So I wrote up a post recently about the NBA's free agent period, and I realized that I didn't even consider any of the guys available for my favorite team-- the Wizards. Which got me to thinking about why that was. Now, the Wiz were the third-worst team in the league last year. It's no secret that we suck. Which makes it interesting that I didn't see any of the available free agents as an improvement for the squad. Why is that? Well, I think to figure out what the Wiz lack, it's a good idea to figure out what they don't lack. Which calls for a breakdown by position.
PG: John Wall is our cornerstone and really the only un-tradeable asset. Which isn't to say that he's a finished product. He struggled quite a bit last season, turned the ball over way too much, and didn't make enough jump shots to keep defenses honest. That he didn't quite live up to a lot of fans' expectations, though, just speaks to how high the bar was set for him, and to the inevitable comparisons to his fellow #1-overall pick and rookie sensation Blake Griffin. Griffin ran away with the Rookie of the Year award (though it's worth pointing out that he's two years older than Wall). But that speaks both to his greater maturity, and to the fact that I think it's easier to adapt to the league as a power forward (especially for a physical freak like Griffin) than it is for a point guard tasked with running a team. Wall already might be the fastest player in the league going end to end with the ball. He's a very, very good distributor, and can get to the hoop almost at will. Sure, he shot barely 40% from the field and under 30% from three, but he averaged better than 16 points and 8 assists (better than reigning league MVP Derrick Rose as a rookie!), played solid D, and put in 100% effort despite the team around him being... pretty bad. And that's putting it nicely. But he's got everything you want physically and skill-wise: he's long, he's super-athletic, he's got a good attitude, and he can both score and create. I still think Wall is a cornerstone to build the team around, and if he develops a jumper, he'll be scary. And in second-round pick Shelvin Mack, I think we've got a guy who can run the point for 10-12 minutes a game in spot duty, knock down open jumpers, and run the team adequately. So I think we're pretty set at this spot, at least.
SG: This position needs an upgrade for the long run. Nick Young isn't as terrible as a lot of Wiz fans think-- I think he could develop into a poor man's Jamal Crawford who can give you 12 points a game off the bench. But he's not a good starting shooting guard. He's not a terrible shooter (44% from the field, 39% from three), but he must lead the league in long, off-balance 2-point shots (aka the worst shot in basketball). And if he's not scoring, he's not bringing anything to the table. He's a mediocre rebounder for an off-guard, he doesn't care about defense, he doesn't create shots for others, and he's not a good enough scorer to take over a game just on that end. He'll give you the occasional 35-point explosion, but also more than his fair share of 5/14 shooting nights. And he gets more turnovers than assists. Jordan Crawford is similar to Young-- he's a very high usage player (when Young went down, Crawford scored almost as much as Young), but, unlike Young, he was very inefficient (39% from the field, 24% from three; and he shot 4 threes a game!), and his rebounding wasn't much better. He's a bit more interested on defense, and he doesn't turn the ball over as much and can create a bit, but I think he's ideally a rotation player, too. So one of the two has to go, and we still need a starter. I suppose Josh Howard is worth mentioning here, and he was a borderline All-Star 5 years ago, but now he's a walking injury, and I don't think we'll get much out of him. If we suck again and get lucky in the lottery, I'd like to pick up Harrison Barnes or Jeremy Lamb to play this spot next year, since what we have won't cut it, and the guys who are available on the market are either older versions of what we already have (Jamal Crawford and Jason Richardson, kind of) or headcases that our young team doesn't need (JR Smith).
SF: Technically, both of our first-round picks this season can play this spot. I'm hopeful at least one of them pans out, so it won't be a concern going forward. Jan Vesely (the 6th overall pick) is probably ideally a 4-man, since he's 6-11 and doesn't have much of a jump shot. Vesely is 21 years old, but at this point, I think he's still a couple of years away from being a real contributor. I've only seen Vesely on YouTube and NBA Draft clips but, honestly, I wasn't very impressed. Vesely is obviously super-athletic. He's long, he runs the floor, and he can jump out of the gym. In terms of athleticism, the guy is a beast. The problem is, the rest of his game just doesn't impress me. On his YouTube clips, he struggles to catch routine entry passes into the post, which tells me that he might have small hands (a concern for a big), and he fumbles way too many passes for my liking (a problem if he's going to be flanking Wall on the break). His rebounding numbers also weren't very impressive in Europe, and his free throw shooting was horrific (under 50%). Defensively, he looked slow on his rotations, and was frequently off balance. He had the length and athleticism to recover in Europe, but if he makes those mistakes in the NBA, guys will blow right by him. Now, he's got a ton of upside, but I think he'll have to develop quite a bit, and won't play more than 15 minutes a game this coming season. Chris Singleton is, I think, more ready to contribute right now. Unlike Vesely, he doesn't have star potential, but he's got a very defined role. Singleton is pretty big for a 3 (6-8, 230), and while his offensive game is unrefined, he's a very good defender who's big enough to hold his own against most NBA 4's and quick enough to guard the 2 if need be. I think he could be a Shane Battier type of player if he develops a consistent spot-up jumper. At worst, he'll be a solid defensive stopper for us. I think, given that we won't be competing next year, no free agents make sense, since getting Vesely and Singleton playing time so they can develop is key. That's also why I think we should phase out Rashard Lewis. We took on Lewis essentially because Ernie Grunfeld was determined to dump Gilbert Arenas. Lewis used to be a very good scorer, but right now, Lewis is just not a useful player on a young team. He's a 6-10 spot up three-point shooter who doesn't do much else particularly well. Hopefully, we can turn him into a 10-minute a night veteran who will be happy to collect his paycheck and mentor the young guys...
PF: Vesely can also play here, but this is where we've got a few young projects (Trevor Booker, Kevin Seraphin) and Andray Blatche. Booker and Seraphin are undersized post players (6-8 and 6-9 respectively). Booker is very athletic, and might turn into a solid frontcourt backup, but I think what Seraphin brings to the table is 6 fouls. His game is completely undeveloped at this point. Honestly, it's so undeveloped I can't even tell what his upside is. The two of them might add up to one decent backup big, but I'd still rather have them on the team than Blatche. Blatche doesn't turn 25 until next month, so he's still technically a young guy, and he's got some impressive skills (6-11, athletic, good skills), but I want him off the roster as soon as possible. The guy just isn't a winner. Now, you can look at his numbers and think that Blatche is a good PF. He's improved them every year, and averaged almost 17 and 8 this past season. But, in his case, the numbers lie. Blatche spends half of every season slacking off, pouting, not caring on defense, and generally putting himself before the team. For the last 10 games, he'll average 22 and 10 and look like a potential star. That got him a contract extension, which he used to keep doing the same thing. So I'll say it now: if your starting power forward is Andray Blatche, you won't be a good team. I'm hoping we'll be able to trade him for a bag of potato chips and a juice box. Or if we can't do that, just cut him and see what we can do with Vesely, Booker and Seraphin rotating at the 4. Yes, we'll suck, but we suck anyway, and at least we won't have Blatche's corrosive attitude on the roster. Ideally, Vesely will develop into the PF of the future, but if not, I wouldn't mind drafting one in one of the next two years (Jared Sullinger might be around when we draft next year, and I think he'll be a solid starting 4 in the league). But the key here is dumping Blatche. This is also a spot where a free agent makes sense. Next to Wall, I think the ideal is a guy who plays like Kenyon Martin used to play when he was on the Nets with Jason Kidd-- a guy who defends, rebounds, and can get out on the break and run the floor. I guess if David Lee played some D, he would be the closest thing to that in the league right now.
C: Javale McGee is the starter here right now. It appears that Ernie loves him. McGee is pretty young (23), and he had a statistically decent season last year (10 points, 8 boards a game). His upside is obvious. He's long (7 feet), he's super athletic (everyone who watched knows he should have won the dunk contest last year), and he's a good help-side shot blocker. He is, however, far from a finished product. Offensively, his game consists of dunking. He has no post moves. He's not as good a rebounder as a guy his size should be. And, while he's good blocking shots on the help side, he's not a very good post defender. He doesn't have a strong base, he bites on too many pump fakes, and even in a league starved of good post scorers, the better centers handle him. If he gets a whole lot stronger, I've heard people compare him to Tyson Chandler, but I'm a lot higher on Chandler than I was on McGee. And if the rumor that Grunfeld rejected a straight-up McGee for the second overall pick offer is true, he should be fired (I would have traded McGee and the 6 for the 2...). But McGee has the upside to be a solid starting center in the league, so upgrading there isn't necessarily a priority. On the other hand, there have been rumors among Wizards fan that McGee is being shopped in a package for Dwight Howard. If true, that would be incredible. Howard isn't necessarily the best fit next to Wall-- Wall is built to run and Howard is more of a half-court player, even though he's probably the league's best physical specimen. If we could pull off a trade for Howard, it would transform the team instantly. Howard is only two years older than McGee, and a starting 5 of Wall, Harrison Barnes, Singleton, Vesely, and Howard would be downright scary, assuming Vesely and Singleton develop into solid starters. Of course, all that is idle speculation at this point, but if there's one player that could instantly transform the Wiz into a playoff team, it's Howard.
So, realistically, what are our prospects for the future? I think Wall is entrenched at the 1, Singleton is the future starter at the 3, hopefully Vesely will be the same at the 4, and, for now at least, McGee is our guy at center. One of Booker/Seraphin should be our top big off the bench, and one of Young/Crawford should be our first guard off the bench. For next season, this clearly isn't a playoff roster, so it'll probably be a trip back to the lottery. My hope is we get one of Barnes and Jeremy Lamb to fill the starting 2 spot long term, which makes for a roster that looks something like this 2-3 years from now.
PG: Wall (starter), Mack (backup)
SG: Barnes/Lamb (starter), Young/Crawford (backup)
SF: Singleton/Vesely (starter), Singleton/Vesely (backup
PF: Vesely/FA signing (starter), Booker/Seraphin (backup)
C: McGee/maybe Dwight Howard...? (starter), Booker/Seraphin (backup)
So I think we're still 2 or 3 pieces away, but for the first time in about 5 years, I've got some hope that we're building a future playoff contender.
Showing posts with label Free Agency. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free Agency. Show all posts
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Friday, July 8, 2011
NBA Free Agency- who should go where?
Everyone knows the NBA is locked out. But I'm still in denial. I don't really want to think about the possibility that I'll have to spend my winter studying without an NBA game streaming on the computer, so I'm going to pretend that, come the end of October, the NBA will be tipping off like it always does. In that vein, SI's Chris Mannix released his list of the top-20 free agents this offseason. I'm not going to go down his entire list because I don't think anyone besides Big Baby's Mom cares where Big Baby will be next year. Because I'm snatching Mannix's list, I'll honor his rankings. Also, I'm too lazy to look up the specific salary cap situation for each team, so I'm looking strictly at who would be a good fit in terms of needs and playing style (with common sense exceptions, obviously; I'm trying to keep it plausible...). With those rules of thumb, here's Mannix's list:
Mannix's List
And my thoughts:
1. Nene (Denver, UFA)-- I like Nene. It feels like he's been around forever, and that he's spent half of his career out with busted knees. Both of which are, to some degree, true. But, quietly, I tend to forget that 1) he's 28, and 2) he hasn't missed more than 7 games the last 3 years. In that time, he's turned into a borderline All-Star who can put up almost 15 and 8, shoot a high percentage, and protect the hoop a little bit (though he'll stilll get run over by Dwight Howard). I like Nene on a squad that can get out and run-- he's good in transition and can finish on the break. And while adding Melo and Chauncey Billups was a baffling move for this style, so long as Mike D'Antoni coaches the Knicks, they will run. Adding Nene would give them not just another big who can finish on the break-- it also allows them to move Amare to his natural "4" spot, and also a guy who plays defense to allow them to put up a fight in the playoffs. My pick: Knicks
2. Marc Gasol (Memphis, RFA)-- Four years ago, Marc Gasol was Pau's fatter, less athletic, less polished, arguably uglier little brother. He was also poorer and their parents probably loved him less. Four years later, we can officially say it: Marc is a beast. And, at 26 years old, I think he's a more valuable commodity than Nene. At this point, Pau is still a better player. But, if I were a GM, I would take Marc over Pau when building my team. While his regular season numbers dipped a bit this past season (torpedoing my fantasy team), Gasol was huge in the playoffs. In the playoffs, he put up 15 and 11, and averaged almost two blocks a game during the regular season. His passing and shotblocking perfectly complemented Zach Randolph's low-post scoring for the Grizzlies. And the Grizzlies are, without a doubt, on the rise. They shocked the Spurs in the playoffs, and took the Thunder to 7 games in the second round. And they did it without arguably their best all-around player in Rudy Gay. Any team would love to have Gasol, but at this point, with Zach Randolph still very much in his prime at 30, the Grizz's window of opportunity is just opening. They need to keep Gasol to be legit contenders. He'll definitely want a raise, but, given his restricted status, I think he will (and should) stay with Memphis. My pick: Grizzlies.
3. David West (New Orleans, UFA)-- I'm not as high on David West as maybe his numbers suggest I should be. West is a good low-post scorer with smooth footwork and a consistent jump shot out to about 18 feet. Those are the positives. On the downside, West is, at 6-9, undersized. He's not a great rebounder for a "4" (he's never averaged 9 boards a game), he's not young (30; I know I said Randolph was in his prime at 30, but Randolph doesn't have the injury history, is on an established team, and is way more talented), he's coming off a season-ending injury, and his numbers may have been inflated from playing with Chris Paul. The fact that West walked away from a $7.5 million option for next season to test the free agency waters suggests that he wants to get paid. Unfortunately, I don't see any natural candidates to sign him among the league's playoff contenders. I don't think he'd mesh well with Dwight Howard in Orlando (neither is a great passer), he's not an up-tempo player, and teams like San Antonio and Chicago that do play a style that suits him either have similar players already (Boozer in Chicago) or don't sign big-ticket free agents (San Antonio). I think his best bet is to swallow his pride, re-up short term with New Orleans, prove he's recovered from his injury, and see what Chris Paul does before signing his last contract. I doubt that'll happen, since it looks like he wants to get paid now, and he might end up with whatever lower-tier team will overpay for him, but this is about what I think he should do, not what he will do. My pick: Hornets.
4. Tyson Chandler (Dallas, UFA)-- I love Tyson Chandler. He proved that, on the right team, he's an indispensable piece. Heck, I think that, besides Dirk, he was the Mavs' best, most indispensable player this past season. His offensive game is still limited to alley-oops and putbacks, but he protects the hoop, is a great helpside shot blocker, is one of the few big men who can compete with Dwight Howard physically, is active on the offensive glass, and sets screens. The key to Chandler, though, is putting him in the right situation. Since he's not going to create his own shot, he has to be on a team that has enough firepower that you're not counting on him to score. And he's at his best in the half-court rather than on the break. He'd be a perfect fit for a team like Miami, but unless he wants to take a massive pay cut at age 28, that's a no-go. The other natural destination for him, I think, is Boston. Rajon Rondo is exactly the kind of playmaking point Chandler thrives with, and KG plays further from the hoop than Chandler does on both ends of the floor. I think he's the perfect replacement for Kendrick Perkins (whose trade was awful for the C's). But Boston's core is aging-- KG, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce are all on the downside. Of course, you could say the same thing about Dallas's-- Dirk is at the tail end of his prime, Jason Terry is in his mid-thirties, and Jason Kidd is ancient. I think it's a toss-up between the two, but I think at this point, I think Boston is actually a better fit. Chandler is still in his prime, and the C's may have one more year in their championship window. Crucially, once Dirk retires (or declines), Dallas will have to overhaul its team, while Rajon Rondo's presence in Boston means the Celtics will have a better foundation to build on. So, going forward, Boston is the choice. My pick: Celtics.
5. Thaddeus Young (Philadelphia, RFA)-- He's restricted and he's a perfect fit in Philly until (unless?) Evan Turner emerges as a legit player. He would be wise to re-up, and I think he will. My pick: Sixers.
6. Jason Richardson (Orlando, UFA)-- Richardson is a decent jump-shooter who can be a role player for a contender. But he's 30, so I don't think his window's too big. If I thought Chicago were one piece away from contending, I'd say he should go there, but I think by the time they turn the corner, Richardson will be well into an even steeper decline. I like him to re-up with the Magic to play sidekick to Dwight Howard for another year. My pick: Magic.
9. J.R. Smith (Denver, UFA)-- J.R. Smith is an intriguing player. He's SUPER athletic, isn't a bad rebounder for a shooting guard, and is only 25. On the downside, he hasn't really cared on D in the past (though there were some promising signs once Melo left town), and his attitude has occasionally been a concern. But I think, as a supporting piece on a winner, Smith could be a good fit. I like him in Chicago, where the Bulls just didn't have the firepower to compete with Miami last year. I don't know if Smith will push them past the Heat, and Smith's indifference to defense in the past is a bit of a concern, but I think he's a young piece that gives them extra firepower and another young piece to grow alongside Rose, Noah and Deng. I think he could even be at his best in a Jamal Crawford-type scorer off the bench role, though he's probably a better all-around player (but not as gifted a scorer) as Crawford. My pick: Bulls.
10. Grant Hill (Phoenix, UFA)-- I've got a soft spot for Grant Hill. Yeah, he's 100 years old, but you've gotta love a guy who was a top-5 player in his prime, missed a half-decade of his career, but had the guts to come back and become a solid role player. I want to see Hill get a ring, and it's not going to happen in Phoenix. But he is a perfect leader and 7th man for a contender. Miami is looking for those kinds of players, but Hill, who, in his prime, was the closest thing to LeBron before LeBron himself came along, has a very similar skill set to James. I think I like him on the Spurs- their slow-down game suits his style at this point, and they may have one more run in them, just like Hill, and where he's a much better fit than Richard Jefferson. If not, I guess Atlanta would also make sense. But I'm sticking with San Antonio. My pick: Spurs.
11. Tayshaun Prince (Detroit, UFA)-- Prince is a bad fit on bad teams. He's not a dominant player or a leader, and, at 31, he's too old to grow with a young, rebuilding outfit like the Pistons. But he's still a decent scorer, a terrific defender, and would be a valuable piece for a contender. LA would be a natural fit, but they've got Ron Artest and Lamar Odom already. I actually like him in Atlanta, where he slots in effortlessly at the 3, and gives them a scary frontline with Josh Smith and Al Horford. My pick: Hawks.
12. Jamal Crawford (Atlanta, UFA)-- Crawford is a scoring machine. He can shoot the ball, he's fearless going to the hoop, and my friend Matt Allen thinks he's a top-5 shooting guard of all time. OK, not really, but he's definitely got more love for Crawford than anyone I know. Crawford's flaws are obvious. He's 31, he was significantly worse last year than he was the year before, when he was Sixth Man of the Year, and he doesn't play defense. I think if JR Smith doesn't go to Chicago, Crawford may even be a better fit right now. Problem is, I think by the time they're a contender (in two years), I think Crawford will be more or less finished as a contributor for a contending team. To me, he's perfect where he is: as a scorer off the bench for a team that's pretty good but doesn't have a lot of firepower as is. Another thought was Portland, but the problem there is Brandon Roy. If Roy's injuries mean he's done as an elite player, Crawford would be a perfect sixth-man/backup to Wesley Matthews. If not, he'd get lost in the shuffle. Since I don't want to bet against BRoy, I'll give him to Atlanta. My pick: Hawks.
13/14. Wilson Chandler and Jeff Green (Denver and Boston, RFA)-- I'm lumping these two together because they're so similar. They're both 24, they're both 6-8/6-9, they can both play multiple positions but don't have one that's defined, and they're both decent scorers and so-so rebounders for their size. Green turned out to be a terrible fit in Boston: they gave up their center who protected the hoop for a young guy who occupies the same part of the floor as KG. If KG only has another year left, Green could become a decent fit as Boston retools. If not, he's a square peg in a round hole. I actually think he's a good fit in Houston, where he can slot in between Kevin Martin and Luis Scola, and shuffle between the 3 and 4, with some combination of Pat Patterson and maybe even Jordan Hill providing spot minutes in the frontcourt. Chandler is similar, but he's a better shooter and is better in transition than Green. I think a young team that likes to run is the best bet for him. To me, that team is Sacramento, where he is perfect in a lineup with Jimmer at the point, Tyreke Evans at the 2, JJ Hickson at the 4, and DeMarcus Cousins at the 5 (now if they could only get some veteran leadership...). My picks: Green- Rockets; Chandler- Kings.
15. Aaron Brooks (Phoenix, RFA)-- I don't love Brooks's game. He's a score-first point with a so-so attitude. I think he's best in a place where he doesn't have playmaking responsibilities, or where the squad is built around him. Now that Steve Nash is at the tail end of his career, Phoenix could be that place. Brooks didn't play great after he got traded there last season, but he was also injured for much of that time and was adjusting to a new team. If Brooks wanted to win a ring, I would suggest the Lakers, but with Kobe, Gasol, and Bynum all on that team, and Artest already grumbling about not getting enough shots, I can't see him being happy there. My pick: Suns.
16. JJ Barea (Dallas, UFA)-- Barea proved this year that he can be an important piece on a championship team. Unfortunately, I think he's gone from vastly underrated to very overrated. Yes, he's a nice player... but he's a last piece that puts you over the top, not a building block. Barea is great as a sparkplug for a team that needs a shot of energy. I think Dallas, with Kidd on his last legs and Dirk probably headed to the endgame of his career, isn't that team anymore. I think Barea's a perfect fit playing the Dallas role with the Lakers. My pick: Lakers.
17. Shane Battier (Memphis, UFA)-- Battier is a very good defender, but on offense, he's a spot-up shooter. Memphis was a good fit for him, but with Rudy Gay coming back, I don't think there's a spot for him there now. I think the ideal is for him to go to a team with a playmaking point on offense that's committed to team defense. I think he's a perfect fit in NJ, where Deron Williams and Battier would make a perfect duo to lure Dwight Howard north (provided they can dump Brook Lopez). My pick: Nets.
18. Caron Butler (Dallas, UFA)-- Butler is 31, and coming off a torn ACL. But if he comes back healthy, he's a terrific wing who can score, rebound reasonably well, and defend. I don't think he really has a place in Dallas anymore, but I think he'd be a good veteran presence to put next to Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson in Cleveland, both personality-wise, and to take pressure off of them as they grow into their roles. My pick: Cavs.
So these are the free agents that I think will be at least somewhat relevant over the next few years.
Mannix's List
And my thoughts:
1. Nene (Denver, UFA)-- I like Nene. It feels like he's been around forever, and that he's spent half of his career out with busted knees. Both of which are, to some degree, true. But, quietly, I tend to forget that 1) he's 28, and 2) he hasn't missed more than 7 games the last 3 years. In that time, he's turned into a borderline All-Star who can put up almost 15 and 8, shoot a high percentage, and protect the hoop a little bit (though he'll stilll get run over by Dwight Howard). I like Nene on a squad that can get out and run-- he's good in transition and can finish on the break. And while adding Melo and Chauncey Billups was a baffling move for this style, so long as Mike D'Antoni coaches the Knicks, they will run. Adding Nene would give them not just another big who can finish on the break-- it also allows them to move Amare to his natural "4" spot, and also a guy who plays defense to allow them to put up a fight in the playoffs. My pick: Knicks
2. Marc Gasol (Memphis, RFA)-- Four years ago, Marc Gasol was Pau's fatter, less athletic, less polished, arguably uglier little brother. He was also poorer and their parents probably loved him less. Four years later, we can officially say it: Marc is a beast. And, at 26 years old, I think he's a more valuable commodity than Nene. At this point, Pau is still a better player. But, if I were a GM, I would take Marc over Pau when building my team. While his regular season numbers dipped a bit this past season (torpedoing my fantasy team), Gasol was huge in the playoffs. In the playoffs, he put up 15 and 11, and averaged almost two blocks a game during the regular season. His passing and shotblocking perfectly complemented Zach Randolph's low-post scoring for the Grizzlies. And the Grizzlies are, without a doubt, on the rise. They shocked the Spurs in the playoffs, and took the Thunder to 7 games in the second round. And they did it without arguably their best all-around player in Rudy Gay. Any team would love to have Gasol, but at this point, with Zach Randolph still very much in his prime at 30, the Grizz's window of opportunity is just opening. They need to keep Gasol to be legit contenders. He'll definitely want a raise, but, given his restricted status, I think he will (and should) stay with Memphis. My pick: Grizzlies.
3. David West (New Orleans, UFA)-- I'm not as high on David West as maybe his numbers suggest I should be. West is a good low-post scorer with smooth footwork and a consistent jump shot out to about 18 feet. Those are the positives. On the downside, West is, at 6-9, undersized. He's not a great rebounder for a "4" (he's never averaged 9 boards a game), he's not young (30; I know I said Randolph was in his prime at 30, but Randolph doesn't have the injury history, is on an established team, and is way more talented), he's coming off a season-ending injury, and his numbers may have been inflated from playing with Chris Paul. The fact that West walked away from a $7.5 million option for next season to test the free agency waters suggests that he wants to get paid. Unfortunately, I don't see any natural candidates to sign him among the league's playoff contenders. I don't think he'd mesh well with Dwight Howard in Orlando (neither is a great passer), he's not an up-tempo player, and teams like San Antonio and Chicago that do play a style that suits him either have similar players already (Boozer in Chicago) or don't sign big-ticket free agents (San Antonio). I think his best bet is to swallow his pride, re-up short term with New Orleans, prove he's recovered from his injury, and see what Chris Paul does before signing his last contract. I doubt that'll happen, since it looks like he wants to get paid now, and he might end up with whatever lower-tier team will overpay for him, but this is about what I think he should do, not what he will do. My pick: Hornets.
4. Tyson Chandler (Dallas, UFA)-- I love Tyson Chandler. He proved that, on the right team, he's an indispensable piece. Heck, I think that, besides Dirk, he was the Mavs' best, most indispensable player this past season. His offensive game is still limited to alley-oops and putbacks, but he protects the hoop, is a great helpside shot blocker, is one of the few big men who can compete with Dwight Howard physically, is active on the offensive glass, and sets screens. The key to Chandler, though, is putting him in the right situation. Since he's not going to create his own shot, he has to be on a team that has enough firepower that you're not counting on him to score. And he's at his best in the half-court rather than on the break. He'd be a perfect fit for a team like Miami, but unless he wants to take a massive pay cut at age 28, that's a no-go. The other natural destination for him, I think, is Boston. Rajon Rondo is exactly the kind of playmaking point Chandler thrives with, and KG plays further from the hoop than Chandler does on both ends of the floor. I think he's the perfect replacement for Kendrick Perkins (whose trade was awful for the C's). But Boston's core is aging-- KG, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce are all on the downside. Of course, you could say the same thing about Dallas's-- Dirk is at the tail end of his prime, Jason Terry is in his mid-thirties, and Jason Kidd is ancient. I think it's a toss-up between the two, but I think at this point, I think Boston is actually a better fit. Chandler is still in his prime, and the C's may have one more year in their championship window. Crucially, once Dirk retires (or declines), Dallas will have to overhaul its team, while Rajon Rondo's presence in Boston means the Celtics will have a better foundation to build on. So, going forward, Boston is the choice. My pick: Celtics.
5. Thaddeus Young (Philadelphia, RFA)-- He's restricted and he's a perfect fit in Philly until (unless?) Evan Turner emerges as a legit player. He would be wise to re-up, and I think he will. My pick: Sixers.
6. Jason Richardson (Orlando, UFA)-- Richardson is a decent jump-shooter who can be a role player for a contender. But he's 30, so I don't think his window's too big. If I thought Chicago were one piece away from contending, I'd say he should go there, but I think by the time they turn the corner, Richardson will be well into an even steeper decline. I like him to re-up with the Magic to play sidekick to Dwight Howard for another year. My pick: Magic.
9. J.R. Smith (Denver, UFA)-- J.R. Smith is an intriguing player. He's SUPER athletic, isn't a bad rebounder for a shooting guard, and is only 25. On the downside, he hasn't really cared on D in the past (though there were some promising signs once Melo left town), and his attitude has occasionally been a concern. But I think, as a supporting piece on a winner, Smith could be a good fit. I like him in Chicago, where the Bulls just didn't have the firepower to compete with Miami last year. I don't know if Smith will push them past the Heat, and Smith's indifference to defense in the past is a bit of a concern, but I think he's a young piece that gives them extra firepower and another young piece to grow alongside Rose, Noah and Deng. I think he could even be at his best in a Jamal Crawford-type scorer off the bench role, though he's probably a better all-around player (but not as gifted a scorer) as Crawford. My pick: Bulls.
10. Grant Hill (Phoenix, UFA)-- I've got a soft spot for Grant Hill. Yeah, he's 100 years old, but you've gotta love a guy who was a top-5 player in his prime, missed a half-decade of his career, but had the guts to come back and become a solid role player. I want to see Hill get a ring, and it's not going to happen in Phoenix. But he is a perfect leader and 7th man for a contender. Miami is looking for those kinds of players, but Hill, who, in his prime, was the closest thing to LeBron before LeBron himself came along, has a very similar skill set to James. I think I like him on the Spurs- their slow-down game suits his style at this point, and they may have one more run in them, just like Hill, and where he's a much better fit than Richard Jefferson. If not, I guess Atlanta would also make sense. But I'm sticking with San Antonio. My pick: Spurs.
11. Tayshaun Prince (Detroit, UFA)-- Prince is a bad fit on bad teams. He's not a dominant player or a leader, and, at 31, he's too old to grow with a young, rebuilding outfit like the Pistons. But he's still a decent scorer, a terrific defender, and would be a valuable piece for a contender. LA would be a natural fit, but they've got Ron Artest and Lamar Odom already. I actually like him in Atlanta, where he slots in effortlessly at the 3, and gives them a scary frontline with Josh Smith and Al Horford. My pick: Hawks.
12. Jamal Crawford (Atlanta, UFA)-- Crawford is a scoring machine. He can shoot the ball, he's fearless going to the hoop, and my friend Matt Allen thinks he's a top-5 shooting guard of all time. OK, not really, but he's definitely got more love for Crawford than anyone I know. Crawford's flaws are obvious. He's 31, he was significantly worse last year than he was the year before, when he was Sixth Man of the Year, and he doesn't play defense. I think if JR Smith doesn't go to Chicago, Crawford may even be a better fit right now. Problem is, I think by the time they're a contender (in two years), I think Crawford will be more or less finished as a contributor for a contending team. To me, he's perfect where he is: as a scorer off the bench for a team that's pretty good but doesn't have a lot of firepower as is. Another thought was Portland, but the problem there is Brandon Roy. If Roy's injuries mean he's done as an elite player, Crawford would be a perfect sixth-man/backup to Wesley Matthews. If not, he'd get lost in the shuffle. Since I don't want to bet against BRoy, I'll give him to Atlanta. My pick: Hawks.
13/14. Wilson Chandler and Jeff Green (Denver and Boston, RFA)-- I'm lumping these two together because they're so similar. They're both 24, they're both 6-8/6-9, they can both play multiple positions but don't have one that's defined, and they're both decent scorers and so-so rebounders for their size. Green turned out to be a terrible fit in Boston: they gave up their center who protected the hoop for a young guy who occupies the same part of the floor as KG. If KG only has another year left, Green could become a decent fit as Boston retools. If not, he's a square peg in a round hole. I actually think he's a good fit in Houston, where he can slot in between Kevin Martin and Luis Scola, and shuffle between the 3 and 4, with some combination of Pat Patterson and maybe even Jordan Hill providing spot minutes in the frontcourt. Chandler is similar, but he's a better shooter and is better in transition than Green. I think a young team that likes to run is the best bet for him. To me, that team is Sacramento, where he is perfect in a lineup with Jimmer at the point, Tyreke Evans at the 2, JJ Hickson at the 4, and DeMarcus Cousins at the 5 (now if they could only get some veteran leadership...). My picks: Green- Rockets; Chandler- Kings.
15. Aaron Brooks (Phoenix, RFA)-- I don't love Brooks's game. He's a score-first point with a so-so attitude. I think he's best in a place where he doesn't have playmaking responsibilities, or where the squad is built around him. Now that Steve Nash is at the tail end of his career, Phoenix could be that place. Brooks didn't play great after he got traded there last season, but he was also injured for much of that time and was adjusting to a new team. If Brooks wanted to win a ring, I would suggest the Lakers, but with Kobe, Gasol, and Bynum all on that team, and Artest already grumbling about not getting enough shots, I can't see him being happy there. My pick: Suns.
16. JJ Barea (Dallas, UFA)-- Barea proved this year that he can be an important piece on a championship team. Unfortunately, I think he's gone from vastly underrated to very overrated. Yes, he's a nice player... but he's a last piece that puts you over the top, not a building block. Barea is great as a sparkplug for a team that needs a shot of energy. I think Dallas, with Kidd on his last legs and Dirk probably headed to the endgame of his career, isn't that team anymore. I think Barea's a perfect fit playing the Dallas role with the Lakers. My pick: Lakers.
17. Shane Battier (Memphis, UFA)-- Battier is a very good defender, but on offense, he's a spot-up shooter. Memphis was a good fit for him, but with Rudy Gay coming back, I don't think there's a spot for him there now. I think the ideal is for him to go to a team with a playmaking point on offense that's committed to team defense. I think he's a perfect fit in NJ, where Deron Williams and Battier would make a perfect duo to lure Dwight Howard north (provided they can dump Brook Lopez). My pick: Nets.
18. Caron Butler (Dallas, UFA)-- Butler is 31, and coming off a torn ACL. But if he comes back healthy, he's a terrific wing who can score, rebound reasonably well, and defend. I don't think he really has a place in Dallas anymore, but I think he'd be a good veteran presence to put next to Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson in Cleveland, both personality-wise, and to take pressure off of them as they grow into their roles. My pick: Cavs.
So these are the free agents that I think will be at least somewhat relevant over the next few years.
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