, though, is on the court. Because, while Tebow is a mediocre at best (and even that's generous) quarterback who happened to preside over a winning team, Lin is a good basketball player. He's not a fluke. He won't go back to being a guy who sits at the end of the bench, and he'll possibly be an impact player for a long time.
Now, about a week and a half or so ago, just as Lin had put in his fifth or so straight good game, my friend Steve texted me and asked how many guys I thought had better MVP odds than Lin. Since it was 7:30 in the morning and the text woke me up, I grumpily responde, "half the league, he's only played 5 games; if he keeps it up maybe 5 or 6", rolled over, and went back to sleep. In true Steve fashion, he calculated how many guys were in the league, and posted on hi Facebook that I thought there were 225 guys with better MVP odds than Lin. Thanks, Steve. But then I actually thought about it, and I realized it was a question to really think about.
Now, there's no doubt that Lin has been the pivotal piece in the Knicks' turnaround. He's averaged well over 20 points a night (way more than he averaged 2 years ago in the Ivy League!), gotten the stagnant Knicks moving the ball on offense, and keyed a huge resurgence. They've gone from a losing team to one that looks like it could make the playoffs. Of course, how Lin will coexist with Carmelo Anthony is still an open question. The Knicks' biggest problem pre-Lin was their stagnant offense: they had no facilitator at the point, Melo dominated the ball (and jacked up a ton of shots, and Amar'e Stoudemire looked not only out of sync rhythm-wise, but also like he'd lost some explosiveness. Now, there's not much Lin can do if every time the ball goes in to Melo, it doesn't come out. But if Melo can become a more efficient piece who maximizes what he does with his touches instead of dominating the ball, this could be a legitimate team.
As for Lin himself, well, while I definitely don't think he's a fluke, I doubt we'll see him put up 25 and 10 every night. I think he'll level off into a Mike Conley type of point who can give you 16-18 points and 7 or so assists a night. His second time through, other points will stop treating Jeremy Lin night as a joke and pick up on his tendencies. But that doesn't mean he won't still be a very useful player. I think my biggest gripe about his game is his D. Even with a top-notch rim protector in Tyson Chandler behind him, Lin is a big minus on that end. Lost in the Linsanity is that the guys across from him have been putting up numbers almost as big as his. Last game, Lin had 21 and 9... but Deron Williams went for 38 points and the Knicks lost. Now, Deron Williams is a fantastic point, but that's still not a good performance. Two games before that, against New Orleans, Lin went for 26... but Greivis Vasquez went for 15 and 11 and the Knicks lost. And, as much as I love what Vasquez did for Maryland in college, he's not an NBA starting point, and that's a bad stat line to be giving up to him. Those kinds of lines are ugly... and I don't necessarily see them improving.
Of course, that doesn't mean that Lin isn't very much a plus player-- the closest comparison I see for him in the league is Steve Nash-- they're both adept at running the pick and roll, can put the ball in the hoop, and make guys around them better (though Nash dominates the ball more). And, like Lin, Nash is a major liability on D. That definitely keeps him outside of the elite point guard conversation for me... but it doesn't mean that he's not an unexpectedly valuable piece on what could be a decent team.
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