General NBA
In my last post, I threw out my NBA thoughts for the year. It's definitely still too early to make some definitive calls, but there are a few developments from the first few games that I think are set to develop into season-long themes. There were a few teams I mentioned that I thought had aged their way out of contention. A few games in, some of those teams have surprised me, while others have had problems similar to the ones I've expected. In the East, I thought the Celtics were that team-- their core of Pierce, Allen and Garnett is old (34, 36 and 35, respectively), Rajon Rondo has been more of a distributor than a scorer, and the depth isn't good enough to let them coast to the playoffs. While everything related to the Celtics has to be taken with a grain of salt (Pierce still has yet to play this season, and all 3 games they've played have been on the road), they haven't exactly looked good so far. Today they got blown out by the Hornets (who aren't exactly an elite squad), and the Heat and Knicks both beat them (albeit in pretty close games). Though I only watched the first game, I think the biggest positive to take away is Rondo's improved jumper (he's knocked down 2 of 5 threes so far and shot over 50% from the field), while the most worrying part is that the depth, frankly, stinks. KG and Ray Allen, just like they have for a few years, look a tad slower and older, and the Celtics aren't going to be able to ride them through the season the way they've been able to in the past. Today, they only played 27 (Garnett) and 30 (Allen) minutes, but in each of the first two games, they averaged 35 and 39 minutes, respectively. For two guys in their mid-thirties, that's not a sustainable pace, especially in a compressed season.
And the problem isn't going to get any better. To get to the playoffs at full strength, they're going to need to have the big three pace themselves, and that'll be hard given that Allen and KG have been playing heavy minutes already, and they're still losing. Brandon Bass has been better than I've expected, but the rest of their supporting cast stinks. Jermaine O'Neal is way over the hill, Marquis Daniels is an 8-minute a game player for a championship team, Keyon Dooling is no good, and the less said about Chris Wilcox, the better. Even with Pierce back, these aren't guys I can see the Celtics riding into the playoffs. At this point, ideally, they need the big 3 to be hovering around 30 minutes most nights in order to get to the playoffs at full strength. I think they'll be good enough, with Pierce healthy, to get back to the playoffs, but, 3 games in, I still think this team isn't a contender.
In the West, there were three squads I thought were done as contenders-- the Spurs, the Mavs, and the Lakers. Two of those three have looked like decent predictions, while one has looked way off. I'll start with the first two. The Lakers haven't exactly looked like the same contender they have been the last few years. They blew out the Jazz at home the other night to improve to 1-2 (the Jazz stink), but they lost to the Bulls at home in the opener, and lost at Sacramento too (Sacramento is pretty talented, but definitely not a contender). But they've definitely had some trouble in these first few games. On the one hand, Kobe looks less old than he has the past few seasons, at least so far. He's not elevating the way he did in his twenties to get his jumper, but he's putting up 25-30 a night with ease. On the other hand, the rest of the squad is struggling. Pau Gasol is putting up numbers in line with what he's put up in the past-- 17 and 9 so far, compared to an average of around 19 and 10 in his Laker career. But, with Lamar Odom gone and Andrew Bynum out so far, they need bona fide #2 star numbers out of him, and 17 and 9 out of Gasol isn't getting it done. And the rest of the roster's been worse. Steve Blake is a nice backup point, but Derek Fisher is 37-- he's not a guy you want on the floor for heavy minutes against the Chris Pauls and Derrick Roses of the league. Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy have been getting 25+ minutes a game. For a championship team, they play 15-18 apiece. Probably less in Murphy's case. And Metta World Peace isn't young anymore either- at one point, he was a guy you could count on to slow down the best wings in the league. Now, at 32, I think he's a 25-30 minute a night guy. But, with the loss of Odom to Dallas, they need more out of Artest on the offensive end, and I don't think that's a good thing for this team. Devin Ebanks was a piece I really liked coming out of WVU, but I think at this point he's a young Trevor Ariza-- long and athletic, but with an unrefined offensive game. I think once Andrew Bynum gets back, this is still very much a solid playoff team-- a starting 5 of Fisher, Kobe, Ebanks, Gasol and Bynum, with World Peace, McRoberts, Blake, Murphy and Jason Kapono coming off the bench is still enough to make the playoffs. I think it's probably enough to win a playoff series too. But this is a team without a legit scoring option off the bench-- Artest was that once, but I don't think he is that anymore: he's not quick enough to beat his man off the dribble anymore, and he's not a guy who comes off screens and creates offense. Andrew Bynum has good hands-- he'll grab an offensive board and put it back, and occasionally he'll even make a move and score, but his post game is still pretty raw. The rest of the rotation... the less said the better. Right now, the Lakers are averaging 91 points a night. They've got three guys averaging double figures, and one of them is a 33 year old Kobe (and make no mistake-- he's an old 33; at 33, Jordan had been in the league for 11 years, and had taken time off to play baseball in the middle. Kobe's been in the league for 15 years now) averaging 28 a game. If you need Kobe to keep dropping 28 a night for your team to get to the playoffs, you're going to be in trouble once you get there. To stay a contender, I think they need Bynum to come back 100%, Gasol to step up his play, and probably another good scorer off the bench. But I can't really think of another guy who's as perfect a fit on this team as Odom. I think, as a contender, they're finished.
The Mavs are, I think, in even worse shape. I argued that the Lakers are done as a contender, but that's very debatable, and I think it's absurd to argue that they're not a playoff team. I see the Mavs struggling to make the playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki is still a star, but he's 33. Not as old a 33 as Kobe, but he's not young. He's struggled early this season, but I think he'll rebound and put up his usual 22-24 points a night. The rest of the team, though, is problematic. While they got through the playoffs without Caron Butler, having him there to take the load off of the Mavs older pieces during the season helped them peak in the playoffs. This year, they don't have Butler. Shawn Marion is a year older (also 33), Jason Kidd is on his last legs at 38 and, I think, shouldn't be playing more than 22 minutes a night or so, on average. Lamar Odom is a nice piece off the bench, but he still hasn't integrated himself into the squad. And Vince Carter is no longer the athletic scoring machine he was at 26 years old-- he's a going-on-35 jump shooter who still doesn't play D. Worst of all, without Tyson Chandler, they don't have the single piece to organize their defense and make them a decent defensive squad. And, with Chandler, Butler and JJ Barea gone, they don't have the depth to run teams off the floor anymore. Last year, they could afford to throw a defensive stopper (Deshawn Stevenson) out at the off-guard in the playoffs because Barea and Jason Terry could give them explosive offense off the bench, while Chandler gave them a constant rim protector at the 5. Now, they've got Brendan Haywood (who can spell Chandler for 10-15 minutes a night, but can't sniff his jock full time) at the 5, with Odom and Terry their only viable options off the bench. With Barea gone, Delonte West is Kidd's top backup (and West isn't much of a playmaker). And the rest of the problems fall into place after that. I actually think Barea is overrated at this point (he's a nice energy guy off the bench, but he's a liability playing more than 20-25 minutes a night), but the Mavs still need an energetic backup who can initiate the offense and spell Kidd for those 20-25 minutes a night, and, with Barea gone, they don't have that anymore. For me, this is a team without an identity. Nowitzki is still a top scorer, but there's no real #2 (Marion, for me, is a #3. Terry is a #3 off the bench). Worse, there's no defensive identity without Chandler-- Dirk is a guy who became above average on D with Chandler there. With him gone, he's average to below average. This isn't just a pretty mediocre defensive team, they're not much good on offense either. And, for me, that's a big problem that makes them not just a team that's out of contention, but one that will struggle to make the playoffs.
Now, the team I think I was wrong about is the Spurs. This is a team that's been able to change its supporting cast for years, but has been a contender for almost a decade and a half because they've been able to put very good pieces around Tim Duncan. At this point, Duncan is well into the downside of his career. Last season, the team unexpectedly came together and had a great regular season, but, once the playoffs came around, the Grizzlies were younger, bigger inside, and more energetic. The Grizzlies won the series in 6, and it wasn't really close. This year, I think the Spurs have the depth to be able to pace themselves through the regular season. I still think Duncan is a guy who can give them 20 and 10 on his day. But the key is that, to contend, they want to minimize the nights where Duncan goes 30+ minutes and maximize the number of nights where he can go 20-25 minutes, put up 10 and 6... and they can still win. The first two games have made that look like a real possibility. In their first game, they beat those same Grizzlies by 13, and today they blew out a talented Clippers squad by 25. Duncan's played about half of each game and dropped 10 apiece on those nights. Manu Ginobili (who isn't young himself at 34) has put up 24 each night... but in only 29 minutes of work a night. And even Tony Parker (the youngest of the group at 29) has averaged less than 30 minutes in the first two games. The key has been the Spurs' ability to throw numbers at other teams. Their best lineup still features Duncan, Ginobili and Parker (along with Richard Jefferson and either DeJuan Blair or Tiago Splitter)... but right now, they've got quality backups at every spot. Rookie Kawhi Leonard looks like a terrific pick-- he'll be able to give them defense and rebounding in 15-20 minutes a night. Blair and Splitter are in the big man rotation with Duncan, along with Matt Bonner (who plays decent D and shoots well), while James Anderson and TJ Ford are also good pieces to have on the bench. This is a team with 10 guys who aren't liabilities going 20 minutes in a given night. With all those quality pieces, this is a team that I still think can contend if everyone stays healthy-- so long as Duncan's averaged 25 minutes a night for the season, he may still have another playoff run in him. And, even in the West, with 4 minutes to go in the 4th, I don't know that any team other than Oklahoma City and maybe the Lakers and Clips have a 5 that can contend with the Parker-Ginobili-Jefferson-Blair-Duncan fivesome.
Wizards Outlook
Last, I'm gonna talk a bit about the Wizards who, through two games, look a lot like the same garbage that we've seen on the floor since the Arenas-Jamison-Butler trio was broken up. I think personnel is an issue, but right now, I think coaching is too. John Wall has a lot of upside and a skill set (rumor is he even developed something that looks like a jumper, though I haven't seen it yet this season), but I don't think Flip Saunders is putting him in position to do well. Wall can beat anyone in the league off the dribble. Problem is, as we've seen even against the Nets and the Hawks, he's not going to elevate over shot-blockers to score. And he also hasn't developed a mid-range pull up game the way Derrick Rose has, meaning that he needs guys around him who can hit the three if he drives and kicks, plus bigs who can catch the ball and finish if he dishes on the drive. Wall can drive and dish, but Andray Blatche still isn't getting his hands dirty on the inside, while Javale McGee's offensive game involves trying to dunk everything. And Rashard Lewis's offensive game right now involves spotting up and missing jumpers, and getting in the post and missing off-balance fadeaways. Nick Young can create some offense off the dribble, and he's actually got a pretty good mid-range jumper, but that's about all.
For me, this is a squad that needs to be pick-and-rolling others to death, but I think I could count the number of pick and rolls I saw them run the first two games on one hand. Part of the problem may be that Wall won't hit the 18-foot jumper if his defender goes over the screen, but I think it wouldn't hurt to run it anyway, if anything to open up space for Wall on the perimeter. But right now, the offense still looks like Wall driving all the way to the hoop and missing a contested shot, kicking it to Lewis to miss a contested jumper, Andray Blatche standing 15 feet from the hoop and forcing up garbage, and Nick Young/Jordan Crawford going one on one. As a result, the team hasn't been good on offense. But that's not the entire problem. This also isn't a good defensive team (New Jersey put up 90 in the first game, but New Jersey started Kris Humphries, Johan Petro and Anthony Morrow in that game and played Damion James for 40 minutes; none of those guys would be in a contender's rotation. Kris Humphries is Popeye Jones if Popeye Jones had been married to a Kardashian)-- Andray Blatche stands around and watches the ball, Rashard Lewis is too soft to guard 4s and too slow to guard 3s at this point in his career, and Nick Young and Jordan Crawford aren't interested enough to be better than average defenders on their best nights. Wall stays in front of his guy, is athletic, and has a great wingspan, but having one plus defender in your starting 5 isn't going to make your team good defensively. Add to that Javale McGee's desire to block every shot and allergy to moving his feet, and you've got a defensive squad that isn't exactly built to succeed either.
And, to add insult to injury, the rebounding is terrible. This is a team with size (McGee, Blatche and Lewis are all 6'10"+), but none of them likes to box out, and when McGee goes all out to block a shot, opposing forwards have a field day crashing the glass and getting second-chance buckets. Which is why the Nets out-rebounded them 58-38 (with unathletic, 6'9" Kris Humphries grabbing 16 boards, including SEVEN offensive and 6'7" Damion James adding 14, including 10 offensive), while the Hawks came out with a 45-32 advantage. So this isn't a team that rebounds either. In fact, I don't really know what this team does well.
So where to improve? Well, first I think Saunders has to go. He's not putting the team in a place where it can succeed. But I really think the next step is to dump Blatche. I really don't care what you take for him. Take a second rounder for him. Give him up for a bag of potato chips, I don't care, just get him off the team. Blatche is a talented player-- he's long, he's got good hands, and he's got a solid skill set, range out to 15 feet, and decent passing skills when he wants to give it up. But he makes your team worse. He doesn't play D. He doesn't care enough to be a good rebounder (boxing out isn't his thing). He's a ball stopper on offense (he gets it 15 feet out and then doesn't know what to do with it). And his attitude is a killer. Plus, as much as pundits love to say he's athletic, he's really not very athletic. Blatche is 6'11" and COORDINATED, for sure. He can catch the ball, he can make moves without stumbling over himself, and his footwork is OK. He's not a guy who looks like he's never touched a ball before when he gets a pass. But he's also in no way a particularly good athlete. He doesn't jump exceptionally high, he's not explosive, and he's not quick. Javale McGee IS a terrific athlete, but he's also uncoordinated. Half the time, he looks like he doesn't know what his limbs are doing. But that's beside the point. If I were building this team, I'd dump Blatche, throw Chris Singleton into the lineup at the 3, and maybe even introduce Jan Vesely into the starting lineup once he gets healthy (or, if not, throw in Rony Turiaf). Wall's strength is his blazing quickness in the open floor-- this is a team whose offense needs to be built around that. Nick Young is a decent half-court scorer, but I think he can also run. Singleton can do the same (and occasionally hit a three). Vesely is a 6'11" horse who can run the floor as well as any guy his size. And McGee can get up and down the floor, too. So long as this team stinks, you might as well turn it into an entertaining circus. The instant anyone grabs a board, they should be looking to outlet the ball to Wall and take off. A break with Wall leading and Young (or Singleton) and Vesely on the flanks, with McGee trailing is scary. Especially since there aren't many 5s in the league who can beat McGee down the floor. I think, if you're building a team around Wall, that's the way to do it. And the first step is dumping Blatche.
Showing posts with label Wizards. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wizards. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Saturday, July 9, 2011
What should the Wizards do?
So I wrote up a post recently about the NBA's free agent period, and I realized that I didn't even consider any of the guys available for my favorite team-- the Wizards. Which got me to thinking about why that was. Now, the Wiz were the third-worst team in the league last year. It's no secret that we suck. Which makes it interesting that I didn't see any of the available free agents as an improvement for the squad. Why is that? Well, I think to figure out what the Wiz lack, it's a good idea to figure out what they don't lack. Which calls for a breakdown by position.
PG: John Wall is our cornerstone and really the only un-tradeable asset. Which isn't to say that he's a finished product. He struggled quite a bit last season, turned the ball over way too much, and didn't make enough jump shots to keep defenses honest. That he didn't quite live up to a lot of fans' expectations, though, just speaks to how high the bar was set for him, and to the inevitable comparisons to his fellow #1-overall pick and rookie sensation Blake Griffin. Griffin ran away with the Rookie of the Year award (though it's worth pointing out that he's two years older than Wall). But that speaks both to his greater maturity, and to the fact that I think it's easier to adapt to the league as a power forward (especially for a physical freak like Griffin) than it is for a point guard tasked with running a team. Wall already might be the fastest player in the league going end to end with the ball. He's a very, very good distributor, and can get to the hoop almost at will. Sure, he shot barely 40% from the field and under 30% from three, but he averaged better than 16 points and 8 assists (better than reigning league MVP Derrick Rose as a rookie!), played solid D, and put in 100% effort despite the team around him being... pretty bad. And that's putting it nicely. But he's got everything you want physically and skill-wise: he's long, he's super-athletic, he's got a good attitude, and he can both score and create. I still think Wall is a cornerstone to build the team around, and if he develops a jumper, he'll be scary. And in second-round pick Shelvin Mack, I think we've got a guy who can run the point for 10-12 minutes a game in spot duty, knock down open jumpers, and run the team adequately. So I think we're pretty set at this spot, at least.
SG: This position needs an upgrade for the long run. Nick Young isn't as terrible as a lot of Wiz fans think-- I think he could develop into a poor man's Jamal Crawford who can give you 12 points a game off the bench. But he's not a good starting shooting guard. He's not a terrible shooter (44% from the field, 39% from three), but he must lead the league in long, off-balance 2-point shots (aka the worst shot in basketball). And if he's not scoring, he's not bringing anything to the table. He's a mediocre rebounder for an off-guard, he doesn't care about defense, he doesn't create shots for others, and he's not a good enough scorer to take over a game just on that end. He'll give you the occasional 35-point explosion, but also more than his fair share of 5/14 shooting nights. And he gets more turnovers than assists. Jordan Crawford is similar to Young-- he's a very high usage player (when Young went down, Crawford scored almost as much as Young), but, unlike Young, he was very inefficient (39% from the field, 24% from three; and he shot 4 threes a game!), and his rebounding wasn't much better. He's a bit more interested on defense, and he doesn't turn the ball over as much and can create a bit, but I think he's ideally a rotation player, too. So one of the two has to go, and we still need a starter. I suppose Josh Howard is worth mentioning here, and he was a borderline All-Star 5 years ago, but now he's a walking injury, and I don't think we'll get much out of him. If we suck again and get lucky in the lottery, I'd like to pick up Harrison Barnes or Jeremy Lamb to play this spot next year, since what we have won't cut it, and the guys who are available on the market are either older versions of what we already have (Jamal Crawford and Jason Richardson, kind of) or headcases that our young team doesn't need (JR Smith).
SF: Technically, both of our first-round picks this season can play this spot. I'm hopeful at least one of them pans out, so it won't be a concern going forward. Jan Vesely (the 6th overall pick) is probably ideally a 4-man, since he's 6-11 and doesn't have much of a jump shot. Vesely is 21 years old, but at this point, I think he's still a couple of years away from being a real contributor. I've only seen Vesely on YouTube and NBA Draft clips but, honestly, I wasn't very impressed. Vesely is obviously super-athletic. He's long, he runs the floor, and he can jump out of the gym. In terms of athleticism, the guy is a beast. The problem is, the rest of his game just doesn't impress me. On his YouTube clips, he struggles to catch routine entry passes into the post, which tells me that he might have small hands (a concern for a big), and he fumbles way too many passes for my liking (a problem if he's going to be flanking Wall on the break). His rebounding numbers also weren't very impressive in Europe, and his free throw shooting was horrific (under 50%). Defensively, he looked slow on his rotations, and was frequently off balance. He had the length and athleticism to recover in Europe, but if he makes those mistakes in the NBA, guys will blow right by him. Now, he's got a ton of upside, but I think he'll have to develop quite a bit, and won't play more than 15 minutes a game this coming season. Chris Singleton is, I think, more ready to contribute right now. Unlike Vesely, he doesn't have star potential, but he's got a very defined role. Singleton is pretty big for a 3 (6-8, 230), and while his offensive game is unrefined, he's a very good defender who's big enough to hold his own against most NBA 4's and quick enough to guard the 2 if need be. I think he could be a Shane Battier type of player if he develops a consistent spot-up jumper. At worst, he'll be a solid defensive stopper for us. I think, given that we won't be competing next year, no free agents make sense, since getting Vesely and Singleton playing time so they can develop is key. That's also why I think we should phase out Rashard Lewis. We took on Lewis essentially because Ernie Grunfeld was determined to dump Gilbert Arenas. Lewis used to be a very good scorer, but right now, Lewis is just not a useful player on a young team. He's a 6-10 spot up three-point shooter who doesn't do much else particularly well. Hopefully, we can turn him into a 10-minute a night veteran who will be happy to collect his paycheck and mentor the young guys...
PF: Vesely can also play here, but this is where we've got a few young projects (Trevor Booker, Kevin Seraphin) and Andray Blatche. Booker and Seraphin are undersized post players (6-8 and 6-9 respectively). Booker is very athletic, and might turn into a solid frontcourt backup, but I think what Seraphin brings to the table is 6 fouls. His game is completely undeveloped at this point. Honestly, it's so undeveloped I can't even tell what his upside is. The two of them might add up to one decent backup big, but I'd still rather have them on the team than Blatche. Blatche doesn't turn 25 until next month, so he's still technically a young guy, and he's got some impressive skills (6-11, athletic, good skills), but I want him off the roster as soon as possible. The guy just isn't a winner. Now, you can look at his numbers and think that Blatche is a good PF. He's improved them every year, and averaged almost 17 and 8 this past season. But, in his case, the numbers lie. Blatche spends half of every season slacking off, pouting, not caring on defense, and generally putting himself before the team. For the last 10 games, he'll average 22 and 10 and look like a potential star. That got him a contract extension, which he used to keep doing the same thing. So I'll say it now: if your starting power forward is Andray Blatche, you won't be a good team. I'm hoping we'll be able to trade him for a bag of potato chips and a juice box. Or if we can't do that, just cut him and see what we can do with Vesely, Booker and Seraphin rotating at the 4. Yes, we'll suck, but we suck anyway, and at least we won't have Blatche's corrosive attitude on the roster. Ideally, Vesely will develop into the PF of the future, but if not, I wouldn't mind drafting one in one of the next two years (Jared Sullinger might be around when we draft next year, and I think he'll be a solid starting 4 in the league). But the key here is dumping Blatche. This is also a spot where a free agent makes sense. Next to Wall, I think the ideal is a guy who plays like Kenyon Martin used to play when he was on the Nets with Jason Kidd-- a guy who defends, rebounds, and can get out on the break and run the floor. I guess if David Lee played some D, he would be the closest thing to that in the league right now.
C: Javale McGee is the starter here right now. It appears that Ernie loves him. McGee is pretty young (23), and he had a statistically decent season last year (10 points, 8 boards a game). His upside is obvious. He's long (7 feet), he's super athletic (everyone who watched knows he should have won the dunk contest last year), and he's a good help-side shot blocker. He is, however, far from a finished product. Offensively, his game consists of dunking. He has no post moves. He's not as good a rebounder as a guy his size should be. And, while he's good blocking shots on the help side, he's not a very good post defender. He doesn't have a strong base, he bites on too many pump fakes, and even in a league starved of good post scorers, the better centers handle him. If he gets a whole lot stronger, I've heard people compare him to Tyson Chandler, but I'm a lot higher on Chandler than I was on McGee. And if the rumor that Grunfeld rejected a straight-up McGee for the second overall pick offer is true, he should be fired (I would have traded McGee and the 6 for the 2...). But McGee has the upside to be a solid starting center in the league, so upgrading there isn't necessarily a priority. On the other hand, there have been rumors among Wizards fan that McGee is being shopped in a package for Dwight Howard. If true, that would be incredible. Howard isn't necessarily the best fit next to Wall-- Wall is built to run and Howard is more of a half-court player, even though he's probably the league's best physical specimen. If we could pull off a trade for Howard, it would transform the team instantly. Howard is only two years older than McGee, and a starting 5 of Wall, Harrison Barnes, Singleton, Vesely, and Howard would be downright scary, assuming Vesely and Singleton develop into solid starters. Of course, all that is idle speculation at this point, but if there's one player that could instantly transform the Wiz into a playoff team, it's Howard.
So, realistically, what are our prospects for the future? I think Wall is entrenched at the 1, Singleton is the future starter at the 3, hopefully Vesely will be the same at the 4, and, for now at least, McGee is our guy at center. One of Booker/Seraphin should be our top big off the bench, and one of Young/Crawford should be our first guard off the bench. For next season, this clearly isn't a playoff roster, so it'll probably be a trip back to the lottery. My hope is we get one of Barnes and Jeremy Lamb to fill the starting 2 spot long term, which makes for a roster that looks something like this 2-3 years from now.
PG: Wall (starter), Mack (backup)
SG: Barnes/Lamb (starter), Young/Crawford (backup)
SF: Singleton/Vesely (starter), Singleton/Vesely (backup
PF: Vesely/FA signing (starter), Booker/Seraphin (backup)
C: McGee/maybe Dwight Howard...? (starter), Booker/Seraphin (backup)
So I think we're still 2 or 3 pieces away, but for the first time in about 5 years, I've got some hope that we're building a future playoff contender.
PG: John Wall is our cornerstone and really the only un-tradeable asset. Which isn't to say that he's a finished product. He struggled quite a bit last season, turned the ball over way too much, and didn't make enough jump shots to keep defenses honest. That he didn't quite live up to a lot of fans' expectations, though, just speaks to how high the bar was set for him, and to the inevitable comparisons to his fellow #1-overall pick and rookie sensation Blake Griffin. Griffin ran away with the Rookie of the Year award (though it's worth pointing out that he's two years older than Wall). But that speaks both to his greater maturity, and to the fact that I think it's easier to adapt to the league as a power forward (especially for a physical freak like Griffin) than it is for a point guard tasked with running a team. Wall already might be the fastest player in the league going end to end with the ball. He's a very, very good distributor, and can get to the hoop almost at will. Sure, he shot barely 40% from the field and under 30% from three, but he averaged better than 16 points and 8 assists (better than reigning league MVP Derrick Rose as a rookie!), played solid D, and put in 100% effort despite the team around him being... pretty bad. And that's putting it nicely. But he's got everything you want physically and skill-wise: he's long, he's super-athletic, he's got a good attitude, and he can both score and create. I still think Wall is a cornerstone to build the team around, and if he develops a jumper, he'll be scary. And in second-round pick Shelvin Mack, I think we've got a guy who can run the point for 10-12 minutes a game in spot duty, knock down open jumpers, and run the team adequately. So I think we're pretty set at this spot, at least.
SG: This position needs an upgrade for the long run. Nick Young isn't as terrible as a lot of Wiz fans think-- I think he could develop into a poor man's Jamal Crawford who can give you 12 points a game off the bench. But he's not a good starting shooting guard. He's not a terrible shooter (44% from the field, 39% from three), but he must lead the league in long, off-balance 2-point shots (aka the worst shot in basketball). And if he's not scoring, he's not bringing anything to the table. He's a mediocre rebounder for an off-guard, he doesn't care about defense, he doesn't create shots for others, and he's not a good enough scorer to take over a game just on that end. He'll give you the occasional 35-point explosion, but also more than his fair share of 5/14 shooting nights. And he gets more turnovers than assists. Jordan Crawford is similar to Young-- he's a very high usage player (when Young went down, Crawford scored almost as much as Young), but, unlike Young, he was very inefficient (39% from the field, 24% from three; and he shot 4 threes a game!), and his rebounding wasn't much better. He's a bit more interested on defense, and he doesn't turn the ball over as much and can create a bit, but I think he's ideally a rotation player, too. So one of the two has to go, and we still need a starter. I suppose Josh Howard is worth mentioning here, and he was a borderline All-Star 5 years ago, but now he's a walking injury, and I don't think we'll get much out of him. If we suck again and get lucky in the lottery, I'd like to pick up Harrison Barnes or Jeremy Lamb to play this spot next year, since what we have won't cut it, and the guys who are available on the market are either older versions of what we already have (Jamal Crawford and Jason Richardson, kind of) or headcases that our young team doesn't need (JR Smith).
SF: Technically, both of our first-round picks this season can play this spot. I'm hopeful at least one of them pans out, so it won't be a concern going forward. Jan Vesely (the 6th overall pick) is probably ideally a 4-man, since he's 6-11 and doesn't have much of a jump shot. Vesely is 21 years old, but at this point, I think he's still a couple of years away from being a real contributor. I've only seen Vesely on YouTube and NBA Draft clips but, honestly, I wasn't very impressed. Vesely is obviously super-athletic. He's long, he runs the floor, and he can jump out of the gym. In terms of athleticism, the guy is a beast. The problem is, the rest of his game just doesn't impress me. On his YouTube clips, he struggles to catch routine entry passes into the post, which tells me that he might have small hands (a concern for a big), and he fumbles way too many passes for my liking (a problem if he's going to be flanking Wall on the break). His rebounding numbers also weren't very impressive in Europe, and his free throw shooting was horrific (under 50%). Defensively, he looked slow on his rotations, and was frequently off balance. He had the length and athleticism to recover in Europe, but if he makes those mistakes in the NBA, guys will blow right by him. Now, he's got a ton of upside, but I think he'll have to develop quite a bit, and won't play more than 15 minutes a game this coming season. Chris Singleton is, I think, more ready to contribute right now. Unlike Vesely, he doesn't have star potential, but he's got a very defined role. Singleton is pretty big for a 3 (6-8, 230), and while his offensive game is unrefined, he's a very good defender who's big enough to hold his own against most NBA 4's and quick enough to guard the 2 if need be. I think he could be a Shane Battier type of player if he develops a consistent spot-up jumper. At worst, he'll be a solid defensive stopper for us. I think, given that we won't be competing next year, no free agents make sense, since getting Vesely and Singleton playing time so they can develop is key. That's also why I think we should phase out Rashard Lewis. We took on Lewis essentially because Ernie Grunfeld was determined to dump Gilbert Arenas. Lewis used to be a very good scorer, but right now, Lewis is just not a useful player on a young team. He's a 6-10 spot up three-point shooter who doesn't do much else particularly well. Hopefully, we can turn him into a 10-minute a night veteran who will be happy to collect his paycheck and mentor the young guys...
PF: Vesely can also play here, but this is where we've got a few young projects (Trevor Booker, Kevin Seraphin) and Andray Blatche. Booker and Seraphin are undersized post players (6-8 and 6-9 respectively). Booker is very athletic, and might turn into a solid frontcourt backup, but I think what Seraphin brings to the table is 6 fouls. His game is completely undeveloped at this point. Honestly, it's so undeveloped I can't even tell what his upside is. The two of them might add up to one decent backup big, but I'd still rather have them on the team than Blatche. Blatche doesn't turn 25 until next month, so he's still technically a young guy, and he's got some impressive skills (6-11, athletic, good skills), but I want him off the roster as soon as possible. The guy just isn't a winner. Now, you can look at his numbers and think that Blatche is a good PF. He's improved them every year, and averaged almost 17 and 8 this past season. But, in his case, the numbers lie. Blatche spends half of every season slacking off, pouting, not caring on defense, and generally putting himself before the team. For the last 10 games, he'll average 22 and 10 and look like a potential star. That got him a contract extension, which he used to keep doing the same thing. So I'll say it now: if your starting power forward is Andray Blatche, you won't be a good team. I'm hoping we'll be able to trade him for a bag of potato chips and a juice box. Or if we can't do that, just cut him and see what we can do with Vesely, Booker and Seraphin rotating at the 4. Yes, we'll suck, but we suck anyway, and at least we won't have Blatche's corrosive attitude on the roster. Ideally, Vesely will develop into the PF of the future, but if not, I wouldn't mind drafting one in one of the next two years (Jared Sullinger might be around when we draft next year, and I think he'll be a solid starting 4 in the league). But the key here is dumping Blatche. This is also a spot where a free agent makes sense. Next to Wall, I think the ideal is a guy who plays like Kenyon Martin used to play when he was on the Nets with Jason Kidd-- a guy who defends, rebounds, and can get out on the break and run the floor. I guess if David Lee played some D, he would be the closest thing to that in the league right now.
C: Javale McGee is the starter here right now. It appears that Ernie loves him. McGee is pretty young (23), and he had a statistically decent season last year (10 points, 8 boards a game). His upside is obvious. He's long (7 feet), he's super athletic (everyone who watched knows he should have won the dunk contest last year), and he's a good help-side shot blocker. He is, however, far from a finished product. Offensively, his game consists of dunking. He has no post moves. He's not as good a rebounder as a guy his size should be. And, while he's good blocking shots on the help side, he's not a very good post defender. He doesn't have a strong base, he bites on too many pump fakes, and even in a league starved of good post scorers, the better centers handle him. If he gets a whole lot stronger, I've heard people compare him to Tyson Chandler, but I'm a lot higher on Chandler than I was on McGee. And if the rumor that Grunfeld rejected a straight-up McGee for the second overall pick offer is true, he should be fired (I would have traded McGee and the 6 for the 2...). But McGee has the upside to be a solid starting center in the league, so upgrading there isn't necessarily a priority. On the other hand, there have been rumors among Wizards fan that McGee is being shopped in a package for Dwight Howard. If true, that would be incredible. Howard isn't necessarily the best fit next to Wall-- Wall is built to run and Howard is more of a half-court player, even though he's probably the league's best physical specimen. If we could pull off a trade for Howard, it would transform the team instantly. Howard is only two years older than McGee, and a starting 5 of Wall, Harrison Barnes, Singleton, Vesely, and Howard would be downright scary, assuming Vesely and Singleton develop into solid starters. Of course, all that is idle speculation at this point, but if there's one player that could instantly transform the Wiz into a playoff team, it's Howard.
So, realistically, what are our prospects for the future? I think Wall is entrenched at the 1, Singleton is the future starter at the 3, hopefully Vesely will be the same at the 4, and, for now at least, McGee is our guy at center. One of Booker/Seraphin should be our top big off the bench, and one of Young/Crawford should be our first guard off the bench. For next season, this clearly isn't a playoff roster, so it'll probably be a trip back to the lottery. My hope is we get one of Barnes and Jeremy Lamb to fill the starting 2 spot long term, which makes for a roster that looks something like this 2-3 years from now.
PG: Wall (starter), Mack (backup)
SG: Barnes/Lamb (starter), Young/Crawford (backup)
SF: Singleton/Vesely (starter), Singleton/Vesely (backup
PF: Vesely/FA signing (starter), Booker/Seraphin (backup)
C: McGee/maybe Dwight Howard...? (starter), Booker/Seraphin (backup)
So I think we're still 2 or 3 pieces away, but for the first time in about 5 years, I've got some hope that we're building a future playoff contender.
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