The top two seeds are clearly going to be Oklahoma City and San Antonio, who are within a game of each other, but well clear of the third-seeded Lakers. The Thunder, for my money, are the best-constructed team in basketball. They've actually been very average defensively, but they're the second-best scoring offense in the league. Like the Heat, they have two guys capable of being go-to scorers and, crucially, creating their own shots in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. But the supporting casts are night and day. Their only other double-digit scorer is James Harden, who actually comes off the bench, but is a great spark-plug and is also an underrated playmaker (averaging 3.7 assists a game playing the off guard). They've got a banger at center who can make life difficult for any post player in the league in Kendrick Perkins. They've got a shot-blocking 4 (albeit one who's pretty regularly out of position on D) who can also consistently knock down an 18 footer in Serge Ibaka. They've got spot-up shooters coming off the bench in Derek Fisher and Daequan Cook and bangers and defenders filling important roles in Nazr Mohammed, Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison. Come playoff time, this is not a team anyone wants to face.
I'm gonna take a separate paragraph to talk about Durant, who is, for my money, the league's most gifted scorer. He's not leading the league (he's second after Kobe Bryant), but he's getting his 28 points shooting just OVER 50% from the field, a little north of 38% from three, and 85% from the line. By comparison, Kobe is getting his 28 on FOUR more shots a game, shooting 43% from the field (for his career he hovered around 45-46% in his prime) and 30% from three (and he's taking five of those a game, just like Durant, so it's a fully representative sample). The only top-notch scorer who's arguably more efficient is LeBron James (though even he is a less prolific three-point shooter and a worse free throw shooter, so their effective shooting percentages are almost definitely pretty similar). And, unlike James, Durant doesn't disappear at the end of the game. To top it all off, he's turned into an above-average defender (no one's gonna mistake him for LeBron, but he's gone from a liability on that end when he came into the league to an asset) and, for those calling him soft, is averaging more boards per game playing on the wing than the Heat's best "big" guy, Chris Bosh.
Just trailing the Thunder are the remarkable Spurs. This is a team that should have been done as a title contender 3 or 4 years ago, when Tim Duncan started slowing down. But somehow, they've just kept chugging. Where they won earlier titles on the strength of Duncan's superstardom and with terrific complementary guys who were stars in their own right in Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, this year's Spurs are winning because they're balanced. This is a team that can throw quality players at you. Tony Parker has been fantastic this year, perfectly timing his scoring and distribution and setting the pace for the team. Manu Ginobili has been limited to 28 games, but he dropped 20 against Memphis last week, showing that he's still got something left. Even Duncan, though he's only played 28 minutes a game, has stayed healthy and averaged 15 and 9. He's gotten a few "DNP-Old" callouts from Gregg Popovich, but he's been consistent for them at age 35. The real strength of this team, though, is its depth. No other team has as many solid bodies it can throw at you. Behind the starting 5 of Parker, Duncan, Dejuan Blair, Danny Green and rookie Kawhi Leonard, they've got Ginobili, Tiago Splitter, Matt Bonner and Gary Neal. They've also added Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw in the middle of the season. And these aren't just random bodies-- they fill specific roles. Jackson provides some D and shooting. Bonner is a tall spot-up shooter. Splitter can bang inside when Duncan and Blair need a breather. Neal spells Parker for stretches, and Ginobili is their offensive spark off the bench. I don't like them quite as much as the Thunder, since they don't really have a scorer in his prime who can take over games the way the Thunder do, but they're actually almost as good offensively as the younger team, and slightly better on D. My concern with them is similar to my concern with the Pacers, Hawks and Sixers in the East-- while they have better players than those teams, I think part of what's gotten them through the season is their depth: with a compressed schedule, their ability to throw lots of bodies at teams has given them an advantage over teams like the Thunder who really need two of Durant, Westbrook and Harden to show up to be able to play their game. But I still think they're good for at least one series win, and maybe two.
The next tier in the West is interesting. You've got the Lakers and Clips within a game and a half of each other for the three seed (the Lakers are ahead right now). Neither of these tams really scares me. The Lakers, without Phil behind the bench, look rather mortal. The Clips, with Vinny Del Negro behind the bench, look rather clueless, especially on offense. The Lakers have two major assets pointing in their favor. They've still got the league's most competitive scoring shooting guard in Kobe Bryant, and they've got two of the best post scorers in the game in Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. But the Lakers' real problems are efficiency and depth. Kobe's a surefire hall-of-famer and a top-20 (at worst) player of all time, but he's past his prime. Now, that sounds questionable given that he's about to lead the league in scoring again, but look at the numbers and you see that it's true. In the past, even when he was surrounded by garbage, he was pretty efficient, shooting between 45 and 46% from the field and 33-36% from three. This season, he's had his worst shooting percentage since his second season in the league, and he's shot just under 30% from three. Now, Bynum has developed into arguably the league's second-best center, averaging almost 19 and 12 plus a couple of blocks on 56% shooting, and Gasol has quietly put up an efficient 17 and 11 on 50% shooting. But the lack of depth is a real concern with this team. Ramon Sessions is well below average as a starting point guard in the league. Metta World Peace is still a plus defender, but he's out of place offensively on this team. He's a spot-up shooter for them right now, and not at all an efficient one. They've got an above-average backup point in Steve Blake, and Matt Barnes is OK as an energy guy off the bench, but the rest of the bench is sparse-- Josh McRoberts and Devin Ebanks aren't going to scare anyone. Against a team like the Thunder or even the Spurs, I don't really like their chances.
Then you've got the Clippers. This is another strange team. Chris Paul is terrific. In all honesty, I think I'm in a very significant minority, but I'd still take him over Derrick Rose. He's the league's best floor leader, capable of setting up his teammates, running the break, slowing down and playing half court, and scoring himself. He's developed a reliable jumper, and is all but unguardable one on one. His running mate is Blake Griffin, who is the league's most ferocious dunker by a huge margin, but I think has actually become overrated. Griffin's a nice offensive player-- he can actually hit a face-up jump shot and is developing a post game. But he's a bad foul shooter, not a go-to guy in the half-court, and below average on the defensive end. The rest of the roster isn't bad, but it's not impressive either. Randy Foye is decent off the bench-- as a starting 2, he's below average. Caron Butler used to be a borderline all-star at the 3. Now, he's probably below average too, with injuries robbing him of his ability to blow by defenders and stay in front of the league's better swingmen. DeAndre Jordan is a decent shotblocker who can dunk, but he's no Tyson Chandler (the guy everyone claimed he would turn into once CP3 got there). And the bench is... unimpressive. Nick Young can fill it up scoring, but he's extraordinarily inefficient (shooting under 40%), a minus defender, a bad rebounder for a 6'7" guy, and possibly the worst passer in the league. He averages 1 assist in almost 30 minutes a night, and barely 2 boards. That's BAD. Then you've got a shoot-first combo guard in Mo Williams trying to spell CP3 (not gonna happen) and a way over the hill Kenyon Martin filling in the front court. This is a team that can only win if Paul carries them. Luckily, he might be able to do that for a playoff series. I just doubt he can do it for more than one, especially since Paul is also effectively the coach of this team. If Paul's off his game, there's no plan B. That said, there are worse places to be than relying on Chris Paul.
The last of the contenders is, I think, the league's most intriguing team, Memphis. They haven't been very good on offense this season, but they've actually been the 7th-best defensive team in the league by points allowed. And the offensive troubles look a lot less bothersome when you recognize that Zach Randolph has been out for most of the season. This is effectively the same team that beat the Spurs and almost beat the Thunder last Spring, but with a healthy Rudy Gay. That said, Randolph, after dropping 25 in his first game back, hasn't really gotten back to his old self. In fact, he's averaging under 10 points a game in April. But this is still not a team most teams want to face. Mike Conley is an underrated point-- a solid scorer and a decent facilitator. Tony Allen is one of the league's best wing defenders-- a guy you can stick on the league's most productive scoring wings and know that they'll have to fight for every point. Rudy Gay is a complete scoring 3-- not a dominant player, but one who can fill it up, and do so with decent efficiency. Randolph was once one of the league's best post scorers. If he can become that guy again, this team has a legitimate chance to make the finals. And Marc Gasol may well be a better player than his brother at this point-- a strong pivot who can defend, score, rebound, and is a terrific passer for a center (at 3 assists a game). Off the bench, OJ Mayo gives you instant offense and Marreese Speights should be able to fill in for the bigs in a rotation (he's been starting, but I'm assuming they'll re-insert Randolph for the playoffs). Quincy Pondexter can give you 20 minutes a game as a flex forward, and Gilbert Arenas can still spell Conley for a short stretch (though he'll never be a key player in the league again). I think this team rises and falls with Randolph. If he turns into his old self, they can threaten for the conference. If not, they're done in a round or two.
Which leaves us with the last 5 teams battling for 3 spots. I guess I'll start with the defending champion Mavs, who sit in 7th, a half game behind sixth-place Denver. I argued at the beginning of the season that I thought they were done as a contender when they let Tyson Chandler leave. At the beginning of the season, they were straight-up terrible. They rounded into form a bit, and actually stayed a better defensive team than I thought they would be (they're 11 in points allowed), but they've struggled a bit on offense, and I just think that, with Chandler gone, they're a difference-maker away from being a contender. The Mavs go roughly nine deep, but the story goes deeper than that. Jason Kidd, who's been on the downside of his career for awhile, is finally done. In his prime, he was an MVP candidate. Then he morphed into a dependable spot-up shooter who could still play some D, making up for his diminished quickness with veteran guile. But now, he's a liability on both ends. He can still get the Mavs into the offense, but that's about it. His assists have fallen off a cliff, dropping from over 8 to 5.5, and he's shooting a putrid 36% from the floor. Dirk is still mostly Dirk-- he overcame a rough start to average 21 a game, but even he was less efficient offensively than he usually is. After hovering between 48 and 50% between 2006 and 2010, he shot 52% last season. This year, he's been under 46%. Jason Terry's been Jason Terry-- not particularly efficient, but he can still score, and thought his shooting percentage has fallen from 45% to 43%, he's actually shooting 2% better from 3, on more attempts, so his effective percentage is almost definitely pretty similar. Shawn Marion's regressed some offensively-- he's gone from averaging 12.5 points on 52% shooting to averaging 11 points on 45% shooting. He's OK as a complementary guy at this point, but he's also on the decline. And Brendan Haywood... is OK on defense, but he's essentially a Tyson Chandler clone who does everything substantially worse. His hands are worse. He's not anywhere near as efficient a finisher. He's a decent defender but not a game-changing one. If you've got four plus starters, he's passable, but right now the Mavs have one plus starter and a plus sixth man. The last starter is Delonte West. West's role in the league has become "swingman who jumps from playoff team to playoff team, being average at everything except sleeping with LeBron's mom". West isn't a bad player-- he plays decent D, is a decent scorer, is decently efficient, and has a decent handle. He's actually been playing surprisingly well lately, scoring 20+ in two of the last three games, but West is like Haywood-- a guy you can get away with having in your lineup if he's the worst starter, but not in a starting group that also includes Haywood and Jason Kidd. Terry (who's practically a starter anyway) aside, the bench is unimpressive. You've got Vince Carter-- I guess it's a small miracle that he's still in the league and starting for a playoff team at age 35, so more power to him for that. But he's not a guy you want playing heavy minutes. He's having by far the worst scoring season of his career (under 10 points), doing that inefficiently (shooting under 41%, though his 3-point percentage isn't bad), and not creating his own shot. I guess he's kind of trying on D, which is more than you could say for him the rest of his career. Roddy Beaubois's OK, but he's not going to change games. Ian Mahinmi is a big body and nothing else. Frankly, the fact that this roster got to the playoffs in the rather deep west is a testament to Dirk's ability and Rick Carlisle's coaching job. I think they're done in a round this year.
In 6th place right now, you've got Denver. The Nugs are another one of those strange teams that has a lot of quality players, but no star, and they play at a fast pace that can win you regular season games but isn't really suited to the playoffs. I'll admit I've got a soft spot for Denver-- they've got three of my favorite players in the league in Chris "Birdman" Andersen, Timofey Mozgov, and Javale McGee. Denver can't really be judged on typical points metrics-- they run up and down the floor, so they score a lot (1st in the league) and give up a lot of points too (28th in the league). If you're talking about Denver, you have to start with Ty Lawson running the point. He's a supercharged small guard who's perfect for their fast-breaking system. He's their leading scorer, isn't inefficient, and can also set up his teammates. Running with him, you've got rookie rebounding machine Kenneth Faried, who can also finish, a decent wing in Arron Aflalo (who's also averaging a rather efficient 15 a game), Danilo Gallinari, who's a very good piece when he's healthy and on his game, which he hasn't been for much of the season, though he could round into form by playoff time, and the two-headed Javale/Kosta Koufos monster. Koufos is... pretty nondescript. He's a big body who can put the ball in the basket if you hand it to him and rebounds at a decent clip, but is a dime a dozen type. Javale... is the league's dumbest player, a guy who will goaltend three-pointers, fall down all over the place, try to lead the fast break, and attempt foul-line dunks in games. But he's also a 7-footer who has long arms and can jump really really high, which is tantalizing. I still don't think he's a guy you can trust to have in the game, but he's probably the most entertaining guy there is. They've got a couple of solid backups on the bench. Andre Miller is old, but he's still one of the league's best backup points, a capable scorer and distributor; Corey Brewer isn't an efficient scorer, but he's a good defender, and he can run, and Al Harrington will have games where he shoots 1 of 10, but he can also get you 25 in a given night, and he's a decent rebounder. But this team isn't a threat. When the game slows down, they don't have a go-to guy who can take over. And defensively, you can't trust them to get a stop. I think they're a first-round out.
Then in 8th, you've got a tie between Phoenix and Houston. Neither is much of a threat. It's nuts that Phoenix is even contending, given that Steve Nash is about 5 years past his prime, and his supporting cast is mediocre (not to mention Nash has always been a minus defender), but they've somehow got themselves fighting for a spot. Marcin Gortat has somehow turned himself into a 16 and 10 big (how much of that is Nash I can't say), but the rest of their roster is filled with guys who, frankly, shouldn't be playing major roles on playoff teams. Grant Hill is in and out of the lineup, but somehow he's willed himself to a double-figure scoring average despite being almost 40 years old and having his ankles surgically repaired more times than I can count. He's an inspiration. But then they've got guys like Jared Dudley (average), Shannon Brown (backup), and Channing Frye playing big minutes. This is a team that's still good offensively, but they couldn't get over the hump when Nash was in his prime and had a good supporting cast, so at this point, if they sneak in, they're cannon fodder for the Thunder or Spurs (sadly, since I love this team).
Then, tied with Phoenix, you've got the Rockets, with the Jazz a half-game behind. The Rockets have been fueled by the emergence of Goran Dragic, who's been on fire since entering the starting lineup when Kyle Lowry hurt himself early in March. He's averaged 20 points a night in April. But now Lowry's back, and this team still doesn't look scary. They're solid offensively, with Dragic, Kevin Martin (when he's healthy), Luis Scola, and even rookie Chandler Parsons capable of scoring. But they're defensively suspect, even with Marcus Camby, so I don't give them much chance against the top seeds even if they sneak in.
Last, there's Utah, which sits half a game back of Phoenix and Houston. The Jazz are a strange group, very good offensively but pretty poor defensively. They actually have a pretty scary starting lineup-- Al Jefferson is almost a 20 and 10 guy at the pivot, Paul Millsap is a 17 and 9 guy at the 4, and Gordon Hayward has turned himself into a capable 2. With Josh Howard out, they've been starting Demarre Carroll at the 3, and that's bad, but Devin Harris has been playing better in April (17 and 7 or so) after epitomizing suck (yeah, I just made that phrase up) and also inconsistency for most of the season. Their real downfall is their bench. Even if we assume Howard and Raja Bell get healthy in time for the playoffs, they almost definitely won't be 100%, and even with them, this team isn't really a threat. Derrick Favors is also a disappointment, a talented prospect who I don't think will ever be the standout a lot of people expected.
With that out of the way, here are my picks in the West (and the Finals). I'll pick the Jazz to sneak in ahead of the Suns and the Rockets, probably against my better judgment. The Suns have a brutal remaining schedule left, and the Rockets have been struggling badly recently, so I think the Jazz are the pick almost by default.
(1) Spurs over (8) Jazz in 5
(2) Thunder over (7) Mavs in 5
(3) Lakers over (6) Nuggets in 4
(5) Grizzlies over (4) Clippers in 7
(1) Spurs over (5) Grizzlies in 7
(2) Thunder over (6) Lakers in 6
(2) Thunder over (1) Spurs in 6
Then in the FINALS, I'm gonna have to take the Thunder over the Bulls in 6.
Which leaves us with the last 5 teams battling for 3 spots. I guess I'll start with the defending champion Mavs, who sit in 7th, a half game behind sixth-place Denver. I argued at the beginning of the season that I thought they were done as a contender when they let Tyson Chandler leave. At the beginning of the season, they were straight-up terrible. They rounded into form a bit, and actually stayed a better defensive team than I thought they would be (they're 11 in points allowed), but they've struggled a bit on offense, and I just think that, with Chandler gone, they're a difference-maker away from being a contender. The Mavs go roughly nine deep, but the story goes deeper than that. Jason Kidd, who's been on the downside of his career for awhile, is finally done. In his prime, he was an MVP candidate. Then he morphed into a dependable spot-up shooter who could still play some D, making up for his diminished quickness with veteran guile. But now, he's a liability on both ends. He can still get the Mavs into the offense, but that's about it. His assists have fallen off a cliff, dropping from over 8 to 5.5, and he's shooting a putrid 36% from the floor. Dirk is still mostly Dirk-- he overcame a rough start to average 21 a game, but even he was less efficient offensively than he usually is. After hovering between 48 and 50% between 2006 and 2010, he shot 52% last season. This year, he's been under 46%. Jason Terry's been Jason Terry-- not particularly efficient, but he can still score, and thought his shooting percentage has fallen from 45% to 43%, he's actually shooting 2% better from 3, on more attempts, so his effective percentage is almost definitely pretty similar. Shawn Marion's regressed some offensively-- he's gone from averaging 12.5 points on 52% shooting to averaging 11 points on 45% shooting. He's OK as a complementary guy at this point, but he's also on the decline. And Brendan Haywood... is OK on defense, but he's essentially a Tyson Chandler clone who does everything substantially worse. His hands are worse. He's not anywhere near as efficient a finisher. He's a decent defender but not a game-changing one. If you've got four plus starters, he's passable, but right now the Mavs have one plus starter and a plus sixth man. The last starter is Delonte West. West's role in the league has become "swingman who jumps from playoff team to playoff team, being average at everything except sleeping with LeBron's mom". West isn't a bad player-- he plays decent D, is a decent scorer, is decently efficient, and has a decent handle. He's actually been playing surprisingly well lately, scoring 20+ in two of the last three games, but West is like Haywood-- a guy you can get away with having in your lineup if he's the worst starter, but not in a starting group that also includes Haywood and Jason Kidd. Terry (who's practically a starter anyway) aside, the bench is unimpressive. You've got Vince Carter-- I guess it's a small miracle that he's still in the league and starting for a playoff team at age 35, so more power to him for that. But he's not a guy you want playing heavy minutes. He's having by far the worst scoring season of his career (under 10 points), doing that inefficiently (shooting under 41%, though his 3-point percentage isn't bad), and not creating his own shot. I guess he's kind of trying on D, which is more than you could say for him the rest of his career. Roddy Beaubois's OK, but he's not going to change games. Ian Mahinmi is a big body and nothing else. Frankly, the fact that this roster got to the playoffs in the rather deep west is a testament to Dirk's ability and Rick Carlisle's coaching job. I think they're done in a round this year.
In 6th place right now, you've got Denver. The Nugs are another one of those strange teams that has a lot of quality players, but no star, and they play at a fast pace that can win you regular season games but isn't really suited to the playoffs. I'll admit I've got a soft spot for Denver-- they've got three of my favorite players in the league in Chris "Birdman" Andersen, Timofey Mozgov, and Javale McGee. Denver can't really be judged on typical points metrics-- they run up and down the floor, so they score a lot (1st in the league) and give up a lot of points too (28th in the league). If you're talking about Denver, you have to start with Ty Lawson running the point. He's a supercharged small guard who's perfect for their fast-breaking system. He's their leading scorer, isn't inefficient, and can also set up his teammates. Running with him, you've got rookie rebounding machine Kenneth Faried, who can also finish, a decent wing in Arron Aflalo (who's also averaging a rather efficient 15 a game), Danilo Gallinari, who's a very good piece when he's healthy and on his game, which he hasn't been for much of the season, though he could round into form by playoff time, and the two-headed Javale/Kosta Koufos monster. Koufos is... pretty nondescript. He's a big body who can put the ball in the basket if you hand it to him and rebounds at a decent clip, but is a dime a dozen type. Javale... is the league's dumbest player, a guy who will goaltend three-pointers, fall down all over the place, try to lead the fast break, and attempt foul-line dunks in games. But he's also a 7-footer who has long arms and can jump really really high, which is tantalizing. I still don't think he's a guy you can trust to have in the game, but he's probably the most entertaining guy there is. They've got a couple of solid backups on the bench. Andre Miller is old, but he's still one of the league's best backup points, a capable scorer and distributor; Corey Brewer isn't an efficient scorer, but he's a good defender, and he can run, and Al Harrington will have games where he shoots 1 of 10, but he can also get you 25 in a given night, and he's a decent rebounder. But this team isn't a threat. When the game slows down, they don't have a go-to guy who can take over. And defensively, you can't trust them to get a stop. I think they're a first-round out.
Then in 8th, you've got a tie between Phoenix and Houston. Neither is much of a threat. It's nuts that Phoenix is even contending, given that Steve Nash is about 5 years past his prime, and his supporting cast is mediocre (not to mention Nash has always been a minus defender), but they've somehow got themselves fighting for a spot. Marcin Gortat has somehow turned himself into a 16 and 10 big (how much of that is Nash I can't say), but the rest of their roster is filled with guys who, frankly, shouldn't be playing major roles on playoff teams. Grant Hill is in and out of the lineup, but somehow he's willed himself to a double-figure scoring average despite being almost 40 years old and having his ankles surgically repaired more times than I can count. He's an inspiration. But then they've got guys like Jared Dudley (average), Shannon Brown (backup), and Channing Frye playing big minutes. This is a team that's still good offensively, but they couldn't get over the hump when Nash was in his prime and had a good supporting cast, so at this point, if they sneak in, they're cannon fodder for the Thunder or Spurs (sadly, since I love this team).
Then, tied with Phoenix, you've got the Rockets, with the Jazz a half-game behind. The Rockets have been fueled by the emergence of Goran Dragic, who's been on fire since entering the starting lineup when Kyle Lowry hurt himself early in March. He's averaged 20 points a night in April. But now Lowry's back, and this team still doesn't look scary. They're solid offensively, with Dragic, Kevin Martin (when he's healthy), Luis Scola, and even rookie Chandler Parsons capable of scoring. But they're defensively suspect, even with Marcus Camby, so I don't give them much chance against the top seeds even if they sneak in.
Last, there's Utah, which sits half a game back of Phoenix and Houston. The Jazz are a strange group, very good offensively but pretty poor defensively. They actually have a pretty scary starting lineup-- Al Jefferson is almost a 20 and 10 guy at the pivot, Paul Millsap is a 17 and 9 guy at the 4, and Gordon Hayward has turned himself into a capable 2. With Josh Howard out, they've been starting Demarre Carroll at the 3, and that's bad, but Devin Harris has been playing better in April (17 and 7 or so) after epitomizing suck (yeah, I just made that phrase up) and also inconsistency for most of the season. Their real downfall is their bench. Even if we assume Howard and Raja Bell get healthy in time for the playoffs, they almost definitely won't be 100%, and even with them, this team isn't really a threat. Derrick Favors is also a disappointment, a talented prospect who I don't think will ever be the standout a lot of people expected.
With that out of the way, here are my picks in the West (and the Finals). I'll pick the Jazz to sneak in ahead of the Suns and the Rockets, probably against my better judgment. The Suns have a brutal remaining schedule left, and the Rockets have been struggling badly recently, so I think the Jazz are the pick almost by default.
(1) Spurs over (8) Jazz in 5
(2) Thunder over (7) Mavs in 5
(3) Lakers over (6) Nuggets in 4
(5) Grizzlies over (4) Clippers in 7
(1) Spurs over (5) Grizzlies in 7
(2) Thunder over (6) Lakers in 6
(2) Thunder over (1) Spurs in 6
Then in the FINALS, I'm gonna have to take the Thunder over the Bulls in 6.
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