NBA Free Agency- who should go where?

Everyone knows the NBA is locked out.  But I'm still in denial.  I don't really want to think about the possibility that I'll have to spend my winter studying without an NBA game streaming on the computer, so I'm going to pretend that, come the end of October, the NBA will be tipping off like it always does.  In that vein, SI's Chris Mannix released his list of the top-20 free agents this offseason.  I'm not going to go down his entire list because I don't think anyone besides Big Baby's Mom cares where Big Baby will be next year.  Because I'm snatching Mannix's list, I'll honor his rankings.  Also, I'm too lazy to look up the specific salary cap situation for each team, so I'm looking strictly at who would be a good fit in terms of needs and playing style (with common sense exceptions, obviously; I'm trying to keep it plausible...).  With those rules of thumb, here's Mannix's list:

Mannix's List

And my thoughts:

1. Nene (Denver, UFA)-- I like Nene.  It feels like he's been around forever, and that he's spent half of his career out with busted knees.  Both of which are, to some degree, true.  But, quietly, I tend to forget that 1) he's 28, and 2) he hasn't missed more than 7 games the last 3 years.  In that time, he's turned into a borderline All-Star who can put up almost 15 and 8, shoot a high percentage, and protect the hoop a little bit (though he'll stilll get run over by Dwight Howard).  I like Nene on a squad that can get out and run-- he's good in transition and can finish on the break.  And while adding Melo and Chauncey Billups was a baffling move for this style, so long as Mike D'Antoni coaches the Knicks, they will run.  Adding Nene would give them not just another big who can finish on the break-- it also allows them to move Amare to his natural "4" spot, and also a guy who plays defense to allow them to put up a fight in the playoffs.  My pick: Knicks

2. Marc Gasol (Memphis, RFA)-- Four years ago, Marc Gasol was Pau's fatter, less athletic, less polished, arguably uglier little brother.  He was also poorer and their parents probably loved him less.  Four years later, we can officially say it: Marc is a beast.  And, at 26 years old, I think he's a more valuable commodity than Nene.  At this point, Pau is still a better player.  But, if I were a GM, I would take Marc over Pau when building my team.  While his regular season numbers dipped a bit this past season (torpedoing my fantasy team), Gasol was huge in the playoffs.  In the playoffs, he put up 15 and 11, and averaged almost two blocks a game during the regular season.  His passing and shotblocking perfectly complemented Zach Randolph's low-post scoring for the Grizzlies.  And the Grizzlies are, without a doubt, on the rise.  They shocked the Spurs in the playoffs, and took the Thunder to 7 games in the second round.  And they did it without arguably their best all-around player in Rudy Gay.  Any team would love to have Gasol, but at this point, with Zach Randolph still very much in his prime at 30, the Grizz's window of opportunity is just opening.  They need to keep Gasol to be legit contenders.  He'll definitely want a raise, but, given his restricted status, I think he will (and should) stay with Memphis.  My pick: Grizzlies.

3. David West (New Orleans, UFA)-- I'm not as high on David West as maybe his numbers suggest I should be.  West is a good low-post scorer with smooth footwork and a consistent jump shot out to about 18 feet.  Those are the positives.  On the downside, West is, at 6-9, undersized.  He's not a great rebounder for a "4" (he's never averaged 9 boards a game), he's not young (30; I know I said Randolph was in his prime at 30, but Randolph doesn't have the injury history, is on an established team, and is way more talented), he's coming off a season-ending injury, and his numbers may have been inflated from playing with Chris Paul.  The fact that West walked away from a $7.5 million option for next season to test the free agency waters suggests that he wants to get paid.  Unfortunately, I don't see any natural candidates to sign him among the league's playoff contenders.  I don't think he'd mesh well with Dwight Howard in Orlando (neither is a great passer), he's not an up-tempo player, and teams like San Antonio and Chicago that do play a style that suits him either have similar players already (Boozer in Chicago) or don't sign big-ticket free agents (San Antonio).  I think his best bet is to swallow his pride, re-up short term with New Orleans, prove he's recovered from his injury, and see what Chris Paul does before signing his last contract.  I doubt that'll happen, since it looks like he wants to get paid now, and he might end up with whatever lower-tier team will overpay for him, but this is about what I think he should do, not what he will do.  My pick: Hornets.

4. Tyson Chandler (Dallas, UFA)-- I love Tyson Chandler.  He proved that, on the right team, he's an indispensable piece.  Heck, I think that, besides Dirk, he was the Mavs' best, most indispensable player this past season.  His offensive game is still limited to alley-oops and putbacks, but he protects the hoop, is a great helpside shot blocker, is one of the few big men who can compete with Dwight Howard physically, is active on the offensive glass, and sets screens.  The key to Chandler, though, is putting him in the right situation.  Since he's not going to create his own shot, he has to be on a team that has enough firepower that you're not counting on him to score.  And he's at his best in the half-court rather than on the break.  He'd be a perfect fit for a team like Miami, but unless he wants to take a massive pay cut at age 28, that's a no-go.  The other natural destination for him, I think, is Boston.  Rajon Rondo is exactly the kind of playmaking point Chandler thrives with, and KG plays further from the hoop than Chandler does on both ends of the floor.  I think he's the perfect replacement for Kendrick Perkins (whose trade was awful for the C's).  But Boston's core is aging-- KG, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce are all on the downside.  Of course, you could say the same thing about Dallas's-- Dirk is at the tail end of his prime, Jason Terry is in his mid-thirties, and Jason Kidd is ancient.  I think it's a toss-up between the two, but I think at this point, I think Boston is actually a better fit.  Chandler is still in his prime, and the C's may have one more year in their championship window.  Crucially, once Dirk retires (or declines), Dallas will have to overhaul its team, while Rajon Rondo's presence in Boston means the Celtics will have a better foundation to build on.  So, going forward, Boston is the choice.  My pick: Celtics.

5. Thaddeus Young (Philadelphia, RFA)-- He's restricted and he's a perfect fit in Philly until (unless?) Evan Turner emerges as a legit player.  He would be wise to re-up, and I think he will.  My pick: Sixers.

6. Jason Richardson (Orlando, UFA)-- Richardson is a decent jump-shooter who can be a role player for a contender.  But he's 30, so I don't think his window's too big.  If I thought Chicago were one piece away from contending, I'd say he should go there, but I think by the time they turn the corner, Richardson will be well into an even steeper decline.  I like him to re-up with the Magic to play sidekick to Dwight Howard for another year.  My pick: Magic.

9. J.R. Smith (Denver, UFA)-- J.R. Smith is an intriguing player.  He's SUPER athletic, isn't a bad rebounder for a shooting guard, and is only 25.  On the downside, he hasn't really cared on D in the past (though there were some promising signs once Melo left town), and his attitude has occasionally been a concern.  But I think, as a supporting piece on a winner, Smith could be a good fit.  I like him in Chicago, where the Bulls just didn't have the firepower to compete with Miami last year.  I don't know if Smith will push them past the Heat, and Smith's indifference to defense in the past is a bit of a concern, but I think he's a young piece that gives them extra firepower and another young piece to grow alongside Rose, Noah and Deng.  I think he could even be at his best in a Jamal Crawford-type scorer off the bench role, though he's probably a better all-around player (but not as gifted a scorer) as Crawford.  My pick: Bulls.

10. Grant Hill (Phoenix, UFA)-- I've got a soft spot for Grant Hill.  Yeah, he's 100 years old, but you've gotta love a guy who was a top-5 player in his prime, missed a half-decade of his career, but had the guts to come back and become a solid role player.  I want to see Hill get a ring, and it's not going to happen in Phoenix.  But he is a perfect leader and 7th man for a contender.  Miami is looking for those kinds of players, but Hill, who, in his prime, was the closest thing to LeBron before LeBron himself came along, has a very similar skill set to James.  I think I like him on the Spurs- their slow-down game suits his style at this point, and they may have one more run in them, just like Hill, and where he's a much better fit than Richard Jefferson.  If not, I guess Atlanta would also make sense.  But I'm sticking with San Antonio.  My pick: Spurs.

11. Tayshaun Prince (Detroit, UFA)-- Prince is a bad fit on bad teams.  He's not a dominant player or a leader, and, at 31, he's too old to grow with a young, rebuilding outfit like the Pistons.  But he's still a decent scorer, a terrific defender, and would be a valuable piece for a contender.  LA would be a natural fit, but they've got Ron Artest and Lamar Odom already.  I actually like him in Atlanta, where he slots in effortlessly at the 3, and gives them a scary frontline with Josh Smith and Al Horford.  My pick: Hawks.

12. Jamal Crawford (Atlanta, UFA)-- Crawford is a scoring machine.  He can shoot the ball, he's fearless going to the hoop, and my friend Matt Allen thinks he's a top-5 shooting guard of all time.  OK, not really, but he's definitely got more love for Crawford than anyone I know.  Crawford's flaws are obvious.  He's 31, he was significantly worse last year than he was the year before, when he was Sixth Man of the Year, and he doesn't play defense.  I think if JR Smith doesn't go to Chicago, Crawford may even be a better fit right now.  Problem is, I think by the time they're a contender (in two years), I think Crawford will be more or less finished as a contributor for a contending team.  To me, he's perfect where he is: as a scorer off the bench for a team that's pretty good but doesn't have a lot of firepower as is.  Another thought was Portland, but the problem there is Brandon Roy.  If Roy's injuries mean he's done as an elite player, Crawford would be a perfect sixth-man/backup to Wesley Matthews.  If not, he'd get lost in the shuffle.  Since I don't want to bet against BRoy, I'll give him to Atlanta.  My pick: Hawks.

13/14. Wilson Chandler and Jeff Green (Denver and Boston, RFA)-- I'm lumping these two together because they're so similar.  They're both 24, they're both 6-8/6-9, they can both play multiple positions but don't have one that's defined, and they're both decent scorers and so-so rebounders for their size.  Green turned out to be a terrible fit in Boston: they gave up their center who protected the hoop for a young guy who occupies the same part of the floor as KG.  If KG only has another year left, Green could become a decent fit as Boston retools.  If not, he's a square peg in a round hole.  I actually think he's a good fit in Houston, where he can slot in between Kevin Martin and Luis Scola, and shuffle between the 3 and 4, with some combination of Pat Patterson and maybe even Jordan Hill providing spot minutes in the frontcourt.  Chandler is similar, but he's a better shooter and is better in transition than Green.  I think a young team that likes to run is the best bet for him.  To me, that team is Sacramento, where he is perfect in a lineup with Jimmer at the point, Tyreke Evans at the 2, JJ Hickson at the 4, and DeMarcus Cousins at the 5 (now if they could only get some veteran leadership...).  My picks: Green- Rockets; Chandler- Kings.

15. Aaron Brooks (Phoenix, RFA)-- I don't love Brooks's game.  He's a score-first point with a so-so attitude.  I think he's best in a place where he doesn't have playmaking responsibilities, or where the squad is built around him.  Now that Steve Nash is at the tail end of his career, Phoenix could be that place.  Brooks didn't play great after he got traded there last season, but he was also injured for much of that time and was adjusting to a new team.  If Brooks wanted to win a ring, I would suggest the Lakers, but with Kobe, Gasol, and Bynum all on that team, and Artest already grumbling about not getting enough shots, I can't see him being happy there.  My pick: Suns.

16. JJ Barea (Dallas, UFA)-- Barea proved this year that he can be an important piece on a championship team.  Unfortunately, I think he's gone from vastly underrated to very overrated.  Yes, he's a nice player... but he's a last piece that puts you over the top, not a building block.  Barea is great as a sparkplug for a team that needs a shot of energy.  I think Dallas, with Kidd on his last legs and Dirk probably headed to the endgame of his career, isn't that team anymore.  I think Barea's a perfect fit playing the Dallas role with the Lakers.  My pick: Lakers.

17. Shane Battier (Memphis, UFA)-- Battier is a very good defender, but on offense, he's a spot-up shooter.  Memphis was a good fit for him, but with Rudy Gay coming back, I don't think there's a spot for him there now.  I think the ideal is for him to go to a team with a playmaking point on offense that's committed to team defense.  I think he's a perfect fit in NJ, where Deron Williams and Battier would make a perfect duo to lure Dwight Howard north (provided they can dump Brook Lopez).  My pick: Nets.

18. Caron Butler (Dallas, UFA)-- Butler is 31, and coming off a torn ACL.  But if he comes back healthy, he's a terrific wing who can score, rebound reasonably well, and defend.  I don't think he really has a place in Dallas anymore, but I think he'd be a good veteran presence to put next to Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson in Cleveland, both personality-wise, and to take pressure off of them as they grow into their roles.  My pick: Cavs.

So these are the free agents that I think will be at least somewhat relevant over the next few years.