On Thursday night, Jeremy Lin faced his first real test as an NBA phenom. Against the defending Eastern Conference champion Heat, it's fair to say it didn't go so well. Lin shot 1 of 11, scored 8 points, dished out just 3 assists, and turned the ball over 8 times. I tuned in for this one closely, figuring the Heat wouldn't be surprised by Lin. Not unexpectedly, Miami threw a game plan at Lin, and he struggled. I figured Miami might try sticking Dwyane Wade on Lin to throw him off his rhythm. Wade is an athletic freak, and one of the league's best man defenders, so him struggling in that case would have been far from unexpected. But the Heat didn't do that.
Instead, Miami kept Mario Chalmers on Lin when he was in the game. Now, Chalmers isn't a bad defender, but he's no DWade. But the key to what the Heat did was to have Chalmers pressure Lin out to a few feet beyond the perimeter. Instead of letting Lin get his head up and initiate the offense (which is one of his big strengths), the Heat put pressure on him high, which clearly unsettled him. The result was 8 turnovers and an easy win for Miami. Of course, it wasn't all the Heat's D-- Lin couldn't get a roll when he got to the hoop, and he was far from the only Knick who struggled from the floor- Amar'e Stoudemire was invisible and Carmelo Anthony barely made a third of his shots. But the Knicks' success lately has revolved around Lin, and his struggles were, I think it's fair to say, a major reason this game was effectively over after 3 quarters.
Pressuring point guards high is, of course, far from a failproof strategy. Try it with Chris Paul, and he'll beat his defender, get into the paint, and, more likely than not, either hit a floater or dish it off to a shooter or a big for an open look. Try it with Steve Nash, and he'll shake the defender and shoot a quick pull-up three, which is a shot he'll hit at a pretty high clip. There are a few reasons it worked so well for the Heat against Lin-- Lin is a good shooter, but he doesn't have Nash's ability to quickly pull up and hit a three off the dribble. He's also not strong enough to drive and dish among the trees the way Chris Paul can. He's more of a pick-and-roll guy who can finish outside the lane and hit the open guy as he comes off a ball screen.
The question, then, is what the Heat's success defending Lin means. Is Linsanity over? Is he going back to the D-League? Of course not. The NBA, like any pro sport, is about adjustments. Lin's got somewhat higher hurdles to face than most. Unlike your typical NBA standout, Lin isn't a physical specimen. He's not strong. He's not very athletic. And he's not explosive. He can't hold a candle to guys like Derrick Rose, Chris Paul and John Wall when it comes to athletic ability. That makes his adjustment harder-- he needs to stand out in other ways. But athleticism is far from an end-all, be-all. Steve Nash became one of the best point guards ever, even though he's an average athlete at best and looks like the pool boy. And Nash is probably the player whose game most resembles Lin's. I think there are two adjustments that can be made to counter aggressive perimeter D like the Heat's. The first is for the Knicks to initiate the pick and roll higher than they have been. Instead of setting the initial screen at the top of the key, they could try initiating the offense at around 28 feet against aggressive defenses. If they can get Melo on board with being the screener, even better. For all the hate that's been thrown his way, Melo can hit an open 23 footer, and he's too strong for just about any 3 not named LeBron to deal with rolling to the hoop. Playing a Lin and Melo two-man game puts pressure on defenses and alleviates pressure on Lin, as he gets the benefit of a screener to clear space and allow him to get his head up.
The other adjustment Lin needs to make is to develop a Nash-type pull up three-point shot. Lin is a good shooter, but he's more of a pick-and-pop guy than an off-the-dribble shooter. If he could develop the ability to hit that three-point pull up, defenses would have to think twice about pressuring him high, as help defenders would have to step out if he beat the high defender off the dribble, which in turn would open up passing lanes for the Knicks' other players. While that's a longer-term project for Lin, I thnk it'd be a huge step in his development.
Showing posts with label NBA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA. Show all posts
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Weighing in on Jeremy Lin
I'm a little late to the party on the Lin story-- it's been a busy few weeks, but he's definitely the biggest story in sports right now, so I feel like a take is in order. First, here's what Lin isn't: he's not Tim Tebow. People are quick to draw the comparison because both are unique (Tebow for his in-your-face brand of Christianity and Lin for his ethnicity, though Lin is also apparently a rather observant Christian) stories whose bumps in playing time have coincided with turnarounds for their respective teams. But there are big differences both in expectations and in performance: Tebow was a first-round pick who won a Heisman in college: everyone and their mom knew who he was. NFL types certainly suggested that he was picked too high, but he didn't exactly come out of nowhere. Lin, on the other hand, definitely did. Those that follow basketball knew about him over the last few years. He was the best player in the Ivy League last year (averaging something like 16 points and 5 assists a game), and was a minor story in the sports blogs even then because he's Asian. But most of us that knew about him figured he'd go by the wayside: he'd get a look in the D-League, maybe be a decent player there, and probably ship off to Europe after a year or two if he decided to play ball again. And we'd never hear about him again. Frankly, I would have been a little surprised had he been drafted. For a year and a half, that's more or less the path his career took: he bounced between the D-League and the end of the Warriors' bench last year, and came to New York this year, presumably to fill out the roster. Then he got into a game and... the history's still being written there.
The biggest reason Lin isn't Tebow, though, is on the court. Because, while Tebow is a mediocre at best (and even that's generous) quarterback who happened to preside over a winning team, Lin is a good basketball player. He's not a fluke. He won't go back to being a guy who sits at the end of the bench, and he'll possibly be an impact player for a long time.
Now, about a week and a half or so ago, just as Lin had put in his fifth or so straight good game, my friend Steve texted me and asked how many guys I thought had better MVP odds than Lin. Since it was 7:30 in the morning and the text woke me up, I grumpily responde, "half the league, he's only played 5 games; if he keeps it up maybe 5 or 6", rolled over, and went back to sleep. In true Steve fashion, he calculated how many guys were in the league, and posted on hi Facebook that I thought there were 225 guys with better MVP odds than Lin. Thanks, Steve. But then I actually thought about it, and I realized it was a question to really think about.
Now, there's no doubt that Lin has been the pivotal piece in the Knicks' turnaround. He's averaged well over 20 points a night (way more than he averaged 2 years ago in the Ivy League!), gotten the stagnant Knicks moving the ball on offense, and keyed a huge resurgence. They've gone from a losing team to one that looks like it could make the playoffs. Of course, how Lin will coexist with Carmelo Anthony is still an open question. The Knicks' biggest problem pre-Lin was their stagnant offense: they had no facilitator at the point, Melo dominated the ball (and jacked up a ton of shots, and Amar'e Stoudemire looked not only out of sync rhythm-wise, but also like he'd lost some explosiveness. Now, there's not much Lin can do if every time the ball goes in to Melo, it doesn't come out. But if Melo can become a more efficient piece who maximizes what he does with his touches instead of dominating the ball, this could be a legitimate team.
As for Lin himself, well, while I definitely don't think he's a fluke, I doubt we'll see him put up 25 and 10 every night. I think he'll level off into a Mike Conley type of point who can give you 16-18 points and 7 or so assists a night. His second time through, other points will stop treating Jeremy Lin night as a joke and pick up on his tendencies. But that doesn't mean he won't still be a very useful player. I think my biggest gripe about his game is his D. Even with a top-notch rim protector in Tyson Chandler behind him, Lin is a big minus on that end. Lost in the Linsanity is that the guys across from him have been putting up numbers almost as big as his. Last game, Lin had 21 and 9... but Deron Williams went for 38 points and the Knicks lost. Now, Deron Williams is a fantastic point, but that's still not a good performance. Two games before that, against New Orleans, Lin went for 26... but Greivis Vasquez went for 15 and 11 and the Knicks lost. And, as much as I love what Vasquez did for Maryland in college, he's not an NBA starting point, and that's a bad stat line to be giving up to him. Those kinds of lines are ugly... and I don't necessarily see them improving.
Of course, that doesn't mean that Lin isn't very much a plus player-- the closest comparison I see for him in the league is Steve Nash-- they're both adept at running the pick and roll, can put the ball in the hoop, and make guys around them better (though Nash dominates the ball more). And, like Lin, Nash is a major liability on D. That definitely keeps him outside of the elite point guard conversation for me... but it doesn't mean that he's not an unexpectedly valuable piece on what could be a decent team.
The biggest reason Lin isn't Tebow, though, is on the court. Because, while Tebow is a mediocre at best (and even that's generous) quarterback who happened to preside over a winning team, Lin is a good basketball player. He's not a fluke. He won't go back to being a guy who sits at the end of the bench, and he'll possibly be an impact player for a long time.
Now, about a week and a half or so ago, just as Lin had put in his fifth or so straight good game, my friend Steve texted me and asked how many guys I thought had better MVP odds than Lin. Since it was 7:30 in the morning and the text woke me up, I grumpily responde, "half the league, he's only played 5 games; if he keeps it up maybe 5 or 6", rolled over, and went back to sleep. In true Steve fashion, he calculated how many guys were in the league, and posted on hi Facebook that I thought there were 225 guys with better MVP odds than Lin. Thanks, Steve. But then I actually thought about it, and I realized it was a question to really think about.
Now, there's no doubt that Lin has been the pivotal piece in the Knicks' turnaround. He's averaged well over 20 points a night (way more than he averaged 2 years ago in the Ivy League!), gotten the stagnant Knicks moving the ball on offense, and keyed a huge resurgence. They've gone from a losing team to one that looks like it could make the playoffs. Of course, how Lin will coexist with Carmelo Anthony is still an open question. The Knicks' biggest problem pre-Lin was their stagnant offense: they had no facilitator at the point, Melo dominated the ball (and jacked up a ton of shots, and Amar'e Stoudemire looked not only out of sync rhythm-wise, but also like he'd lost some explosiveness. Now, there's not much Lin can do if every time the ball goes in to Melo, it doesn't come out. But if Melo can become a more efficient piece who maximizes what he does with his touches instead of dominating the ball, this could be a legitimate team.
As for Lin himself, well, while I definitely don't think he's a fluke, I doubt we'll see him put up 25 and 10 every night. I think he'll level off into a Mike Conley type of point who can give you 16-18 points and 7 or so assists a night. His second time through, other points will stop treating Jeremy Lin night as a joke and pick up on his tendencies. But that doesn't mean he won't still be a very useful player. I think my biggest gripe about his game is his D. Even with a top-notch rim protector in Tyson Chandler behind him, Lin is a big minus on that end. Lost in the Linsanity is that the guys across from him have been putting up numbers almost as big as his. Last game, Lin had 21 and 9... but Deron Williams went for 38 points and the Knicks lost. Now, Deron Williams is a fantastic point, but that's still not a good performance. Two games before that, against New Orleans, Lin went for 26... but Greivis Vasquez went for 15 and 11 and the Knicks lost. And, as much as I love what Vasquez did for Maryland in college, he's not an NBA starting point, and that's a bad stat line to be giving up to him. Those kinds of lines are ugly... and I don't necessarily see them improving.
Of course, that doesn't mean that Lin isn't very much a plus player-- the closest comparison I see for him in the league is Steve Nash-- they're both adept at running the pick and roll, can put the ball in the hoop, and make guys around them better (though Nash dominates the ball more). And, like Lin, Nash is a major liability on D. That definitely keeps him outside of the elite point guard conversation for me... but it doesn't mean that he's not an unexpectedly valuable piece on what could be a decent team.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
NBA- First Week Thoughts (plus Wizards)
General NBA
In my last post, I threw out my NBA thoughts for the year. It's definitely still too early to make some definitive calls, but there are a few developments from the first few games that I think are set to develop into season-long themes. There were a few teams I mentioned that I thought had aged their way out of contention. A few games in, some of those teams have surprised me, while others have had problems similar to the ones I've expected. In the East, I thought the Celtics were that team-- their core of Pierce, Allen and Garnett is old (34, 36 and 35, respectively), Rajon Rondo has been more of a distributor than a scorer, and the depth isn't good enough to let them coast to the playoffs. While everything related to the Celtics has to be taken with a grain of salt (Pierce still has yet to play this season, and all 3 games they've played have been on the road), they haven't exactly looked good so far. Today they got blown out by the Hornets (who aren't exactly an elite squad), and the Heat and Knicks both beat them (albeit in pretty close games). Though I only watched the first game, I think the biggest positive to take away is Rondo's improved jumper (he's knocked down 2 of 5 threes so far and shot over 50% from the field), while the most worrying part is that the depth, frankly, stinks. KG and Ray Allen, just like they have for a few years, look a tad slower and older, and the Celtics aren't going to be able to ride them through the season the way they've been able to in the past. Today, they only played 27 (Garnett) and 30 (Allen) minutes, but in each of the first two games, they averaged 35 and 39 minutes, respectively. For two guys in their mid-thirties, that's not a sustainable pace, especially in a compressed season.
And the problem isn't going to get any better. To get to the playoffs at full strength, they're going to need to have the big three pace themselves, and that'll be hard given that Allen and KG have been playing heavy minutes already, and they're still losing. Brandon Bass has been better than I've expected, but the rest of their supporting cast stinks. Jermaine O'Neal is way over the hill, Marquis Daniels is an 8-minute a game player for a championship team, Keyon Dooling is no good, and the less said about Chris Wilcox, the better. Even with Pierce back, these aren't guys I can see the Celtics riding into the playoffs. At this point, ideally, they need the big 3 to be hovering around 30 minutes most nights in order to get to the playoffs at full strength. I think they'll be good enough, with Pierce healthy, to get back to the playoffs, but, 3 games in, I still think this team isn't a contender.
In the West, there were three squads I thought were done as contenders-- the Spurs, the Mavs, and the Lakers. Two of those three have looked like decent predictions, while one has looked way off. I'll start with the first two. The Lakers haven't exactly looked like the same contender they have been the last few years. They blew out the Jazz at home the other night to improve to 1-2 (the Jazz stink), but they lost to the Bulls at home in the opener, and lost at Sacramento too (Sacramento is pretty talented, but definitely not a contender). But they've definitely had some trouble in these first few games. On the one hand, Kobe looks less old than he has the past few seasons, at least so far. He's not elevating the way he did in his twenties to get his jumper, but he's putting up 25-30 a night with ease. On the other hand, the rest of the squad is struggling. Pau Gasol is putting up numbers in line with what he's put up in the past-- 17 and 9 so far, compared to an average of around 19 and 10 in his Laker career. But, with Lamar Odom gone and Andrew Bynum out so far, they need bona fide #2 star numbers out of him, and 17 and 9 out of Gasol isn't getting it done. And the rest of the roster's been worse. Steve Blake is a nice backup point, but Derek Fisher is 37-- he's not a guy you want on the floor for heavy minutes against the Chris Pauls and Derrick Roses of the league. Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy have been getting 25+ minutes a game. For a championship team, they play 15-18 apiece. Probably less in Murphy's case. And Metta World Peace isn't young anymore either- at one point, he was a guy you could count on to slow down the best wings in the league. Now, at 32, I think he's a 25-30 minute a night guy. But, with the loss of Odom to Dallas, they need more out of Artest on the offensive end, and I don't think that's a good thing for this team. Devin Ebanks was a piece I really liked coming out of WVU, but I think at this point he's a young Trevor Ariza-- long and athletic, but with an unrefined offensive game. I think once Andrew Bynum gets back, this is still very much a solid playoff team-- a starting 5 of Fisher, Kobe, Ebanks, Gasol and Bynum, with World Peace, McRoberts, Blake, Murphy and Jason Kapono coming off the bench is still enough to make the playoffs. I think it's probably enough to win a playoff series too. But this is a team without a legit scoring option off the bench-- Artest was that once, but I don't think he is that anymore: he's not quick enough to beat his man off the dribble anymore, and he's not a guy who comes off screens and creates offense. Andrew Bynum has good hands-- he'll grab an offensive board and put it back, and occasionally he'll even make a move and score, but his post game is still pretty raw. The rest of the rotation... the less said the better. Right now, the Lakers are averaging 91 points a night. They've got three guys averaging double figures, and one of them is a 33 year old Kobe (and make no mistake-- he's an old 33; at 33, Jordan had been in the league for 11 years, and had taken time off to play baseball in the middle. Kobe's been in the league for 15 years now) averaging 28 a game. If you need Kobe to keep dropping 28 a night for your team to get to the playoffs, you're going to be in trouble once you get there. To stay a contender, I think they need Bynum to come back 100%, Gasol to step up his play, and probably another good scorer off the bench. But I can't really think of another guy who's as perfect a fit on this team as Odom. I think, as a contender, they're finished.
The Mavs are, I think, in even worse shape. I argued that the Lakers are done as a contender, but that's very debatable, and I think it's absurd to argue that they're not a playoff team. I see the Mavs struggling to make the playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki is still a star, but he's 33. Not as old a 33 as Kobe, but he's not young. He's struggled early this season, but I think he'll rebound and put up his usual 22-24 points a night. The rest of the team, though, is problematic. While they got through the playoffs without Caron Butler, having him there to take the load off of the Mavs older pieces during the season helped them peak in the playoffs. This year, they don't have Butler. Shawn Marion is a year older (also 33), Jason Kidd is on his last legs at 38 and, I think, shouldn't be playing more than 22 minutes a night or so, on average. Lamar Odom is a nice piece off the bench, but he still hasn't integrated himself into the squad. And Vince Carter is no longer the athletic scoring machine he was at 26 years old-- he's a going-on-35 jump shooter who still doesn't play D. Worst of all, without Tyson Chandler, they don't have the single piece to organize their defense and make them a decent defensive squad. And, with Chandler, Butler and JJ Barea gone, they don't have the depth to run teams off the floor anymore. Last year, they could afford to throw a defensive stopper (Deshawn Stevenson) out at the off-guard in the playoffs because Barea and Jason Terry could give them explosive offense off the bench, while Chandler gave them a constant rim protector at the 5. Now, they've got Brendan Haywood (who can spell Chandler for 10-15 minutes a night, but can't sniff his jock full time) at the 5, with Odom and Terry their only viable options off the bench. With Barea gone, Delonte West is Kidd's top backup (and West isn't much of a playmaker). And the rest of the problems fall into place after that. I actually think Barea is overrated at this point (he's a nice energy guy off the bench, but he's a liability playing more than 20-25 minutes a night), but the Mavs still need an energetic backup who can initiate the offense and spell Kidd for those 20-25 minutes a night, and, with Barea gone, they don't have that anymore. For me, this is a team without an identity. Nowitzki is still a top scorer, but there's no real #2 (Marion, for me, is a #3. Terry is a #3 off the bench). Worse, there's no defensive identity without Chandler-- Dirk is a guy who became above average on D with Chandler there. With him gone, he's average to below average. This isn't just a pretty mediocre defensive team, they're not much good on offense either. And, for me, that's a big problem that makes them not just a team that's out of contention, but one that will struggle to make the playoffs.
Now, the team I think I was wrong about is the Spurs. This is a team that's been able to change its supporting cast for years, but has been a contender for almost a decade and a half because they've been able to put very good pieces around Tim Duncan. At this point, Duncan is well into the downside of his career. Last season, the team unexpectedly came together and had a great regular season, but, once the playoffs came around, the Grizzlies were younger, bigger inside, and more energetic. The Grizzlies won the series in 6, and it wasn't really close. This year, I think the Spurs have the depth to be able to pace themselves through the regular season. I still think Duncan is a guy who can give them 20 and 10 on his day. But the key is that, to contend, they want to minimize the nights where Duncan goes 30+ minutes and maximize the number of nights where he can go 20-25 minutes, put up 10 and 6... and they can still win. The first two games have made that look like a real possibility. In their first game, they beat those same Grizzlies by 13, and today they blew out a talented Clippers squad by 25. Duncan's played about half of each game and dropped 10 apiece on those nights. Manu Ginobili (who isn't young himself at 34) has put up 24 each night... but in only 29 minutes of work a night. And even Tony Parker (the youngest of the group at 29) has averaged less than 30 minutes in the first two games. The key has been the Spurs' ability to throw numbers at other teams. Their best lineup still features Duncan, Ginobili and Parker (along with Richard Jefferson and either DeJuan Blair or Tiago Splitter)... but right now, they've got quality backups at every spot. Rookie Kawhi Leonard looks like a terrific pick-- he'll be able to give them defense and rebounding in 15-20 minutes a night. Blair and Splitter are in the big man rotation with Duncan, along with Matt Bonner (who plays decent D and shoots well), while James Anderson and TJ Ford are also good pieces to have on the bench. This is a team with 10 guys who aren't liabilities going 20 minutes in a given night. With all those quality pieces, this is a team that I still think can contend if everyone stays healthy-- so long as Duncan's averaged 25 minutes a night for the season, he may still have another playoff run in him. And, even in the West, with 4 minutes to go in the 4th, I don't know that any team other than Oklahoma City and maybe the Lakers and Clips have a 5 that can contend with the Parker-Ginobili-Jefferson-Blair-Duncan fivesome.
Wizards Outlook
Last, I'm gonna talk a bit about the Wizards who, through two games, look a lot like the same garbage that we've seen on the floor since the Arenas-Jamison-Butler trio was broken up. I think personnel is an issue, but right now, I think coaching is too. John Wall has a lot of upside and a skill set (rumor is he even developed something that looks like a jumper, though I haven't seen it yet this season), but I don't think Flip Saunders is putting him in position to do well. Wall can beat anyone in the league off the dribble. Problem is, as we've seen even against the Nets and the Hawks, he's not going to elevate over shot-blockers to score. And he also hasn't developed a mid-range pull up game the way Derrick Rose has, meaning that he needs guys around him who can hit the three if he drives and kicks, plus bigs who can catch the ball and finish if he dishes on the drive. Wall can drive and dish, but Andray Blatche still isn't getting his hands dirty on the inside, while Javale McGee's offensive game involves trying to dunk everything. And Rashard Lewis's offensive game right now involves spotting up and missing jumpers, and getting in the post and missing off-balance fadeaways. Nick Young can create some offense off the dribble, and he's actually got a pretty good mid-range jumper, but that's about all.
For me, this is a squad that needs to be pick-and-rolling others to death, but I think I could count the number of pick and rolls I saw them run the first two games on one hand. Part of the problem may be that Wall won't hit the 18-foot jumper if his defender goes over the screen, but I think it wouldn't hurt to run it anyway, if anything to open up space for Wall on the perimeter. But right now, the offense still looks like Wall driving all the way to the hoop and missing a contested shot, kicking it to Lewis to miss a contested jumper, Andray Blatche standing 15 feet from the hoop and forcing up garbage, and Nick Young/Jordan Crawford going one on one. As a result, the team hasn't been good on offense. But that's not the entire problem. This also isn't a good defensive team (New Jersey put up 90 in the first game, but New Jersey started Kris Humphries, Johan Petro and Anthony Morrow in that game and played Damion James for 40 minutes; none of those guys would be in a contender's rotation. Kris Humphries is Popeye Jones if Popeye Jones had been married to a Kardashian)-- Andray Blatche stands around and watches the ball, Rashard Lewis is too soft to guard 4s and too slow to guard 3s at this point in his career, and Nick Young and Jordan Crawford aren't interested enough to be better than average defenders on their best nights. Wall stays in front of his guy, is athletic, and has a great wingspan, but having one plus defender in your starting 5 isn't going to make your team good defensively. Add to that Javale McGee's desire to block every shot and allergy to moving his feet, and you've got a defensive squad that isn't exactly built to succeed either.
And, to add insult to injury, the rebounding is terrible. This is a team with size (McGee, Blatche and Lewis are all 6'10"+), but none of them likes to box out, and when McGee goes all out to block a shot, opposing forwards have a field day crashing the glass and getting second-chance buckets. Which is why the Nets out-rebounded them 58-38 (with unathletic, 6'9" Kris Humphries grabbing 16 boards, including SEVEN offensive and 6'7" Damion James adding 14, including 10 offensive), while the Hawks came out with a 45-32 advantage. So this isn't a team that rebounds either. In fact, I don't really know what this team does well.
So where to improve? Well, first I think Saunders has to go. He's not putting the team in a place where it can succeed. But I really think the next step is to dump Blatche. I really don't care what you take for him. Take a second rounder for him. Give him up for a bag of potato chips, I don't care, just get him off the team. Blatche is a talented player-- he's long, he's got good hands, and he's got a solid skill set, range out to 15 feet, and decent passing skills when he wants to give it up. But he makes your team worse. He doesn't play D. He doesn't care enough to be a good rebounder (boxing out isn't his thing). He's a ball stopper on offense (he gets it 15 feet out and then doesn't know what to do with it). And his attitude is a killer. Plus, as much as pundits love to say he's athletic, he's really not very athletic. Blatche is 6'11" and COORDINATED, for sure. He can catch the ball, he can make moves without stumbling over himself, and his footwork is OK. He's not a guy who looks like he's never touched a ball before when he gets a pass. But he's also in no way a particularly good athlete. He doesn't jump exceptionally high, he's not explosive, and he's not quick. Javale McGee IS a terrific athlete, but he's also uncoordinated. Half the time, he looks like he doesn't know what his limbs are doing. But that's beside the point. If I were building this team, I'd dump Blatche, throw Chris Singleton into the lineup at the 3, and maybe even introduce Jan Vesely into the starting lineup once he gets healthy (or, if not, throw in Rony Turiaf). Wall's strength is his blazing quickness in the open floor-- this is a team whose offense needs to be built around that. Nick Young is a decent half-court scorer, but I think he can also run. Singleton can do the same (and occasionally hit a three). Vesely is a 6'11" horse who can run the floor as well as any guy his size. And McGee can get up and down the floor, too. So long as this team stinks, you might as well turn it into an entertaining circus. The instant anyone grabs a board, they should be looking to outlet the ball to Wall and take off. A break with Wall leading and Young (or Singleton) and Vesely on the flanks, with McGee trailing is scary. Especially since there aren't many 5s in the league who can beat McGee down the floor. I think, if you're building a team around Wall, that's the way to do it. And the first step is dumping Blatche.
In my last post, I threw out my NBA thoughts for the year. It's definitely still too early to make some definitive calls, but there are a few developments from the first few games that I think are set to develop into season-long themes. There were a few teams I mentioned that I thought had aged their way out of contention. A few games in, some of those teams have surprised me, while others have had problems similar to the ones I've expected. In the East, I thought the Celtics were that team-- their core of Pierce, Allen and Garnett is old (34, 36 and 35, respectively), Rajon Rondo has been more of a distributor than a scorer, and the depth isn't good enough to let them coast to the playoffs. While everything related to the Celtics has to be taken with a grain of salt (Pierce still has yet to play this season, and all 3 games they've played have been on the road), they haven't exactly looked good so far. Today they got blown out by the Hornets (who aren't exactly an elite squad), and the Heat and Knicks both beat them (albeit in pretty close games). Though I only watched the first game, I think the biggest positive to take away is Rondo's improved jumper (he's knocked down 2 of 5 threes so far and shot over 50% from the field), while the most worrying part is that the depth, frankly, stinks. KG and Ray Allen, just like they have for a few years, look a tad slower and older, and the Celtics aren't going to be able to ride them through the season the way they've been able to in the past. Today, they only played 27 (Garnett) and 30 (Allen) minutes, but in each of the first two games, they averaged 35 and 39 minutes, respectively. For two guys in their mid-thirties, that's not a sustainable pace, especially in a compressed season.
And the problem isn't going to get any better. To get to the playoffs at full strength, they're going to need to have the big three pace themselves, and that'll be hard given that Allen and KG have been playing heavy minutes already, and they're still losing. Brandon Bass has been better than I've expected, but the rest of their supporting cast stinks. Jermaine O'Neal is way over the hill, Marquis Daniels is an 8-minute a game player for a championship team, Keyon Dooling is no good, and the less said about Chris Wilcox, the better. Even with Pierce back, these aren't guys I can see the Celtics riding into the playoffs. At this point, ideally, they need the big 3 to be hovering around 30 minutes most nights in order to get to the playoffs at full strength. I think they'll be good enough, with Pierce healthy, to get back to the playoffs, but, 3 games in, I still think this team isn't a contender.
In the West, there were three squads I thought were done as contenders-- the Spurs, the Mavs, and the Lakers. Two of those three have looked like decent predictions, while one has looked way off. I'll start with the first two. The Lakers haven't exactly looked like the same contender they have been the last few years. They blew out the Jazz at home the other night to improve to 1-2 (the Jazz stink), but they lost to the Bulls at home in the opener, and lost at Sacramento too (Sacramento is pretty talented, but definitely not a contender). But they've definitely had some trouble in these first few games. On the one hand, Kobe looks less old than he has the past few seasons, at least so far. He's not elevating the way he did in his twenties to get his jumper, but he's putting up 25-30 a night with ease. On the other hand, the rest of the squad is struggling. Pau Gasol is putting up numbers in line with what he's put up in the past-- 17 and 9 so far, compared to an average of around 19 and 10 in his Laker career. But, with Lamar Odom gone and Andrew Bynum out so far, they need bona fide #2 star numbers out of him, and 17 and 9 out of Gasol isn't getting it done. And the rest of the roster's been worse. Steve Blake is a nice backup point, but Derek Fisher is 37-- he's not a guy you want on the floor for heavy minutes against the Chris Pauls and Derrick Roses of the league. Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy have been getting 25+ minutes a game. For a championship team, they play 15-18 apiece. Probably less in Murphy's case. And Metta World Peace isn't young anymore either- at one point, he was a guy you could count on to slow down the best wings in the league. Now, at 32, I think he's a 25-30 minute a night guy. But, with the loss of Odom to Dallas, they need more out of Artest on the offensive end, and I don't think that's a good thing for this team. Devin Ebanks was a piece I really liked coming out of WVU, but I think at this point he's a young Trevor Ariza-- long and athletic, but with an unrefined offensive game. I think once Andrew Bynum gets back, this is still very much a solid playoff team-- a starting 5 of Fisher, Kobe, Ebanks, Gasol and Bynum, with World Peace, McRoberts, Blake, Murphy and Jason Kapono coming off the bench is still enough to make the playoffs. I think it's probably enough to win a playoff series too. But this is a team without a legit scoring option off the bench-- Artest was that once, but I don't think he is that anymore: he's not quick enough to beat his man off the dribble anymore, and he's not a guy who comes off screens and creates offense. Andrew Bynum has good hands-- he'll grab an offensive board and put it back, and occasionally he'll even make a move and score, but his post game is still pretty raw. The rest of the rotation... the less said the better. Right now, the Lakers are averaging 91 points a night. They've got three guys averaging double figures, and one of them is a 33 year old Kobe (and make no mistake-- he's an old 33; at 33, Jordan had been in the league for 11 years, and had taken time off to play baseball in the middle. Kobe's been in the league for 15 years now) averaging 28 a game. If you need Kobe to keep dropping 28 a night for your team to get to the playoffs, you're going to be in trouble once you get there. To stay a contender, I think they need Bynum to come back 100%, Gasol to step up his play, and probably another good scorer off the bench. But I can't really think of another guy who's as perfect a fit on this team as Odom. I think, as a contender, they're finished.
The Mavs are, I think, in even worse shape. I argued that the Lakers are done as a contender, but that's very debatable, and I think it's absurd to argue that they're not a playoff team. I see the Mavs struggling to make the playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki is still a star, but he's 33. Not as old a 33 as Kobe, but he's not young. He's struggled early this season, but I think he'll rebound and put up his usual 22-24 points a night. The rest of the team, though, is problematic. While they got through the playoffs without Caron Butler, having him there to take the load off of the Mavs older pieces during the season helped them peak in the playoffs. This year, they don't have Butler. Shawn Marion is a year older (also 33), Jason Kidd is on his last legs at 38 and, I think, shouldn't be playing more than 22 minutes a night or so, on average. Lamar Odom is a nice piece off the bench, but he still hasn't integrated himself into the squad. And Vince Carter is no longer the athletic scoring machine he was at 26 years old-- he's a going-on-35 jump shooter who still doesn't play D. Worst of all, without Tyson Chandler, they don't have the single piece to organize their defense and make them a decent defensive squad. And, with Chandler, Butler and JJ Barea gone, they don't have the depth to run teams off the floor anymore. Last year, they could afford to throw a defensive stopper (Deshawn Stevenson) out at the off-guard in the playoffs because Barea and Jason Terry could give them explosive offense off the bench, while Chandler gave them a constant rim protector at the 5. Now, they've got Brendan Haywood (who can spell Chandler for 10-15 minutes a night, but can't sniff his jock full time) at the 5, with Odom and Terry their only viable options off the bench. With Barea gone, Delonte West is Kidd's top backup (and West isn't much of a playmaker). And the rest of the problems fall into place after that. I actually think Barea is overrated at this point (he's a nice energy guy off the bench, but he's a liability playing more than 20-25 minutes a night), but the Mavs still need an energetic backup who can initiate the offense and spell Kidd for those 20-25 minutes a night, and, with Barea gone, they don't have that anymore. For me, this is a team without an identity. Nowitzki is still a top scorer, but there's no real #2 (Marion, for me, is a #3. Terry is a #3 off the bench). Worse, there's no defensive identity without Chandler-- Dirk is a guy who became above average on D with Chandler there. With him gone, he's average to below average. This isn't just a pretty mediocre defensive team, they're not much good on offense either. And, for me, that's a big problem that makes them not just a team that's out of contention, but one that will struggle to make the playoffs.
Now, the team I think I was wrong about is the Spurs. This is a team that's been able to change its supporting cast for years, but has been a contender for almost a decade and a half because they've been able to put very good pieces around Tim Duncan. At this point, Duncan is well into the downside of his career. Last season, the team unexpectedly came together and had a great regular season, but, once the playoffs came around, the Grizzlies were younger, bigger inside, and more energetic. The Grizzlies won the series in 6, and it wasn't really close. This year, I think the Spurs have the depth to be able to pace themselves through the regular season. I still think Duncan is a guy who can give them 20 and 10 on his day. But the key is that, to contend, they want to minimize the nights where Duncan goes 30+ minutes and maximize the number of nights where he can go 20-25 minutes, put up 10 and 6... and they can still win. The first two games have made that look like a real possibility. In their first game, they beat those same Grizzlies by 13, and today they blew out a talented Clippers squad by 25. Duncan's played about half of each game and dropped 10 apiece on those nights. Manu Ginobili (who isn't young himself at 34) has put up 24 each night... but in only 29 minutes of work a night. And even Tony Parker (the youngest of the group at 29) has averaged less than 30 minutes in the first two games. The key has been the Spurs' ability to throw numbers at other teams. Their best lineup still features Duncan, Ginobili and Parker (along with Richard Jefferson and either DeJuan Blair or Tiago Splitter)... but right now, they've got quality backups at every spot. Rookie Kawhi Leonard looks like a terrific pick-- he'll be able to give them defense and rebounding in 15-20 minutes a night. Blair and Splitter are in the big man rotation with Duncan, along with Matt Bonner (who plays decent D and shoots well), while James Anderson and TJ Ford are also good pieces to have on the bench. This is a team with 10 guys who aren't liabilities going 20 minutes in a given night. With all those quality pieces, this is a team that I still think can contend if everyone stays healthy-- so long as Duncan's averaged 25 minutes a night for the season, he may still have another playoff run in him. And, even in the West, with 4 minutes to go in the 4th, I don't know that any team other than Oklahoma City and maybe the Lakers and Clips have a 5 that can contend with the Parker-Ginobili-Jefferson-Blair-Duncan fivesome.
Wizards Outlook
Last, I'm gonna talk a bit about the Wizards who, through two games, look a lot like the same garbage that we've seen on the floor since the Arenas-Jamison-Butler trio was broken up. I think personnel is an issue, but right now, I think coaching is too. John Wall has a lot of upside and a skill set (rumor is he even developed something that looks like a jumper, though I haven't seen it yet this season), but I don't think Flip Saunders is putting him in position to do well. Wall can beat anyone in the league off the dribble. Problem is, as we've seen even against the Nets and the Hawks, he's not going to elevate over shot-blockers to score. And he also hasn't developed a mid-range pull up game the way Derrick Rose has, meaning that he needs guys around him who can hit the three if he drives and kicks, plus bigs who can catch the ball and finish if he dishes on the drive. Wall can drive and dish, but Andray Blatche still isn't getting his hands dirty on the inside, while Javale McGee's offensive game involves trying to dunk everything. And Rashard Lewis's offensive game right now involves spotting up and missing jumpers, and getting in the post and missing off-balance fadeaways. Nick Young can create some offense off the dribble, and he's actually got a pretty good mid-range jumper, but that's about all.
For me, this is a squad that needs to be pick-and-rolling others to death, but I think I could count the number of pick and rolls I saw them run the first two games on one hand. Part of the problem may be that Wall won't hit the 18-foot jumper if his defender goes over the screen, but I think it wouldn't hurt to run it anyway, if anything to open up space for Wall on the perimeter. But right now, the offense still looks like Wall driving all the way to the hoop and missing a contested shot, kicking it to Lewis to miss a contested jumper, Andray Blatche standing 15 feet from the hoop and forcing up garbage, and Nick Young/Jordan Crawford going one on one. As a result, the team hasn't been good on offense. But that's not the entire problem. This also isn't a good defensive team (New Jersey put up 90 in the first game, but New Jersey started Kris Humphries, Johan Petro and Anthony Morrow in that game and played Damion James for 40 minutes; none of those guys would be in a contender's rotation. Kris Humphries is Popeye Jones if Popeye Jones had been married to a Kardashian)-- Andray Blatche stands around and watches the ball, Rashard Lewis is too soft to guard 4s and too slow to guard 3s at this point in his career, and Nick Young and Jordan Crawford aren't interested enough to be better than average defenders on their best nights. Wall stays in front of his guy, is athletic, and has a great wingspan, but having one plus defender in your starting 5 isn't going to make your team good defensively. Add to that Javale McGee's desire to block every shot and allergy to moving his feet, and you've got a defensive squad that isn't exactly built to succeed either.
And, to add insult to injury, the rebounding is terrible. This is a team with size (McGee, Blatche and Lewis are all 6'10"+), but none of them likes to box out, and when McGee goes all out to block a shot, opposing forwards have a field day crashing the glass and getting second-chance buckets. Which is why the Nets out-rebounded them 58-38 (with unathletic, 6'9" Kris Humphries grabbing 16 boards, including SEVEN offensive and 6'7" Damion James adding 14, including 10 offensive), while the Hawks came out with a 45-32 advantage. So this isn't a team that rebounds either. In fact, I don't really know what this team does well.
So where to improve? Well, first I think Saunders has to go. He's not putting the team in a place where it can succeed. But I really think the next step is to dump Blatche. I really don't care what you take for him. Take a second rounder for him. Give him up for a bag of potato chips, I don't care, just get him off the team. Blatche is a talented player-- he's long, he's got good hands, and he's got a solid skill set, range out to 15 feet, and decent passing skills when he wants to give it up. But he makes your team worse. He doesn't play D. He doesn't care enough to be a good rebounder (boxing out isn't his thing). He's a ball stopper on offense (he gets it 15 feet out and then doesn't know what to do with it). And his attitude is a killer. Plus, as much as pundits love to say he's athletic, he's really not very athletic. Blatche is 6'11" and COORDINATED, for sure. He can catch the ball, he can make moves without stumbling over himself, and his footwork is OK. He's not a guy who looks like he's never touched a ball before when he gets a pass. But he's also in no way a particularly good athlete. He doesn't jump exceptionally high, he's not explosive, and he's not quick. Javale McGee IS a terrific athlete, but he's also uncoordinated. Half the time, he looks like he doesn't know what his limbs are doing. But that's beside the point. If I were building this team, I'd dump Blatche, throw Chris Singleton into the lineup at the 3, and maybe even introduce Jan Vesely into the starting lineup once he gets healthy (or, if not, throw in Rony Turiaf). Wall's strength is his blazing quickness in the open floor-- this is a team whose offense needs to be built around that. Nick Young is a decent half-court scorer, but I think he can also run. Singleton can do the same (and occasionally hit a three). Vesely is a 6'11" horse who can run the floor as well as any guy his size. And McGee can get up and down the floor, too. So long as this team stinks, you might as well turn it into an entertaining circus. The instant anyone grabs a board, they should be looking to outlet the ball to Wall and take off. A break with Wall leading and Young (or Singleton) and Vesely on the flanks, with McGee trailing is scary. Especially since there aren't many 5s in the league who can beat McGee down the floor. I think, if you're building a team around Wall, that's the way to do it. And the first step is dumping Blatche.
Sunday, December 25, 2011
NBA is back
It's Christmas which, for me, means the return of NBA basketball. This past season was, for me, the best I can remember. The league is exciting to watch, the stars are great, and, while you can narrow the list of title contenders to 5 or 6 before the season begins, you can't say with 90% certainty which of 2 or 3 teams will win the title (for most of the 90's, you knew on day 1 that, unless Jordan or Pippen tore an ACL, the Bulls were gonna be champs; in the 80's, the question was whether it was gonna be the Lakers or the Celtics winning the title (with the Sixers and then the Pistons occasionally sprinkled in). Last season, you had a list of candidates, but there really wasn't a team that you KNEW was going to be on top on day 1. The Lakers were definitely a slight favorite to repeat, but the Heat were always a possibility, the Spurs (my personal pick at the start...) were in the mix, the Celtics were still a strong contender, and teams like the Mavs, the Thunder and even the Magic and Blazers (if everything went right) were a possibility.
This year, I think the picture's a little different. Brandon Roy's sad retirement puts the Blazers out of the picture in the short run (and Greg Oden's 25th straight season-ending injury throws their medium-term future into doubt), and I think the Spurs, and probably even the Celtics and Lakers (unless they pick up Dwight Howard) have been aged out of contention. I'm in a minority here (I think), but I also think losing Tyson Chandler instantly takes the Mavs out of contention to repeat. So who can I imagine winning it? Well, the Heat are obvious favorites. Another year together for the big three (I refuse to capitalize that...), and they added a really solid outside shooter/perimeter defender in Shane Battier. Also, they have Eddy Curry and Juwan Howard. While I think the Heat should be a better team, I think the biggest problem for them still hasn't been addressed-- they're pretty weak in the middle. The best candidates to beat them are teams that do have that interior presence. Their main challengers in the East are the Bulls. They've got the league's reigning MVP in Derrick Rose; they've still got one of the more intriguing frontcourts in the league with Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng backed up by Omer Asik and Taj Gibson. They've got solid three-point shooters in Deng and Kyle Korver, and they addressed what I thought was their biggest need by adding a scoring two with a solid mid-range game in Rip Hamilton (though he's definitely on the downside of his career, I think he'll thrive next to Rose). But while the Bulls have a superstar and some nice pieces, they've really only got a single star player. If Rose isn't on his game, no one else can really step up and take over. Boozer's a solid piece and a good scorer, but you don't go into a game thinking about how to stop Carlos Boozer. On a big day, he'll give you 22 and 10. On an off day, it'll be 12 and 6. But you'll never come out of a game thinking that you were killed by Carlos Boozer. Luol Deng's the wing version of Boozer. Joakim Noah's a terrific piece, but he's a defense and rebounding guy-- he's very good at those things, but I get the impression Noah is a solid individual defender, but not a dominant one in the Tyson Chandler mold-- I don't think he has Chandler's defensive communication ability and basketball IQ (though he's better on the offensive end), and I don't think he makes his teammates better on that end in the same way Chandler does. But I think their quality and depth make them a threat.
The other team I see as a threat to the Heat in the East is a dark horse-- the Knicks. This was a good team last year, but not a serious threat in May. The reason for that was obvious-- they couldn't stop anyone. They've got two of the five or six best scorers in the league in Amar'e and Melo. Each of those guys is... average at best on D. And Amar'e's also an indifferent rebounder (he'll put up the numbers there, but that's largely been just because over the course of a game someone will get boards, and the Knicks have been awful at center for a long time). Landry Fields is a nice piece (good defender, and probably the best rebounding 2 in the game) when he isn't asked to do too much on offense (and he's not in New York, with the two headliners dominating the ball on offense). Point guard is a question mark-- I never thought Chauncey Billups was the answer, but Iman Shumpert and Toney Douglas are both rotation players for me. If Baron Davis decides he wants to play ball this year and doesn't look like a beached whale on the court, I'm not entirely sure he can still turn it on anymore even if he wants to. But I think what makes the Knicks a contender is Chandler. He instantly takes a below-average defensive team and makes it potentially very good. Chandler protects the rim better than any center in the league not named Dwight Howard, is one of the best positional big men (if not THE best) in the game today, and is great at putting his perimeter guys into position. In short, he's just what the Knicks need on that end. Melo and Amar'e aren't the awful defenders some people like to paint them as, I think, but having a guy behind them who can erase their mistakes (Amar'e is a great athlete, but he's out of position frequently enough that guys like Boozer and David West, not to mention Zach Randolph, can eat him for lunch on the offensive end). With two guys who, on a given night, are capable of going off for 40, and a center who, if he stays healthy, changes the game defensively, this is a team that can be a threat. I also think they match up exceptionally well with the Heat-- Chandler made life hell for the Big Three in the Finals, and, while LeBron and DWade are terrific at closing down top scoring points and wings, neither of them, and especially not Bosh, can really match up with Stoudemire on that end. The Knicks' biggest problems are point guard and depth inside. The two bigs in their rotation after Chandler and Stoudemire are Jared Jeffries (ew) and Josh Harrellson (somehow even worse). That's BAD. They really need to shore that up to be a real contender. I also think they need at least a league-average point guard-- Douglas and Shumpert are solid combo/rotation types, but I don't think either is a starting point on a championship team. Beyond that, I think the East doesn't really have any more real contenders: the Celtics are too old, the Magic have Jameer Nelson and a bunch of garbage next to Dwight Howard, and the Hawks are a group of role players looking for a piece to build around.
In the West, I think the Thunder are the favorites. They've got a guy who I honestly think is already one of the league's greatest ever scorers in Kevin Durant (and he's getting better; today, he was finishing at the rim- scary). Russell Westbrook is dynamic off the dribble and a handful for any team (including his own when he's not in control). Serge Ibaka is an athletic shot-blocker who can hit the 18 footer. Kendrick Perkins gives them a big body who can battle inside and make life hard for traditional bigs. James Harden gives them offense off the bench, while Thabo Sefolosha and Eric Maynor are plus defenders. I think they're a complete squad, and they're another squad that matches up well with the Heat. The biggest challengers, for me, are another dark horse-- the Clippers. Lamar Odom or not, the Mavs just aren't good enough defensively without Chandler, while the Lakers, without Odom and with Kobe aging, don't have the depth to compete anymore. The Spurs aren't getting any younger, and the Nuggets don't have a superstar (and half their squad is stuck in China). Which leaves the Clips. To me, this is the most intriguing roster in the league. Chris Paul, if he's health, is the best point in the league (yes, better than Rose). No one can contain him off the dribble, and he makes guys around him better in a way that no other point in the league does (for me only Deron Williams comes close). Blake Griffin is an exciting talent who's a top-5 athlete in the league (though, watching him, it really doesn't look like he's taken his game to the next level; he still can't hit the 15 footer with any consistency, doesn't have a go-to post move, and doesn't look comfortable off the dribble if he can't jump over the guy manning him) who should look even better running the pick-and-roll with Paul and catching his alley-oops. DeAndre Jordan is a terrific shot blocker who makes life hard on driving wings (though he's a horrible free throw shooter). The rest of the roster is bizarrely constructed, though, which is what makes this such an intriguing squad. If Caron Butler is back and healthy, he's a solid wing scorer who can defend most 2/3s, while Ryan Gomes is a big body. But the quality depth is almost entirely at one position: the point. Mo Williams is an above-average starting point on a good team, but at 6-1, he can't guard the 2, and you can't really play him and the 6-0 Paul together without giving up a whole lot of size defensively, so I have a hard time imagining him giving them more than 15 quality minutes a night. Then, if that's not enough, they've also got a promising backup point prospect in Eric Bledsoe (who's injured right now) AND a good vet (who I think is best used as a backup) in Chauncey Billups. Not to mention Randy Foye is still on the roster. Which, by my count, gives the Clips four point guards... zero of whom can guard the 2. All of which makes me interested to see what their rotation looks like.
Either way, I'm excited to see how this season unwinds. Shortened or not, it's gonna be a great season.
This year, I think the picture's a little different. Brandon Roy's sad retirement puts the Blazers out of the picture in the short run (and Greg Oden's 25th straight season-ending injury throws their medium-term future into doubt), and I think the Spurs, and probably even the Celtics and Lakers (unless they pick up Dwight Howard) have been aged out of contention. I'm in a minority here (I think), but I also think losing Tyson Chandler instantly takes the Mavs out of contention to repeat. So who can I imagine winning it? Well, the Heat are obvious favorites. Another year together for the big three (I refuse to capitalize that...), and they added a really solid outside shooter/perimeter defender in Shane Battier. Also, they have Eddy Curry and Juwan Howard. While I think the Heat should be a better team, I think the biggest problem for them still hasn't been addressed-- they're pretty weak in the middle. The best candidates to beat them are teams that do have that interior presence. Their main challengers in the East are the Bulls. They've got the league's reigning MVP in Derrick Rose; they've still got one of the more intriguing frontcourts in the league with Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng backed up by Omer Asik and Taj Gibson. They've got solid three-point shooters in Deng and Kyle Korver, and they addressed what I thought was their biggest need by adding a scoring two with a solid mid-range game in Rip Hamilton (though he's definitely on the downside of his career, I think he'll thrive next to Rose). But while the Bulls have a superstar and some nice pieces, they've really only got a single star player. If Rose isn't on his game, no one else can really step up and take over. Boozer's a solid piece and a good scorer, but you don't go into a game thinking about how to stop Carlos Boozer. On a big day, he'll give you 22 and 10. On an off day, it'll be 12 and 6. But you'll never come out of a game thinking that you were killed by Carlos Boozer. Luol Deng's the wing version of Boozer. Joakim Noah's a terrific piece, but he's a defense and rebounding guy-- he's very good at those things, but I get the impression Noah is a solid individual defender, but not a dominant one in the Tyson Chandler mold-- I don't think he has Chandler's defensive communication ability and basketball IQ (though he's better on the offensive end), and I don't think he makes his teammates better on that end in the same way Chandler does. But I think their quality and depth make them a threat.
The other team I see as a threat to the Heat in the East is a dark horse-- the Knicks. This was a good team last year, but not a serious threat in May. The reason for that was obvious-- they couldn't stop anyone. They've got two of the five or six best scorers in the league in Amar'e and Melo. Each of those guys is... average at best on D. And Amar'e's also an indifferent rebounder (he'll put up the numbers there, but that's largely been just because over the course of a game someone will get boards, and the Knicks have been awful at center for a long time). Landry Fields is a nice piece (good defender, and probably the best rebounding 2 in the game) when he isn't asked to do too much on offense (and he's not in New York, with the two headliners dominating the ball on offense). Point guard is a question mark-- I never thought Chauncey Billups was the answer, but Iman Shumpert and Toney Douglas are both rotation players for me. If Baron Davis decides he wants to play ball this year and doesn't look like a beached whale on the court, I'm not entirely sure he can still turn it on anymore even if he wants to. But I think what makes the Knicks a contender is Chandler. He instantly takes a below-average defensive team and makes it potentially very good. Chandler protects the rim better than any center in the league not named Dwight Howard, is one of the best positional big men (if not THE best) in the game today, and is great at putting his perimeter guys into position. In short, he's just what the Knicks need on that end. Melo and Amar'e aren't the awful defenders some people like to paint them as, I think, but having a guy behind them who can erase their mistakes (Amar'e is a great athlete, but he's out of position frequently enough that guys like Boozer and David West, not to mention Zach Randolph, can eat him for lunch on the offensive end). With two guys who, on a given night, are capable of going off for 40, and a center who, if he stays healthy, changes the game defensively, this is a team that can be a threat. I also think they match up exceptionally well with the Heat-- Chandler made life hell for the Big Three in the Finals, and, while LeBron and DWade are terrific at closing down top scoring points and wings, neither of them, and especially not Bosh, can really match up with Stoudemire on that end. The Knicks' biggest problems are point guard and depth inside. The two bigs in their rotation after Chandler and Stoudemire are Jared Jeffries (ew) and Josh Harrellson (somehow even worse). That's BAD. They really need to shore that up to be a real contender. I also think they need at least a league-average point guard-- Douglas and Shumpert are solid combo/rotation types, but I don't think either is a starting point on a championship team. Beyond that, I think the East doesn't really have any more real contenders: the Celtics are too old, the Magic have Jameer Nelson and a bunch of garbage next to Dwight Howard, and the Hawks are a group of role players looking for a piece to build around.
In the West, I think the Thunder are the favorites. They've got a guy who I honestly think is already one of the league's greatest ever scorers in Kevin Durant (and he's getting better; today, he was finishing at the rim- scary). Russell Westbrook is dynamic off the dribble and a handful for any team (including his own when he's not in control). Serge Ibaka is an athletic shot-blocker who can hit the 18 footer. Kendrick Perkins gives them a big body who can battle inside and make life hard for traditional bigs. James Harden gives them offense off the bench, while Thabo Sefolosha and Eric Maynor are plus defenders. I think they're a complete squad, and they're another squad that matches up well with the Heat. The biggest challengers, for me, are another dark horse-- the Clippers. Lamar Odom or not, the Mavs just aren't good enough defensively without Chandler, while the Lakers, without Odom and with Kobe aging, don't have the depth to compete anymore. The Spurs aren't getting any younger, and the Nuggets don't have a superstar (and half their squad is stuck in China). Which leaves the Clips. To me, this is the most intriguing roster in the league. Chris Paul, if he's health, is the best point in the league (yes, better than Rose). No one can contain him off the dribble, and he makes guys around him better in a way that no other point in the league does (for me only Deron Williams comes close). Blake Griffin is an exciting talent who's a top-5 athlete in the league (though, watching him, it really doesn't look like he's taken his game to the next level; he still can't hit the 15 footer with any consistency, doesn't have a go-to post move, and doesn't look comfortable off the dribble if he can't jump over the guy manning him) who should look even better running the pick-and-roll with Paul and catching his alley-oops. DeAndre Jordan is a terrific shot blocker who makes life hard on driving wings (though he's a horrible free throw shooter). The rest of the roster is bizarrely constructed, though, which is what makes this such an intriguing squad. If Caron Butler is back and healthy, he's a solid wing scorer who can defend most 2/3s, while Ryan Gomes is a big body. But the quality depth is almost entirely at one position: the point. Mo Williams is an above-average starting point on a good team, but at 6-1, he can't guard the 2, and you can't really play him and the 6-0 Paul together without giving up a whole lot of size defensively, so I have a hard time imagining him giving them more than 15 quality minutes a night. Then, if that's not enough, they've also got a promising backup point prospect in Eric Bledsoe (who's injured right now) AND a good vet (who I think is best used as a backup) in Chauncey Billups. Not to mention Randy Foye is still on the roster. Which, by my count, gives the Clips four point guards... zero of whom can guard the 2. All of which makes me interested to see what their rotation looks like.
Either way, I'm excited to see how this season unwinds. Shortened or not, it's gonna be a great season.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Biggest Move in the NBA this Offseason
After playing what were, in my view, the most entertaining playoffs in at least 15 years, the NBA almost locked itself out of a season. Luckily, the league is back, and, with the offseason shortened, player movement has to happen in a hurry. There have been plenty of minor developments already-- Ronny Turiaf joined the Wizards, half of the Nuggets rotation is stuck in China, and the Nuggets snatched Rudy Fernandez and Ronnie Brewer. Also the Lakers signed Josh McRoberts, but no one cares. There have also been some bigger stories that I should mention, but which don't really change the title or playoff races. Brandon Roy, one of my favorite players in the league, sadly had to retire because of his knee condition (read this great tribute to him over at Huffington Post). The Nuggets, in a big move for them, re-signed Nene. And the Lakers dumped Lamar Odom to the Mavs for a trade exception (a bizarre move from a personnel standpoint, but my guess is they're looking to dump salary so they can bring in someone like Dwight Howard, or maybe even resurrect the Chris Paul deal). But I'm not going to discuss those deals, or other potential deals, like Howard moving to the Lakers or the Nets (which would also definitely change the title picture) or David Stern vetoing the initial Paul deal (which I don't want to beat to death).
Instead, I want to focus on the Tyson Chandler trade to the Knicks. This one has surprisingly flown under the radar-- Knicks fans I've talked to think it helps, but only moderately. Others lament that the Knicks haven't really made a move for Paul or another elite point. But in all honesty, I think this is a HUGE pickup for the Knicks. It takes them from a 5-7 seed in the East that would struggle to win a playoff series to a legitimate contender to win the conference. Here's why. In my eyes, Chandler is a major impact player. For my money, the only center I'd take over him for this coming season is Dwight Howard (I count Pau Gasol as a power forward, but I think I'd take Chandler over him too). Now, the league is definitely probably as thin as it's ever been at the center spot. Howard is a bona fide superstar, but right now, he's the only one at the position. When I started watching the league, it was filled to the brim with top-notch pivots: Hakeem Olajuwon was an incredible low-post presence, David Robinson was great, Patrick Ewing was a legitimate superstar, Shaq was a beast, and even guys like Alonzo Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo and Rik Smits were terrific pivot men. Also, Gheorge Muresan.
But today, only Howard fits into that category. But Chandler, for me, was the most important piece of the Mavericks championship team last season besides Dirk Nowitzki. Chandler obviously isn't much of a scorer, and he does little more on offense but set screens, crash the offensive glass and throw down alley-oops (though that still places him squarely in the middle among the NBA's offensive centers). But where Chandler really changes the game is on defense. As a defensive center, Chandler is the complete package. He's the closest thing there is in the league right now to a guy who can stand up to Howard in the low post. He plugs the lane, stifling penetration. And, most importantly, he's always in position and a terrific communicator, which are traits that often go unnoticed (Javale McGee, for example, isn't a good defensive player right now; he blocks a lot of shots, but he gets the opportunities to do it in large part because he's chronically out of position. He also leaves his feet far too much looking for the big block.).
Chandler instantly changes the Knicks. Last season, when they were trotting out Ronny Turiaf, Timofey Mozgov, and occasionally Amar'e at center, they couldn't stop anyone. Sure, they could score-- everyone up and down the roster could shoot even at the start of the season, and adding Melo in the middle of the season gave them another superstar scorer to pair with Amar'e. But they won games mostly by outscoring their opponents. Amar'e is a terrific player, but he's never been more than an average defender (and even average is a recent development). Same with Melo (though he's shown glimpses when he's tried). Chauncey Billups, now in his mid-thirties, can't guard his own shadow. Only Landry Fields, out of the starting perimeter players, was better than average on D. And with only Turiaf (who tried hard, but wasn't scaring anyone) at center, when those guys got beat, there was no one to challenge shots at the basket.
Now add Chandler. Instantly, he changes the game. As a leader, he's one of the few guys who can demand effort from stars like Amar'e and Melo on the defensive end. And if those guys do get beat off the dribble, he can still change shots at the rim. He also provides a body to man up with the East's better post centers (Howard in particular, but even guys like Roy Hibbert and Joakim Noah have the ability to give the Knicks trouble defensively on their day), and a guy who will crash the glass relentlessly (something they didn't have when they often played Amar'e at the 5-- Amar'e isn't just 6-10, but he's also not the best rebounder at his size either). Like before, they'll need Amar'e and Melo to carry them offensively, but adding Chandler instantly makes them respectable on defense. And it gives them a bona fide chance in the East, I think.
Instead, I want to focus on the Tyson Chandler trade to the Knicks. This one has surprisingly flown under the radar-- Knicks fans I've talked to think it helps, but only moderately. Others lament that the Knicks haven't really made a move for Paul or another elite point. But in all honesty, I think this is a HUGE pickup for the Knicks. It takes them from a 5-7 seed in the East that would struggle to win a playoff series to a legitimate contender to win the conference. Here's why. In my eyes, Chandler is a major impact player. For my money, the only center I'd take over him for this coming season is Dwight Howard (I count Pau Gasol as a power forward, but I think I'd take Chandler over him too). Now, the league is definitely probably as thin as it's ever been at the center spot. Howard is a bona fide superstar, but right now, he's the only one at the position. When I started watching the league, it was filled to the brim with top-notch pivots: Hakeem Olajuwon was an incredible low-post presence, David Robinson was great, Patrick Ewing was a legitimate superstar, Shaq was a beast, and even guys like Alonzo Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo and Rik Smits were terrific pivot men. Also, Gheorge Muresan.
But today, only Howard fits into that category. But Chandler, for me, was the most important piece of the Mavericks championship team last season besides Dirk Nowitzki. Chandler obviously isn't much of a scorer, and he does little more on offense but set screens, crash the offensive glass and throw down alley-oops (though that still places him squarely in the middle among the NBA's offensive centers). But where Chandler really changes the game is on defense. As a defensive center, Chandler is the complete package. He's the closest thing there is in the league right now to a guy who can stand up to Howard in the low post. He plugs the lane, stifling penetration. And, most importantly, he's always in position and a terrific communicator, which are traits that often go unnoticed (Javale McGee, for example, isn't a good defensive player right now; he blocks a lot of shots, but he gets the opportunities to do it in large part because he's chronically out of position. He also leaves his feet far too much looking for the big block.).
Chandler instantly changes the Knicks. Last season, when they were trotting out Ronny Turiaf, Timofey Mozgov, and occasionally Amar'e at center, they couldn't stop anyone. Sure, they could score-- everyone up and down the roster could shoot even at the start of the season, and adding Melo in the middle of the season gave them another superstar scorer to pair with Amar'e. But they won games mostly by outscoring their opponents. Amar'e is a terrific player, but he's never been more than an average defender (and even average is a recent development). Same with Melo (though he's shown glimpses when he's tried). Chauncey Billups, now in his mid-thirties, can't guard his own shadow. Only Landry Fields, out of the starting perimeter players, was better than average on D. And with only Turiaf (who tried hard, but wasn't scaring anyone) at center, when those guys got beat, there was no one to challenge shots at the basket.
Now add Chandler. Instantly, he changes the game. As a leader, he's one of the few guys who can demand effort from stars like Amar'e and Melo on the defensive end. And if those guys do get beat off the dribble, he can still change shots at the rim. He also provides a body to man up with the East's better post centers (Howard in particular, but even guys like Roy Hibbert and Joakim Noah have the ability to give the Knicks trouble defensively on their day), and a guy who will crash the glass relentlessly (something they didn't have when they often played Amar'e at the 5-- Amar'e isn't just 6-10, but he's also not the best rebounder at his size either). Like before, they'll need Amar'e and Melo to carry them offensively, but adding Chandler instantly makes them respectable on defense. And it gives them a bona fide chance in the East, I think.
Saturday, July 9, 2011
What should the Wizards do?
So I wrote up a post recently about the NBA's free agent period, and I realized that I didn't even consider any of the guys available for my favorite team-- the Wizards. Which got me to thinking about why that was. Now, the Wiz were the third-worst team in the league last year. It's no secret that we suck. Which makes it interesting that I didn't see any of the available free agents as an improvement for the squad. Why is that? Well, I think to figure out what the Wiz lack, it's a good idea to figure out what they don't lack. Which calls for a breakdown by position.
PG: John Wall is our cornerstone and really the only un-tradeable asset. Which isn't to say that he's a finished product. He struggled quite a bit last season, turned the ball over way too much, and didn't make enough jump shots to keep defenses honest. That he didn't quite live up to a lot of fans' expectations, though, just speaks to how high the bar was set for him, and to the inevitable comparisons to his fellow #1-overall pick and rookie sensation Blake Griffin. Griffin ran away with the Rookie of the Year award (though it's worth pointing out that he's two years older than Wall). But that speaks both to his greater maturity, and to the fact that I think it's easier to adapt to the league as a power forward (especially for a physical freak like Griffin) than it is for a point guard tasked with running a team. Wall already might be the fastest player in the league going end to end with the ball. He's a very, very good distributor, and can get to the hoop almost at will. Sure, he shot barely 40% from the field and under 30% from three, but he averaged better than 16 points and 8 assists (better than reigning league MVP Derrick Rose as a rookie!), played solid D, and put in 100% effort despite the team around him being... pretty bad. And that's putting it nicely. But he's got everything you want physically and skill-wise: he's long, he's super-athletic, he's got a good attitude, and he can both score and create. I still think Wall is a cornerstone to build the team around, and if he develops a jumper, he'll be scary. And in second-round pick Shelvin Mack, I think we've got a guy who can run the point for 10-12 minutes a game in spot duty, knock down open jumpers, and run the team adequately. So I think we're pretty set at this spot, at least.
SG: This position needs an upgrade for the long run. Nick Young isn't as terrible as a lot of Wiz fans think-- I think he could develop into a poor man's Jamal Crawford who can give you 12 points a game off the bench. But he's not a good starting shooting guard. He's not a terrible shooter (44% from the field, 39% from three), but he must lead the league in long, off-balance 2-point shots (aka the worst shot in basketball). And if he's not scoring, he's not bringing anything to the table. He's a mediocre rebounder for an off-guard, he doesn't care about defense, he doesn't create shots for others, and he's not a good enough scorer to take over a game just on that end. He'll give you the occasional 35-point explosion, but also more than his fair share of 5/14 shooting nights. And he gets more turnovers than assists. Jordan Crawford is similar to Young-- he's a very high usage player (when Young went down, Crawford scored almost as much as Young), but, unlike Young, he was very inefficient (39% from the field, 24% from three; and he shot 4 threes a game!), and his rebounding wasn't much better. He's a bit more interested on defense, and he doesn't turn the ball over as much and can create a bit, but I think he's ideally a rotation player, too. So one of the two has to go, and we still need a starter. I suppose Josh Howard is worth mentioning here, and he was a borderline All-Star 5 years ago, but now he's a walking injury, and I don't think we'll get much out of him. If we suck again and get lucky in the lottery, I'd like to pick up Harrison Barnes or Jeremy Lamb to play this spot next year, since what we have won't cut it, and the guys who are available on the market are either older versions of what we already have (Jamal Crawford and Jason Richardson, kind of) or headcases that our young team doesn't need (JR Smith).
SF: Technically, both of our first-round picks this season can play this spot. I'm hopeful at least one of them pans out, so it won't be a concern going forward. Jan Vesely (the 6th overall pick) is probably ideally a 4-man, since he's 6-11 and doesn't have much of a jump shot. Vesely is 21 years old, but at this point, I think he's still a couple of years away from being a real contributor. I've only seen Vesely on YouTube and NBA Draft clips but, honestly, I wasn't very impressed. Vesely is obviously super-athletic. He's long, he runs the floor, and he can jump out of the gym. In terms of athleticism, the guy is a beast. The problem is, the rest of his game just doesn't impress me. On his YouTube clips, he struggles to catch routine entry passes into the post, which tells me that he might have small hands (a concern for a big), and he fumbles way too many passes for my liking (a problem if he's going to be flanking Wall on the break). His rebounding numbers also weren't very impressive in Europe, and his free throw shooting was horrific (under 50%). Defensively, he looked slow on his rotations, and was frequently off balance. He had the length and athleticism to recover in Europe, but if he makes those mistakes in the NBA, guys will blow right by him. Now, he's got a ton of upside, but I think he'll have to develop quite a bit, and won't play more than 15 minutes a game this coming season. Chris Singleton is, I think, more ready to contribute right now. Unlike Vesely, he doesn't have star potential, but he's got a very defined role. Singleton is pretty big for a 3 (6-8, 230), and while his offensive game is unrefined, he's a very good defender who's big enough to hold his own against most NBA 4's and quick enough to guard the 2 if need be. I think he could be a Shane Battier type of player if he develops a consistent spot-up jumper. At worst, he'll be a solid defensive stopper for us. I think, given that we won't be competing next year, no free agents make sense, since getting Vesely and Singleton playing time so they can develop is key. That's also why I think we should phase out Rashard Lewis. We took on Lewis essentially because Ernie Grunfeld was determined to dump Gilbert Arenas. Lewis used to be a very good scorer, but right now, Lewis is just not a useful player on a young team. He's a 6-10 spot up three-point shooter who doesn't do much else particularly well. Hopefully, we can turn him into a 10-minute a night veteran who will be happy to collect his paycheck and mentor the young guys...
PF: Vesely can also play here, but this is where we've got a few young projects (Trevor Booker, Kevin Seraphin) and Andray Blatche. Booker and Seraphin are undersized post players (6-8 and 6-9 respectively). Booker is very athletic, and might turn into a solid frontcourt backup, but I think what Seraphin brings to the table is 6 fouls. His game is completely undeveloped at this point. Honestly, it's so undeveloped I can't even tell what his upside is. The two of them might add up to one decent backup big, but I'd still rather have them on the team than Blatche. Blatche doesn't turn 25 until next month, so he's still technically a young guy, and he's got some impressive skills (6-11, athletic, good skills), but I want him off the roster as soon as possible. The guy just isn't a winner. Now, you can look at his numbers and think that Blatche is a good PF. He's improved them every year, and averaged almost 17 and 8 this past season. But, in his case, the numbers lie. Blatche spends half of every season slacking off, pouting, not caring on defense, and generally putting himself before the team. For the last 10 games, he'll average 22 and 10 and look like a potential star. That got him a contract extension, which he used to keep doing the same thing. So I'll say it now: if your starting power forward is Andray Blatche, you won't be a good team. I'm hoping we'll be able to trade him for a bag of potato chips and a juice box. Or if we can't do that, just cut him and see what we can do with Vesely, Booker and Seraphin rotating at the 4. Yes, we'll suck, but we suck anyway, and at least we won't have Blatche's corrosive attitude on the roster. Ideally, Vesely will develop into the PF of the future, but if not, I wouldn't mind drafting one in one of the next two years (Jared Sullinger might be around when we draft next year, and I think he'll be a solid starting 4 in the league). But the key here is dumping Blatche. This is also a spot where a free agent makes sense. Next to Wall, I think the ideal is a guy who plays like Kenyon Martin used to play when he was on the Nets with Jason Kidd-- a guy who defends, rebounds, and can get out on the break and run the floor. I guess if David Lee played some D, he would be the closest thing to that in the league right now.
C: Javale McGee is the starter here right now. It appears that Ernie loves him. McGee is pretty young (23), and he had a statistically decent season last year (10 points, 8 boards a game). His upside is obvious. He's long (7 feet), he's super athletic (everyone who watched knows he should have won the dunk contest last year), and he's a good help-side shot blocker. He is, however, far from a finished product. Offensively, his game consists of dunking. He has no post moves. He's not as good a rebounder as a guy his size should be. And, while he's good blocking shots on the help side, he's not a very good post defender. He doesn't have a strong base, he bites on too many pump fakes, and even in a league starved of good post scorers, the better centers handle him. If he gets a whole lot stronger, I've heard people compare him to Tyson Chandler, but I'm a lot higher on Chandler than I was on McGee. And if the rumor that Grunfeld rejected a straight-up McGee for the second overall pick offer is true, he should be fired (I would have traded McGee and the 6 for the 2...). But McGee has the upside to be a solid starting center in the league, so upgrading there isn't necessarily a priority. On the other hand, there have been rumors among Wizards fan that McGee is being shopped in a package for Dwight Howard. If true, that would be incredible. Howard isn't necessarily the best fit next to Wall-- Wall is built to run and Howard is more of a half-court player, even though he's probably the league's best physical specimen. If we could pull off a trade for Howard, it would transform the team instantly. Howard is only two years older than McGee, and a starting 5 of Wall, Harrison Barnes, Singleton, Vesely, and Howard would be downright scary, assuming Vesely and Singleton develop into solid starters. Of course, all that is idle speculation at this point, but if there's one player that could instantly transform the Wiz into a playoff team, it's Howard.
So, realistically, what are our prospects for the future? I think Wall is entrenched at the 1, Singleton is the future starter at the 3, hopefully Vesely will be the same at the 4, and, for now at least, McGee is our guy at center. One of Booker/Seraphin should be our top big off the bench, and one of Young/Crawford should be our first guard off the bench. For next season, this clearly isn't a playoff roster, so it'll probably be a trip back to the lottery. My hope is we get one of Barnes and Jeremy Lamb to fill the starting 2 spot long term, which makes for a roster that looks something like this 2-3 years from now.
PG: Wall (starter), Mack (backup)
SG: Barnes/Lamb (starter), Young/Crawford (backup)
SF: Singleton/Vesely (starter), Singleton/Vesely (backup
PF: Vesely/FA signing (starter), Booker/Seraphin (backup)
C: McGee/maybe Dwight Howard...? (starter), Booker/Seraphin (backup)
So I think we're still 2 or 3 pieces away, but for the first time in about 5 years, I've got some hope that we're building a future playoff contender.
PG: John Wall is our cornerstone and really the only un-tradeable asset. Which isn't to say that he's a finished product. He struggled quite a bit last season, turned the ball over way too much, and didn't make enough jump shots to keep defenses honest. That he didn't quite live up to a lot of fans' expectations, though, just speaks to how high the bar was set for him, and to the inevitable comparisons to his fellow #1-overall pick and rookie sensation Blake Griffin. Griffin ran away with the Rookie of the Year award (though it's worth pointing out that he's two years older than Wall). But that speaks both to his greater maturity, and to the fact that I think it's easier to adapt to the league as a power forward (especially for a physical freak like Griffin) than it is for a point guard tasked with running a team. Wall already might be the fastest player in the league going end to end with the ball. He's a very, very good distributor, and can get to the hoop almost at will. Sure, he shot barely 40% from the field and under 30% from three, but he averaged better than 16 points and 8 assists (better than reigning league MVP Derrick Rose as a rookie!), played solid D, and put in 100% effort despite the team around him being... pretty bad. And that's putting it nicely. But he's got everything you want physically and skill-wise: he's long, he's super-athletic, he's got a good attitude, and he can both score and create. I still think Wall is a cornerstone to build the team around, and if he develops a jumper, he'll be scary. And in second-round pick Shelvin Mack, I think we've got a guy who can run the point for 10-12 minutes a game in spot duty, knock down open jumpers, and run the team adequately. So I think we're pretty set at this spot, at least.
SG: This position needs an upgrade for the long run. Nick Young isn't as terrible as a lot of Wiz fans think-- I think he could develop into a poor man's Jamal Crawford who can give you 12 points a game off the bench. But he's not a good starting shooting guard. He's not a terrible shooter (44% from the field, 39% from three), but he must lead the league in long, off-balance 2-point shots (aka the worst shot in basketball). And if he's not scoring, he's not bringing anything to the table. He's a mediocre rebounder for an off-guard, he doesn't care about defense, he doesn't create shots for others, and he's not a good enough scorer to take over a game just on that end. He'll give you the occasional 35-point explosion, but also more than his fair share of 5/14 shooting nights. And he gets more turnovers than assists. Jordan Crawford is similar to Young-- he's a very high usage player (when Young went down, Crawford scored almost as much as Young), but, unlike Young, he was very inefficient (39% from the field, 24% from three; and he shot 4 threes a game!), and his rebounding wasn't much better. He's a bit more interested on defense, and he doesn't turn the ball over as much and can create a bit, but I think he's ideally a rotation player, too. So one of the two has to go, and we still need a starter. I suppose Josh Howard is worth mentioning here, and he was a borderline All-Star 5 years ago, but now he's a walking injury, and I don't think we'll get much out of him. If we suck again and get lucky in the lottery, I'd like to pick up Harrison Barnes or Jeremy Lamb to play this spot next year, since what we have won't cut it, and the guys who are available on the market are either older versions of what we already have (Jamal Crawford and Jason Richardson, kind of) or headcases that our young team doesn't need (JR Smith).
SF: Technically, both of our first-round picks this season can play this spot. I'm hopeful at least one of them pans out, so it won't be a concern going forward. Jan Vesely (the 6th overall pick) is probably ideally a 4-man, since he's 6-11 and doesn't have much of a jump shot. Vesely is 21 years old, but at this point, I think he's still a couple of years away from being a real contributor. I've only seen Vesely on YouTube and NBA Draft clips but, honestly, I wasn't very impressed. Vesely is obviously super-athletic. He's long, he runs the floor, and he can jump out of the gym. In terms of athleticism, the guy is a beast. The problem is, the rest of his game just doesn't impress me. On his YouTube clips, he struggles to catch routine entry passes into the post, which tells me that he might have small hands (a concern for a big), and he fumbles way too many passes for my liking (a problem if he's going to be flanking Wall on the break). His rebounding numbers also weren't very impressive in Europe, and his free throw shooting was horrific (under 50%). Defensively, he looked slow on his rotations, and was frequently off balance. He had the length and athleticism to recover in Europe, but if he makes those mistakes in the NBA, guys will blow right by him. Now, he's got a ton of upside, but I think he'll have to develop quite a bit, and won't play more than 15 minutes a game this coming season. Chris Singleton is, I think, more ready to contribute right now. Unlike Vesely, he doesn't have star potential, but he's got a very defined role. Singleton is pretty big for a 3 (6-8, 230), and while his offensive game is unrefined, he's a very good defender who's big enough to hold his own against most NBA 4's and quick enough to guard the 2 if need be. I think he could be a Shane Battier type of player if he develops a consistent spot-up jumper. At worst, he'll be a solid defensive stopper for us. I think, given that we won't be competing next year, no free agents make sense, since getting Vesely and Singleton playing time so they can develop is key. That's also why I think we should phase out Rashard Lewis. We took on Lewis essentially because Ernie Grunfeld was determined to dump Gilbert Arenas. Lewis used to be a very good scorer, but right now, Lewis is just not a useful player on a young team. He's a 6-10 spot up three-point shooter who doesn't do much else particularly well. Hopefully, we can turn him into a 10-minute a night veteran who will be happy to collect his paycheck and mentor the young guys...
PF: Vesely can also play here, but this is where we've got a few young projects (Trevor Booker, Kevin Seraphin) and Andray Blatche. Booker and Seraphin are undersized post players (6-8 and 6-9 respectively). Booker is very athletic, and might turn into a solid frontcourt backup, but I think what Seraphin brings to the table is 6 fouls. His game is completely undeveloped at this point. Honestly, it's so undeveloped I can't even tell what his upside is. The two of them might add up to one decent backup big, but I'd still rather have them on the team than Blatche. Blatche doesn't turn 25 until next month, so he's still technically a young guy, and he's got some impressive skills (6-11, athletic, good skills), but I want him off the roster as soon as possible. The guy just isn't a winner. Now, you can look at his numbers and think that Blatche is a good PF. He's improved them every year, and averaged almost 17 and 8 this past season. But, in his case, the numbers lie. Blatche spends half of every season slacking off, pouting, not caring on defense, and generally putting himself before the team. For the last 10 games, he'll average 22 and 10 and look like a potential star. That got him a contract extension, which he used to keep doing the same thing. So I'll say it now: if your starting power forward is Andray Blatche, you won't be a good team. I'm hoping we'll be able to trade him for a bag of potato chips and a juice box. Or if we can't do that, just cut him and see what we can do with Vesely, Booker and Seraphin rotating at the 4. Yes, we'll suck, but we suck anyway, and at least we won't have Blatche's corrosive attitude on the roster. Ideally, Vesely will develop into the PF of the future, but if not, I wouldn't mind drafting one in one of the next two years (Jared Sullinger might be around when we draft next year, and I think he'll be a solid starting 4 in the league). But the key here is dumping Blatche. This is also a spot where a free agent makes sense. Next to Wall, I think the ideal is a guy who plays like Kenyon Martin used to play when he was on the Nets with Jason Kidd-- a guy who defends, rebounds, and can get out on the break and run the floor. I guess if David Lee played some D, he would be the closest thing to that in the league right now.
C: Javale McGee is the starter here right now. It appears that Ernie loves him. McGee is pretty young (23), and he had a statistically decent season last year (10 points, 8 boards a game). His upside is obvious. He's long (7 feet), he's super athletic (everyone who watched knows he should have won the dunk contest last year), and he's a good help-side shot blocker. He is, however, far from a finished product. Offensively, his game consists of dunking. He has no post moves. He's not as good a rebounder as a guy his size should be. And, while he's good blocking shots on the help side, he's not a very good post defender. He doesn't have a strong base, he bites on too many pump fakes, and even in a league starved of good post scorers, the better centers handle him. If he gets a whole lot stronger, I've heard people compare him to Tyson Chandler, but I'm a lot higher on Chandler than I was on McGee. And if the rumor that Grunfeld rejected a straight-up McGee for the second overall pick offer is true, he should be fired (I would have traded McGee and the 6 for the 2...). But McGee has the upside to be a solid starting center in the league, so upgrading there isn't necessarily a priority. On the other hand, there have been rumors among Wizards fan that McGee is being shopped in a package for Dwight Howard. If true, that would be incredible. Howard isn't necessarily the best fit next to Wall-- Wall is built to run and Howard is more of a half-court player, even though he's probably the league's best physical specimen. If we could pull off a trade for Howard, it would transform the team instantly. Howard is only two years older than McGee, and a starting 5 of Wall, Harrison Barnes, Singleton, Vesely, and Howard would be downright scary, assuming Vesely and Singleton develop into solid starters. Of course, all that is idle speculation at this point, but if there's one player that could instantly transform the Wiz into a playoff team, it's Howard.
So, realistically, what are our prospects for the future? I think Wall is entrenched at the 1, Singleton is the future starter at the 3, hopefully Vesely will be the same at the 4, and, for now at least, McGee is our guy at center. One of Booker/Seraphin should be our top big off the bench, and one of Young/Crawford should be our first guard off the bench. For next season, this clearly isn't a playoff roster, so it'll probably be a trip back to the lottery. My hope is we get one of Barnes and Jeremy Lamb to fill the starting 2 spot long term, which makes for a roster that looks something like this 2-3 years from now.
PG: Wall (starter), Mack (backup)
SG: Barnes/Lamb (starter), Young/Crawford (backup)
SF: Singleton/Vesely (starter), Singleton/Vesely (backup
PF: Vesely/FA signing (starter), Booker/Seraphin (backup)
C: McGee/maybe Dwight Howard...? (starter), Booker/Seraphin (backup)
So I think we're still 2 or 3 pieces away, but for the first time in about 5 years, I've got some hope that we're building a future playoff contender.
Friday, July 8, 2011
NBA Free Agency- who should go where?
Everyone knows the NBA is locked out. But I'm still in denial. I don't really want to think about the possibility that I'll have to spend my winter studying without an NBA game streaming on the computer, so I'm going to pretend that, come the end of October, the NBA will be tipping off like it always does. In that vein, SI's Chris Mannix released his list of the top-20 free agents this offseason. I'm not going to go down his entire list because I don't think anyone besides Big Baby's Mom cares where Big Baby will be next year. Because I'm snatching Mannix's list, I'll honor his rankings. Also, I'm too lazy to look up the specific salary cap situation for each team, so I'm looking strictly at who would be a good fit in terms of needs and playing style (with common sense exceptions, obviously; I'm trying to keep it plausible...). With those rules of thumb, here's Mannix's list:
Mannix's List
And my thoughts:
1. Nene (Denver, UFA)-- I like Nene. It feels like he's been around forever, and that he's spent half of his career out with busted knees. Both of which are, to some degree, true. But, quietly, I tend to forget that 1) he's 28, and 2) he hasn't missed more than 7 games the last 3 years. In that time, he's turned into a borderline All-Star who can put up almost 15 and 8, shoot a high percentage, and protect the hoop a little bit (though he'll stilll get run over by Dwight Howard). I like Nene on a squad that can get out and run-- he's good in transition and can finish on the break. And while adding Melo and Chauncey Billups was a baffling move for this style, so long as Mike D'Antoni coaches the Knicks, they will run. Adding Nene would give them not just another big who can finish on the break-- it also allows them to move Amare to his natural "4" spot, and also a guy who plays defense to allow them to put up a fight in the playoffs. My pick: Knicks
2. Marc Gasol (Memphis, RFA)-- Four years ago, Marc Gasol was Pau's fatter, less athletic, less polished, arguably uglier little brother. He was also poorer and their parents probably loved him less. Four years later, we can officially say it: Marc is a beast. And, at 26 years old, I think he's a more valuable commodity than Nene. At this point, Pau is still a better player. But, if I were a GM, I would take Marc over Pau when building my team. While his regular season numbers dipped a bit this past season (torpedoing my fantasy team), Gasol was huge in the playoffs. In the playoffs, he put up 15 and 11, and averaged almost two blocks a game during the regular season. His passing and shotblocking perfectly complemented Zach Randolph's low-post scoring for the Grizzlies. And the Grizzlies are, without a doubt, on the rise. They shocked the Spurs in the playoffs, and took the Thunder to 7 games in the second round. And they did it without arguably their best all-around player in Rudy Gay. Any team would love to have Gasol, but at this point, with Zach Randolph still very much in his prime at 30, the Grizz's window of opportunity is just opening. They need to keep Gasol to be legit contenders. He'll definitely want a raise, but, given his restricted status, I think he will (and should) stay with Memphis. My pick: Grizzlies.
3. David West (New Orleans, UFA)-- I'm not as high on David West as maybe his numbers suggest I should be. West is a good low-post scorer with smooth footwork and a consistent jump shot out to about 18 feet. Those are the positives. On the downside, West is, at 6-9, undersized. He's not a great rebounder for a "4" (he's never averaged 9 boards a game), he's not young (30; I know I said Randolph was in his prime at 30, but Randolph doesn't have the injury history, is on an established team, and is way more talented), he's coming off a season-ending injury, and his numbers may have been inflated from playing with Chris Paul. The fact that West walked away from a $7.5 million option for next season to test the free agency waters suggests that he wants to get paid. Unfortunately, I don't see any natural candidates to sign him among the league's playoff contenders. I don't think he'd mesh well with Dwight Howard in Orlando (neither is a great passer), he's not an up-tempo player, and teams like San Antonio and Chicago that do play a style that suits him either have similar players already (Boozer in Chicago) or don't sign big-ticket free agents (San Antonio). I think his best bet is to swallow his pride, re-up short term with New Orleans, prove he's recovered from his injury, and see what Chris Paul does before signing his last contract. I doubt that'll happen, since it looks like he wants to get paid now, and he might end up with whatever lower-tier team will overpay for him, but this is about what I think he should do, not what he will do. My pick: Hornets.
4. Tyson Chandler (Dallas, UFA)-- I love Tyson Chandler. He proved that, on the right team, he's an indispensable piece. Heck, I think that, besides Dirk, he was the Mavs' best, most indispensable player this past season. His offensive game is still limited to alley-oops and putbacks, but he protects the hoop, is a great helpside shot blocker, is one of the few big men who can compete with Dwight Howard physically, is active on the offensive glass, and sets screens. The key to Chandler, though, is putting him in the right situation. Since he's not going to create his own shot, he has to be on a team that has enough firepower that you're not counting on him to score. And he's at his best in the half-court rather than on the break. He'd be a perfect fit for a team like Miami, but unless he wants to take a massive pay cut at age 28, that's a no-go. The other natural destination for him, I think, is Boston. Rajon Rondo is exactly the kind of playmaking point Chandler thrives with, and KG plays further from the hoop than Chandler does on both ends of the floor. I think he's the perfect replacement for Kendrick Perkins (whose trade was awful for the C's). But Boston's core is aging-- KG, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce are all on the downside. Of course, you could say the same thing about Dallas's-- Dirk is at the tail end of his prime, Jason Terry is in his mid-thirties, and Jason Kidd is ancient. I think it's a toss-up between the two, but I think at this point, I think Boston is actually a better fit. Chandler is still in his prime, and the C's may have one more year in their championship window. Crucially, once Dirk retires (or declines), Dallas will have to overhaul its team, while Rajon Rondo's presence in Boston means the Celtics will have a better foundation to build on. So, going forward, Boston is the choice. My pick: Celtics.
5. Thaddeus Young (Philadelphia, RFA)-- He's restricted and he's a perfect fit in Philly until (unless?) Evan Turner emerges as a legit player. He would be wise to re-up, and I think he will. My pick: Sixers.
6. Jason Richardson (Orlando, UFA)-- Richardson is a decent jump-shooter who can be a role player for a contender. But he's 30, so I don't think his window's too big. If I thought Chicago were one piece away from contending, I'd say he should go there, but I think by the time they turn the corner, Richardson will be well into an even steeper decline. I like him to re-up with the Magic to play sidekick to Dwight Howard for another year. My pick: Magic.
9. J.R. Smith (Denver, UFA)-- J.R. Smith is an intriguing player. He's SUPER athletic, isn't a bad rebounder for a shooting guard, and is only 25. On the downside, he hasn't really cared on D in the past (though there were some promising signs once Melo left town), and his attitude has occasionally been a concern. But I think, as a supporting piece on a winner, Smith could be a good fit. I like him in Chicago, where the Bulls just didn't have the firepower to compete with Miami last year. I don't know if Smith will push them past the Heat, and Smith's indifference to defense in the past is a bit of a concern, but I think he's a young piece that gives them extra firepower and another young piece to grow alongside Rose, Noah and Deng. I think he could even be at his best in a Jamal Crawford-type scorer off the bench role, though he's probably a better all-around player (but not as gifted a scorer) as Crawford. My pick: Bulls.
10. Grant Hill (Phoenix, UFA)-- I've got a soft spot for Grant Hill. Yeah, he's 100 years old, but you've gotta love a guy who was a top-5 player in his prime, missed a half-decade of his career, but had the guts to come back and become a solid role player. I want to see Hill get a ring, and it's not going to happen in Phoenix. But he is a perfect leader and 7th man for a contender. Miami is looking for those kinds of players, but Hill, who, in his prime, was the closest thing to LeBron before LeBron himself came along, has a very similar skill set to James. I think I like him on the Spurs- their slow-down game suits his style at this point, and they may have one more run in them, just like Hill, and where he's a much better fit than Richard Jefferson. If not, I guess Atlanta would also make sense. But I'm sticking with San Antonio. My pick: Spurs.
11. Tayshaun Prince (Detroit, UFA)-- Prince is a bad fit on bad teams. He's not a dominant player or a leader, and, at 31, he's too old to grow with a young, rebuilding outfit like the Pistons. But he's still a decent scorer, a terrific defender, and would be a valuable piece for a contender. LA would be a natural fit, but they've got Ron Artest and Lamar Odom already. I actually like him in Atlanta, where he slots in effortlessly at the 3, and gives them a scary frontline with Josh Smith and Al Horford. My pick: Hawks.
12. Jamal Crawford (Atlanta, UFA)-- Crawford is a scoring machine. He can shoot the ball, he's fearless going to the hoop, and my friend Matt Allen thinks he's a top-5 shooting guard of all time. OK, not really, but he's definitely got more love for Crawford than anyone I know. Crawford's flaws are obvious. He's 31, he was significantly worse last year than he was the year before, when he was Sixth Man of the Year, and he doesn't play defense. I think if JR Smith doesn't go to Chicago, Crawford may even be a better fit right now. Problem is, I think by the time they're a contender (in two years), I think Crawford will be more or less finished as a contributor for a contending team. To me, he's perfect where he is: as a scorer off the bench for a team that's pretty good but doesn't have a lot of firepower as is. Another thought was Portland, but the problem there is Brandon Roy. If Roy's injuries mean he's done as an elite player, Crawford would be a perfect sixth-man/backup to Wesley Matthews. If not, he'd get lost in the shuffle. Since I don't want to bet against BRoy, I'll give him to Atlanta. My pick: Hawks.
13/14. Wilson Chandler and Jeff Green (Denver and Boston, RFA)-- I'm lumping these two together because they're so similar. They're both 24, they're both 6-8/6-9, they can both play multiple positions but don't have one that's defined, and they're both decent scorers and so-so rebounders for their size. Green turned out to be a terrible fit in Boston: they gave up their center who protected the hoop for a young guy who occupies the same part of the floor as KG. If KG only has another year left, Green could become a decent fit as Boston retools. If not, he's a square peg in a round hole. I actually think he's a good fit in Houston, where he can slot in between Kevin Martin and Luis Scola, and shuffle between the 3 and 4, with some combination of Pat Patterson and maybe even Jordan Hill providing spot minutes in the frontcourt. Chandler is similar, but he's a better shooter and is better in transition than Green. I think a young team that likes to run is the best bet for him. To me, that team is Sacramento, where he is perfect in a lineup with Jimmer at the point, Tyreke Evans at the 2, JJ Hickson at the 4, and DeMarcus Cousins at the 5 (now if they could only get some veteran leadership...). My picks: Green- Rockets; Chandler- Kings.
15. Aaron Brooks (Phoenix, RFA)-- I don't love Brooks's game. He's a score-first point with a so-so attitude. I think he's best in a place where he doesn't have playmaking responsibilities, or where the squad is built around him. Now that Steve Nash is at the tail end of his career, Phoenix could be that place. Brooks didn't play great after he got traded there last season, but he was also injured for much of that time and was adjusting to a new team. If Brooks wanted to win a ring, I would suggest the Lakers, but with Kobe, Gasol, and Bynum all on that team, and Artest already grumbling about not getting enough shots, I can't see him being happy there. My pick: Suns.
16. JJ Barea (Dallas, UFA)-- Barea proved this year that he can be an important piece on a championship team. Unfortunately, I think he's gone from vastly underrated to very overrated. Yes, he's a nice player... but he's a last piece that puts you over the top, not a building block. Barea is great as a sparkplug for a team that needs a shot of energy. I think Dallas, with Kidd on his last legs and Dirk probably headed to the endgame of his career, isn't that team anymore. I think Barea's a perfect fit playing the Dallas role with the Lakers. My pick: Lakers.
17. Shane Battier (Memphis, UFA)-- Battier is a very good defender, but on offense, he's a spot-up shooter. Memphis was a good fit for him, but with Rudy Gay coming back, I don't think there's a spot for him there now. I think the ideal is for him to go to a team with a playmaking point on offense that's committed to team defense. I think he's a perfect fit in NJ, where Deron Williams and Battier would make a perfect duo to lure Dwight Howard north (provided they can dump Brook Lopez). My pick: Nets.
18. Caron Butler (Dallas, UFA)-- Butler is 31, and coming off a torn ACL. But if he comes back healthy, he's a terrific wing who can score, rebound reasonably well, and defend. I don't think he really has a place in Dallas anymore, but I think he'd be a good veteran presence to put next to Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson in Cleveland, both personality-wise, and to take pressure off of them as they grow into their roles. My pick: Cavs.
So these are the free agents that I think will be at least somewhat relevant over the next few years.
Mannix's List
And my thoughts:
1. Nene (Denver, UFA)-- I like Nene. It feels like he's been around forever, and that he's spent half of his career out with busted knees. Both of which are, to some degree, true. But, quietly, I tend to forget that 1) he's 28, and 2) he hasn't missed more than 7 games the last 3 years. In that time, he's turned into a borderline All-Star who can put up almost 15 and 8, shoot a high percentage, and protect the hoop a little bit (though he'll stilll get run over by Dwight Howard). I like Nene on a squad that can get out and run-- he's good in transition and can finish on the break. And while adding Melo and Chauncey Billups was a baffling move for this style, so long as Mike D'Antoni coaches the Knicks, they will run. Adding Nene would give them not just another big who can finish on the break-- it also allows them to move Amare to his natural "4" spot, and also a guy who plays defense to allow them to put up a fight in the playoffs. My pick: Knicks
2. Marc Gasol (Memphis, RFA)-- Four years ago, Marc Gasol was Pau's fatter, less athletic, less polished, arguably uglier little brother. He was also poorer and their parents probably loved him less. Four years later, we can officially say it: Marc is a beast. And, at 26 years old, I think he's a more valuable commodity than Nene. At this point, Pau is still a better player. But, if I were a GM, I would take Marc over Pau when building my team. While his regular season numbers dipped a bit this past season (torpedoing my fantasy team), Gasol was huge in the playoffs. In the playoffs, he put up 15 and 11, and averaged almost two blocks a game during the regular season. His passing and shotblocking perfectly complemented Zach Randolph's low-post scoring for the Grizzlies. And the Grizzlies are, without a doubt, on the rise. They shocked the Spurs in the playoffs, and took the Thunder to 7 games in the second round. And they did it without arguably their best all-around player in Rudy Gay. Any team would love to have Gasol, but at this point, with Zach Randolph still very much in his prime at 30, the Grizz's window of opportunity is just opening. They need to keep Gasol to be legit contenders. He'll definitely want a raise, but, given his restricted status, I think he will (and should) stay with Memphis. My pick: Grizzlies.
3. David West (New Orleans, UFA)-- I'm not as high on David West as maybe his numbers suggest I should be. West is a good low-post scorer with smooth footwork and a consistent jump shot out to about 18 feet. Those are the positives. On the downside, West is, at 6-9, undersized. He's not a great rebounder for a "4" (he's never averaged 9 boards a game), he's not young (30; I know I said Randolph was in his prime at 30, but Randolph doesn't have the injury history, is on an established team, and is way more talented), he's coming off a season-ending injury, and his numbers may have been inflated from playing with Chris Paul. The fact that West walked away from a $7.5 million option for next season to test the free agency waters suggests that he wants to get paid. Unfortunately, I don't see any natural candidates to sign him among the league's playoff contenders. I don't think he'd mesh well with Dwight Howard in Orlando (neither is a great passer), he's not an up-tempo player, and teams like San Antonio and Chicago that do play a style that suits him either have similar players already (Boozer in Chicago) or don't sign big-ticket free agents (San Antonio). I think his best bet is to swallow his pride, re-up short term with New Orleans, prove he's recovered from his injury, and see what Chris Paul does before signing his last contract. I doubt that'll happen, since it looks like he wants to get paid now, and he might end up with whatever lower-tier team will overpay for him, but this is about what I think he should do, not what he will do. My pick: Hornets.
4. Tyson Chandler (Dallas, UFA)-- I love Tyson Chandler. He proved that, on the right team, he's an indispensable piece. Heck, I think that, besides Dirk, he was the Mavs' best, most indispensable player this past season. His offensive game is still limited to alley-oops and putbacks, but he protects the hoop, is a great helpside shot blocker, is one of the few big men who can compete with Dwight Howard physically, is active on the offensive glass, and sets screens. The key to Chandler, though, is putting him in the right situation. Since he's not going to create his own shot, he has to be on a team that has enough firepower that you're not counting on him to score. And he's at his best in the half-court rather than on the break. He'd be a perfect fit for a team like Miami, but unless he wants to take a massive pay cut at age 28, that's a no-go. The other natural destination for him, I think, is Boston. Rajon Rondo is exactly the kind of playmaking point Chandler thrives with, and KG plays further from the hoop than Chandler does on both ends of the floor. I think he's the perfect replacement for Kendrick Perkins (whose trade was awful for the C's). But Boston's core is aging-- KG, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce are all on the downside. Of course, you could say the same thing about Dallas's-- Dirk is at the tail end of his prime, Jason Terry is in his mid-thirties, and Jason Kidd is ancient. I think it's a toss-up between the two, but I think at this point, I think Boston is actually a better fit. Chandler is still in his prime, and the C's may have one more year in their championship window. Crucially, once Dirk retires (or declines), Dallas will have to overhaul its team, while Rajon Rondo's presence in Boston means the Celtics will have a better foundation to build on. So, going forward, Boston is the choice. My pick: Celtics.
5. Thaddeus Young (Philadelphia, RFA)-- He's restricted and he's a perfect fit in Philly until (unless?) Evan Turner emerges as a legit player. He would be wise to re-up, and I think he will. My pick: Sixers.
6. Jason Richardson (Orlando, UFA)-- Richardson is a decent jump-shooter who can be a role player for a contender. But he's 30, so I don't think his window's too big. If I thought Chicago were one piece away from contending, I'd say he should go there, but I think by the time they turn the corner, Richardson will be well into an even steeper decline. I like him to re-up with the Magic to play sidekick to Dwight Howard for another year. My pick: Magic.
9. J.R. Smith (Denver, UFA)-- J.R. Smith is an intriguing player. He's SUPER athletic, isn't a bad rebounder for a shooting guard, and is only 25. On the downside, he hasn't really cared on D in the past (though there were some promising signs once Melo left town), and his attitude has occasionally been a concern. But I think, as a supporting piece on a winner, Smith could be a good fit. I like him in Chicago, where the Bulls just didn't have the firepower to compete with Miami last year. I don't know if Smith will push them past the Heat, and Smith's indifference to defense in the past is a bit of a concern, but I think he's a young piece that gives them extra firepower and another young piece to grow alongside Rose, Noah and Deng. I think he could even be at his best in a Jamal Crawford-type scorer off the bench role, though he's probably a better all-around player (but not as gifted a scorer) as Crawford. My pick: Bulls.
10. Grant Hill (Phoenix, UFA)-- I've got a soft spot for Grant Hill. Yeah, he's 100 years old, but you've gotta love a guy who was a top-5 player in his prime, missed a half-decade of his career, but had the guts to come back and become a solid role player. I want to see Hill get a ring, and it's not going to happen in Phoenix. But he is a perfect leader and 7th man for a contender. Miami is looking for those kinds of players, but Hill, who, in his prime, was the closest thing to LeBron before LeBron himself came along, has a very similar skill set to James. I think I like him on the Spurs- their slow-down game suits his style at this point, and they may have one more run in them, just like Hill, and where he's a much better fit than Richard Jefferson. If not, I guess Atlanta would also make sense. But I'm sticking with San Antonio. My pick: Spurs.
11. Tayshaun Prince (Detroit, UFA)-- Prince is a bad fit on bad teams. He's not a dominant player or a leader, and, at 31, he's too old to grow with a young, rebuilding outfit like the Pistons. But he's still a decent scorer, a terrific defender, and would be a valuable piece for a contender. LA would be a natural fit, but they've got Ron Artest and Lamar Odom already. I actually like him in Atlanta, where he slots in effortlessly at the 3, and gives them a scary frontline with Josh Smith and Al Horford. My pick: Hawks.
12. Jamal Crawford (Atlanta, UFA)-- Crawford is a scoring machine. He can shoot the ball, he's fearless going to the hoop, and my friend Matt Allen thinks he's a top-5 shooting guard of all time. OK, not really, but he's definitely got more love for Crawford than anyone I know. Crawford's flaws are obvious. He's 31, he was significantly worse last year than he was the year before, when he was Sixth Man of the Year, and he doesn't play defense. I think if JR Smith doesn't go to Chicago, Crawford may even be a better fit right now. Problem is, I think by the time they're a contender (in two years), I think Crawford will be more or less finished as a contributor for a contending team. To me, he's perfect where he is: as a scorer off the bench for a team that's pretty good but doesn't have a lot of firepower as is. Another thought was Portland, but the problem there is Brandon Roy. If Roy's injuries mean he's done as an elite player, Crawford would be a perfect sixth-man/backup to Wesley Matthews. If not, he'd get lost in the shuffle. Since I don't want to bet against BRoy, I'll give him to Atlanta. My pick: Hawks.
13/14. Wilson Chandler and Jeff Green (Denver and Boston, RFA)-- I'm lumping these two together because they're so similar. They're both 24, they're both 6-8/6-9, they can both play multiple positions but don't have one that's defined, and they're both decent scorers and so-so rebounders for their size. Green turned out to be a terrible fit in Boston: they gave up their center who protected the hoop for a young guy who occupies the same part of the floor as KG. If KG only has another year left, Green could become a decent fit as Boston retools. If not, he's a square peg in a round hole. I actually think he's a good fit in Houston, where he can slot in between Kevin Martin and Luis Scola, and shuffle between the 3 and 4, with some combination of Pat Patterson and maybe even Jordan Hill providing spot minutes in the frontcourt. Chandler is similar, but he's a better shooter and is better in transition than Green. I think a young team that likes to run is the best bet for him. To me, that team is Sacramento, where he is perfect in a lineup with Jimmer at the point, Tyreke Evans at the 2, JJ Hickson at the 4, and DeMarcus Cousins at the 5 (now if they could only get some veteran leadership...). My picks: Green- Rockets; Chandler- Kings.
15. Aaron Brooks (Phoenix, RFA)-- I don't love Brooks's game. He's a score-first point with a so-so attitude. I think he's best in a place where he doesn't have playmaking responsibilities, or where the squad is built around him. Now that Steve Nash is at the tail end of his career, Phoenix could be that place. Brooks didn't play great after he got traded there last season, but he was also injured for much of that time and was adjusting to a new team. If Brooks wanted to win a ring, I would suggest the Lakers, but with Kobe, Gasol, and Bynum all on that team, and Artest already grumbling about not getting enough shots, I can't see him being happy there. My pick: Suns.
16. JJ Barea (Dallas, UFA)-- Barea proved this year that he can be an important piece on a championship team. Unfortunately, I think he's gone from vastly underrated to very overrated. Yes, he's a nice player... but he's a last piece that puts you over the top, not a building block. Barea is great as a sparkplug for a team that needs a shot of energy. I think Dallas, with Kidd on his last legs and Dirk probably headed to the endgame of his career, isn't that team anymore. I think Barea's a perfect fit playing the Dallas role with the Lakers. My pick: Lakers.
17. Shane Battier (Memphis, UFA)-- Battier is a very good defender, but on offense, he's a spot-up shooter. Memphis was a good fit for him, but with Rudy Gay coming back, I don't think there's a spot for him there now. I think the ideal is for him to go to a team with a playmaking point on offense that's committed to team defense. I think he's a perfect fit in NJ, where Deron Williams and Battier would make a perfect duo to lure Dwight Howard north (provided they can dump Brook Lopez). My pick: Nets.
18. Caron Butler (Dallas, UFA)-- Butler is 31, and coming off a torn ACL. But if he comes back healthy, he's a terrific wing who can score, rebound reasonably well, and defend. I don't think he really has a place in Dallas anymore, but I think he'd be a good veteran presence to put next to Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson in Cleveland, both personality-wise, and to take pressure off of them as they grow into their roles. My pick: Cavs.
So these are the free agents that I think will be at least somewhat relevant over the next few years.
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