With only 6 or 7 games left for most teams, the picture is coming into focus. The Bulls have all but locked up the conference, and they'll almost definitely be playing either New York or Philly. If I'm them, I prefer Philly. Not only have the Sixers been playing pretty poorly (4-6 in their last 10), but they're just not built for the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, they're a nice story-- Doug Collins has got them playing great basketball, they've got a good number of quality players without having a star, and they lock down on D and play unselfishly on offense. But they don't have anyone who can take over games, and, frankly, they're just short on talent. Sad as it is to see them go, whether they face the Bulls or the Heat, they'll be out in 5 games if they're lucky.
The more compelling case is the Knicks. For most of the season, they've looked pretty bad. They've been disjointed on offense, Amar'e Stoudemire has clearly looked old and out of place, struggling to mesh with Carmelo Anthony (who hasn't exactly been lighting it up himself for most of the year) and getting his shot blocked way more than he ever did back when he was Blake Griffin lite in his early Phoenix years. And they've given major minutes to guys like Toney Douglas (oof) and Jared Jeffries (double oof) for major parts of the season. Then their season hit two distinct turning points. First came Linsanity, when Jeremy Lin came out of nowhere to improbably average 25 and 10 for a couple of weeks and give the franchise mouth to mouth. Predictably, Lin dropped off that torrid pace and the Knicks slid back to Earth. At which point the franchise canned Mike D'Antoni and replaced him with his assistant and former Hawks coach Mike Woodson, who's really D'Antoni's polar opposite. While D'Antoni is an offensive guru, Woodson is very much a defensive coach. And defense really hadn't even been the Knicks' problem for most of the season-- it was their utter inability to mesh offensively. But then Woodson took over and, even though Lin went out (probably for the season) with a torn meniscus), this has looked like a dangerous team. Melo discovered his pride and has been on a tear lately-- tonight he dropped 42 and 9 boards on the Heat, who are a terrific defensive team, shot over 50% , and only turned it over once. They've still got the league's second-best defensive center in Tyson Chandler. and with Iman Shumpert, they've got a very capable stopper coming off the bench. If Anthony decides he wants to lock down in the playoffs, this won't be an easy matchup, not for the Bulls and not for the Heat. I still think both of those teams have too much firepower to throw at the Knicks to lose a series, but I think it would go at least 6 games.
Speaking of the Heat, another year, another very good regular season... but I still don't trust them to win a title. LeBron James is the league's most talented player, a 6'8" athletic freak who can pass like Magic, get to the hoop at will, and is one of the league's 5 best perimeter defenders. Then you've got another franchise player in Dwyane Wade, who can take over a game with his ability to slash to the hoop and finish through contact. But the rest of that team is... kind of a wreck. Yeah, they've got Chris Bosh. But Bosh looks exceptionally out of place. He actually performed pretty well in stretches during last year's Finals, but he's plainly underutilized on that team. With Wade and James dominating the ball, he's not going to get many isolation opportunities on the wing. He's not a guy who moves particularly well without the ball to benefit from James's ability to get to the hoop and dish. And he's not a great passer. For a guy his size, he's not even much of a rebounder. So what you've got is a potential go-to scorer playing third fiddle and, unlike someone like Scottie Pippen who had go-to ability but was overshadowed by a better go-to guy, he doesn't do enough other things well to really bring all that much to the table. And the rest of that squad... the less said the better. Some of them are alright on defense, but they don't exactly have a Tyson Chandler on the roster. And offensively, they're just ugly. Today against the Knicks, outside of James, Wade and Bosh, no one scored more than FIVE points. On 7/21 shooting. Mario Chalmers could be a decent backup, but he's playing starter minutes. Udonis Haslem is another solid backup playing more than he should. Shane Battier is finished. Mike Miller's prime, if he ever had one, is long over. James Jones and Joel Anthony? Well, the fact that they're in the rotation tells you a lot. This is a team that's heavily reliant on two guys to carry them, one of whom is notorious for not showing up in crunch time. If they have to fight through a couple of early 6-game playoff series, I don't think they'll have enough left in the tank to get past the Bulls.
Which leaves us with two more matchups. The Pacers look like they have a decent hold on the 3 seed, but the Hawks, Magic, and Celtics are all within a half game of each other. So I guess I'll start with the Pacers. They're kind of a rich man's version of the Sixers, I think, and that hurts them going into the playoffs against teams that have more quality at the top of their roster. What they do have is 8 guys who average at least 9 points a game, a bunch of good personalities, and solid team defenders. What they don't have is a real go-to scorer. Danny Granger was good at being the best player on a bad team. On this team, he's still an asset, but it's clear that he's not a guy who is going to put a good team on his back. To his credit, he's gone from being a guy who put up almost 26 points a night at one point to a guy who averages a little under 19 now. To his discredit, he's shooting 42%, which is straight-up weak for a go-to scorer, and, after hovering around 40% from three in the past, he's hit around 36.5% this season, which isn't awful, but also isn't great. This is a team that I want to see win, but I just can't see them causing problems for the top two.
Which leaves three teams. I don't really have much to say about the Hawks. This is a typical good but not great team. They play very good defense, and they've got a couple of very good but not great players in Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, but this is another team that will put up a fight against anyone, but just doesn't have the game-changing player who can put them over the top against a good team. Which brings me to a team that does have that player: Orlando. Dwight Howard is a beast. Obviously, this entire section comes with a huge caveat. Howard isn't healthy right now-- he's probably out until at least the end of the month, and there's no guarantee his back will be ready to go for the start of the playoffs. On the assumption that he comes back ready at close to 100%, he could make a difference. On that assumption, I still think he's a game changer. He's really taking a beating these days from everyone ranging from SI's Ian Thomson to ESPN/Grantland's Bill Simmons. But Howard is still quite possibly the first guy you take if you're putting together a team to win one playoff series. In a league thin on true centers, Howard is a game changer. He still hasn't developed an effective counter-move in the post, but he's still the league's strongest, arguably most athletic pivot. He scores 20 a game just on physical ability, but where he really changes games is on D. This is a team that's 4th in the league in total defense even though they've got turnstiles like Hedo Turkoglu, Ryan Anderson and Jason Richardson playing 30 minutes a night. On offense, where Howard doesn't dominate, this team is in the league's bottom third. Anderson is a good stretch four who can knock down threes, but none of their perimeter guys are creating their own shots. Which means they're going to spend a lot of the playoffs dumping it into Howard and begging that, when he gets fouled, he somehow figures out how to hit more than 49% of his free throws (yeah, that's an ugly mark). But, in a seven game series, if Howard wakes up, this is a team that could be scary to anyone. In particular if the Heat find themselves playing the Magic, James and Wade's penetration game is going to be stifled somewhat by the monster in the middle. If Howard can stay out of foul trouble, if Miami's interchangeable supporting cast isn't knocking down jumpers, it could be a long series.
Now comes the last, and possibly most intriguing, squad: Boston. For most of this season, they've looked finished. The Big Three have been slowing down since before they got to Boston, but now they're just old. Paul Pierce is still averaging 19 points a game, but Kevin Garnett, who was once a consistent 22-24 points a night guy, is averaging 16 (and that's UP over his last two years), and Ray Allen is averaging just 14 (which is shocking, considering he came into the league in the same draft class as Allen Iverson, one that yielded THREE future MVPs, TEN all-stars, plus Marcus Camby, and in which the Wizards brilliantly traded away their first-round pick. Yeah, I'm still a little bitter). The Celtics are ranked 26th in the league in scoring, and Jermaine O'Neal is out for the season. Yet somehow, this team is rolling into the playoffs. They're 7-3 in their last 10 games. Rajon Rondo (after hearing trade rumors early in the season) is steamrolling the league, and they've beaten the Heat twice in the last 2 weeks. They're vulnerable against a team with a rim-protecting big like Dwight Howard or Tyson Chandler, but they're a scary matchup for Miami. They've got a fantastic point guard who can break down his man, three very good perimeter defenders now that Avery Bradley has developed into a solid piece over the last month or two, and a vet in KG who is still as good as any at trying to neutralize LeBron James. If you hold a gun to my head, I still think the Heat would beat Boston in 6 hard-fought games, but I think if it went to 7, I'd have to go with the C's.
So my predictions for how the seeding shakes out and how the East playoffs go.
(1) Bulls over (8) 76ers in 4 games
(2) Heat over (7) Knicks in 5 games
(3) Pacers over (6) Magic in 4 games (assuming Howard sits out/is less than 90%; if Howard is 100%, Magic in 7)
(4) Celtics over (5) Hawks in 6 games
(1) Bulls over (4) Celtics in 7 games
(2) Heat over (3) Pacers in 5 games (if Howard comes back at 100% and the Magic beat the Pacers, make this Heat over Magic in 6)
(1) Bulls over (2) Heat in 7 games.
In the next few days, I'll get to the West.
No comments:
Post a Comment