Why Tim Tebow Stinks

Ever since he's been starting for the Broncos, I've been insisting that Tim Tebow is a horrible quarterback.  Now, the media is all over how great Tebow is now, since the Broncos are 5-1 since he became the starter, compared to 1-4 before he became their guy.  But let's be clear-- the Broncos are winning despite Tebow, not because of him.  To figure out why, all you have to do is watch Tebow play.  And it's not unfair to say that the guy is awful.  The job of the quarterback is to complete passes and move his team down the field.  And Tim Tebow is in the discussion for the worst in the league at doing that.  He's had one game in which he's completed half of his passes.  For the season, he's completed 45%.  In the NFL, 55% is a bad completion percentage for your quarterback.  JaMarcus Russell is widely recognized as a massive bust.  For his career, he's completed 52% of his passes.  Tebow hasn't completed more than 50% of his passes in a single GAME.  But, you might say, Tebow can run.  Doesn't that have value? Well sure.  But this isn't college, where you can run the option.  Vince Young can run, too.  He was benched by the Titans and let go because the team wasn't moving the ball.  But Vince Young's completed 58% of his passes for his career.

Now, the nicest thing you can say about Tebow is that he doesn't throw interceptions.  And it's true-- he's only thrown 1 pick in 143 attempts.  But it goes a little deeper than that if you watch the games.  Tebow's only thrown 1 pick largely because he's so inaccurate, he doesn't just put the ball where his receiver can't get it-- he puts it where NO ONE can catch it.  Tebow's the quarterback who's not allowed to throw.  Which is a completely absurd concept-- it's the equivalent of an NBA point guard who isn't allowed to dribble.  Against the Chiefs, he completed TWO passes.  And they won.  They're second to last in the league in passing yards (to the Jags, who threw an overmatched rookie QB into the fire on a team with no line).  They lead the league in rushing, but are STILL 25th in the league in offense because Tebow's such a terrible passer.

Tebow defenders say two things.  First, that he's winning games.  And yeah, that's true.  But football's a team sport.  And he's actually got pretty good pieces around him.  The Broncos' offensive line is terrific (as I mentioned, they're leading the league in rushing).  Their defense, led by rookie stud Von Miller (who wears sweet hipster glasses; see pic below) has really stepped it up lately.  And the teams they've been playing just aren't particularly good (the only good team they played was the Lions; they got run out of the building).  The offense, since Tebow took over, is actually playing worse.  We can exclude the first Chargers game (since both QBs played). The 4 games before that, the Broncos scored 20 or more points 3 times.  Since then, they've scored more than 20 points once.  And that included a one-play drive that was a touchdown run and a punt return for a touchdown.  The defense has also been much better.  In the first 5 games, they allowed fewer than 20 points once.  In the last 6, they've allowed more than 20 twice (and one of those wouldn't have gotten to 20 if it hadn't been for a Denver turnover handing Oakland the ball on the Denver 15).  In the last 3 games, they've allowed 10, 13, and 13.  So the defense has really stepped it up.

                                               Von Miller, Superstud

The other defense Tebow loyalists have is that he just "wills his team to victory."  Well that's stupid.  By that standard, Rudy was a great player because he made everyone else at Notre Dame work harder.  At the end of the day, being "inspiring" is great if you're a good player.  If you stink, it doesn't go very far.  And if guys aren't giving 100% when someone else is playing quarterback, when those guys are professional athletes, well, they're not earning their paychecks.  So let's be clear-- Tim Tebow is a terrible football player.  If the Broncos want to be a player, they should be pushing to replace him.  Of course, it's possible to win despite your quarterback-- the Bears went to the Super Bowl with Rex Grossman under center (though it's unfair to compare Grossman to Tebow; Rex might be a turnover machine, but, unlike Tebow, he can move the ball); the Ravens won it with Trent Dilfer as their starter.  But no one in their right mind thinks those teams were winning because of their QBs.

So let's be real-- Tim Tebow is a terrible QB who the media is making a big deal of because he was a Boy Scout and is on a team that's winning despite him stinking it up.

EPL Week 1/NFL Thoughts

EPL Week 1
The English Premier League kicked off its season this weekend, which marks the beginning of the new sports year.  This summer was particularly brutal for me, in large part because 1) I was in Kansas, which has some of the nicest people in the world, but where I didn't really know anyone and didn't find people to watch sports with, and 2) It was one of those off summers where no major sporting events were going on.  No World Cup, no Olympics, just the moderately small-time Copa America, where the US got pounded by Mexico and Bob Bradley got the boot.  Once the NBA Finals (which were phenomenal this year) ended, there was nothing.  Not even NFL and NBA free agency, since the leagues were both locked out most of the summer.  Sure, there was baseball, but 1) The Orioles will never, ever go to the playoffs, 2) The season has too many games, and 3) Baseball is mostly boring.

So I'm thankful that sports are officially back.  But, despite that, the first week of the EPL season was brutal.  There are still 2 more matches left (Spurs-Everton and Man City-Swansea), but the early ones were snoozefests.  Arsenal played a typical Arsenal game-- held the ball for 60 minutes without putting a shot on target, Gervinho gave Joey Barton a love tap on the face and got himself sent off on his debut, and Arsenal looked like a candidate to finish 8th with Fabregas and Nasri on the way out.  United also played a typical United game against West Brom-- didn't look particularly good, struggled the entire time, then got bailed out by a late own goal.  Liverpool managed to draw Sunderland at home.  Sure, Luis Suarez missed a penalty... but he dove flat on his face to win it, so he got what he deserved.  Have I mentioned that I can't stand Luis Suarez? The guy spends more time on the ground than Cristiano Ronaldo, and is possibly even more arrogant.  But, on the field, Luis Suarez is a good player, but he can't carry Cristiano Ronaldo's bags.  As much as I love Diego Forlan, I pull against Uruguay because I want Luis Suarez to lose.

But the real clincher this weekend was the Chelsea match.  They're my favorite team, but I'm afraid that they're headed for (another) downer of a season.  This was an ugly performance.  Not just because the team dropped points at Stoke (they're a tough road match), or because there was no score.  Heck, even Fernando Torres looked pretty good today.  No, the big issue was the lack of invention in midfield that got me.  Since I've been following them, Chelsea have been a ruthlessly efficient team.  The midfielders have been powerful, clinical and strong-- guys like Makelele, Essien, Lampard, Ballack and company covered ground.  And Drogba has always been a beast up front, terrorizing center backs with his size, strength and speed.  But there's never been much in the way of creativity.  Against tightly-disciplined sides like United, they dominated play more often than not, but a creative player to unlock the defense was always lacking.  Lampard's a fine midfielder, and he scores a lot of goals, but he's not a playmaker.  Neither is Essien.  And the only effort Chelsea made to bring in a creative midfielder, Scolari bought Deco's corpse, which played well for about 3 weeks, got tired, and then found itself buried on the end of the bench.  Anyone watching knew the squad needed that creative spark-- a Modric or a Sneijder or a Pastore (though I think Pastore is a big risk).  Instead... they added another striker.  And while I love Romelu Lukaku's potential, this gives the team, by my count, five central strikers (Drogba, Torres, Anelka, Sturridge, Lukaku), only one of whom can play in his natural position at a time.  Meanwhile, the creative midfielders include... Yossi Benayoun.  And only him.  Benayoun's OK when he's healthy (OK, not special; for a Champions League team, he's a squad player), but he's coming back from a torn achilles.  If this squad doesn't pick up another creative mid, I'm afraid it'll be a lot more of the same-- a lot of possession, danger on set pieces, rock-solid defending and goaltending, but none of the spark that you need to win trophies.  Ideally, I would unload Anelka, buy Modric or Sneijder, and go with a 4-3-3 (or 4-2-3-1, depending on how high you play the wide forwards) with a back four of Cole/Terry/Luiz/Ivanovic (Bosingwa), a midfield trio of Lampard, Essien (or Ramires until Essien's back from injury) and Modric/Sneijder, and a central striker (rotation of Drogba and Torres), with two of Malouda, Sturridge, and Salomon Kalou playing in the wide-forward spots.  Then I'd sell Anelka and ship Lukaku out on loan to pick up some experience.  That lineup gives you a nice balance of wide and central players, goalscorers, destroyers, and creators, and some push from the back too in Cole.  As is, though, the squad is shallow and lacks invention.  Without another creative piece, they won't challenge for the league.

NFL
At the same time, the NFL preseason is up and running.  I've never really liked the preseason.  To me, the games are worthless and a waste of time.  The league insists on four preseason games because NFL fans are so rabid, they'll still go out to the stadiums even though the games don't matter and convince themselves that their third-string QB is the best thing since sliced bread.  I really realized just how much of a joke it is when the Redskins hired Steve Spurrier.  Under Spurrier, we buried everyone in the preseason.  Danny Wuerffel (Wawful to Skins fans) looked like Peyton Manning 2.0 all preseason, Sugar Shane Matthews tore defenses apart, and the University of Florida national championship duo of Reidel Anthony and Jacquez Green was massive.  Then the REAL season started.  All the coaches who ran the Madden playbook in the preseason dusted off their real plays, starters got to stay on the field for more than a drive, and the Skins fell off a cliff.

So this preseason, I'm "paying attention" mostly to see who gets hurt (Mikel Leshoure, my backup fantasy running back, is already on the shelf for the year) and which players I remember from college are on NFL rosters (Josh Portis, infamous at the University of Maryland for coming in for 5 plays a game to run right, then cheating on a quiz and transferring to California University of Pennsylvania, is on the Seahawks now).  So even though the Skins beat defending AFC champ Pittsburgh in the first preseason game and Rex Grossman tore it up, I'm still thinking we're gonna stink this year because 1) Rex Grossman is horrible, and came into camp fat, and 2) There really isn't a single impact player on either side of the ball for this team.  I wouldn't mind a 2-14 season (so long as at least one and preferably both of the wins was over Dallas), so long as it meant drafting Andrew Luck.  But, knowing our track record, we'll go 5-11, pick 6th, and trade for Tarvaris Jackson next summer.